Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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Chapter 3 the Pasture class increased from 42.5 to 47.9% its relative contribution, while the Agriculture class decreased its relative contribution from 55.9 to 49.9% from 2007 to 2008. 7 Finally we can conclude that the remote sensing images obtained systematically by the Landsat and CBERS satellites enabled an accurate identi�cation of land use classes de�ned in this work, which were displaced for the recent and most relevant sugarcane expansion observed in Brazil. �e visual interpretation of the remote sensing images on a computer screen is hard-working, but it allows an accurate classi�cation of the areas of interest producing a reliable thematic classi�cation through an objective and measurable procedure. 4.2. Micro-regional secondary data �e dynamics of agricultural area and sugarcane in particular is presented in Table 4. Sugarcane expansion from 2002 to 2006 in the ten states analyzed reached 1,077 thousand ha, and more than half of this number occurred in São Paulo State. From this total expansion, 773 thousand ha displaced pasture land and 103 thousand ha displaced other crops, while only 125 thousand ha were not able to be allocated over previous productive areas. Total agricultural area growth – the sum of all crops, including sugarcane, and pastures – in the period was 3,376 thousand ha. By looking at Table 4 it is possible to state that sugarcane expansion is relatively small comparing to total agricultural expansion in many states, particularly in Mato Grosso and Tocantins (about 1% of total agricultural expansion) and Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul (about 16% of total agricultural expansion). Expansion of agriculture as a whole means new areas are converted to productive uses, which were former natural landscapes (forests, Cerrado savannah, natural pastureland, and so on) or idle areas. In those states where total agricultural area decreased over the analyzed period (Minas Gerais, Goiás, Maranhão and Piauí), there is no clear evidence that sugarcane expansion had taken place over non anthropized areas. It is also important to state the signi�cant proportion of sugarcane expansion over pasture, which represents 72% of total sugarcane expansion. By state level, also 72% of sugarcane increased over pasture in São Paulo, while in Minas Gerais, Paraná and Goiás these numbers were 51, 63, and 90%, respectively. �is result is quite di�erent from the one presented in Section 4.1 and a possible reason to explain this distortion is presented in Section 4.3. 7 A recent study published by CONAB (2008), stated that the sugarcane expansion in the 2007 harvest in Brazil, totaling 653,722 ha, has occurred mainly over pastureland, 64.7%, followed by maize and soybean, 21.8%. New areas were responsible for 2.4% of area used for sugarcane expansion. �ese data were collected through 343 interviews with sugarcane mill managers. 80 Sugarcane ethanol
Prospects of the sugarcane expansion in Brazil Table 4. Area of crops and pasture displaced for sugarcane expansion by State, from 2002 to 2006 (1,000 hectares). State Total agricultural expansion It is important to note that the shi�-share methodology is not su�ciently robust to explain the re-allocation of land in regions that are subjected to expansions in all categories of products. In those regions, new land has been incorporated into agricultural production, which might be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture or to the use of previous idle areas. However, the model is not able to identify this conversion since data on deforestation are not necessarily available for the same period of time and for the same geographical unit. Even if we could assume that 100 percent of the expanded area results in natural vegetation conversion, it would not be possible to isolate the contribution of the sugarcane for this process. One possible alternative to explain the not allocated area presented above would be to assume a partial indirect e�ect at a micro-regional level. �e indirect e�ect is partial because the amount of not allocated area of sugarcane would be allocated in the amount of new area proportionally of the share of sugarcane expansion to the total agriculture expansion. �e assumption that sugarcane is expanding in not anthropized area, however, is not corroborated by satellite images as discussed in the previous section. 4.3. Environmental licensing reports Sugarcane expansion Total growth Over pasture Over other crops N.A. 1 São Paulo 146 639 460 115 65 Minas Gerais -1,251 160 157 2 1 Paraná 535 92 58 2 32 Goiás -775 63 56 0.1 6 Mato Grosso do Sul 281 45 44 0.6 0.1 Mato Grosso 4,945 31 18 3 10 Bahia 124 27 19 5 3 Maranhão -655 16 12 0 5 Piauí -122 3 0.2 0 2 Tocantins 148 1 0.5 0 0.6 Total 3,376 1,077 773 103 125 1 N.A. means not allocated over previous productive area. As a �rst result of this �eld research, it was possible to count and locate new mills projects in six di�erent states (Table 5). Goiás is the state that has more projects under analysis, which Sugarcane ethanol 81
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Sugarcane ethanol Contributions to
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Table of contents Foreword 11 José
Page 5:
Chapter 8 �e global impacts of US
Page 8 and 9:
Foreword �e use of biofuels as a
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Executive summary Do biofuels help
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Executive summary 12. Projections o
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Chapter 1 Introduction to sugarcane
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol A
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol C
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol F
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol H
Page 26 and 27: Chapter 2 Production (million tons)
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 2 Table 2. Sugarcane produc
Page 30 and 31: Chapter 2 Harvested area (million h
Page 32 and 33: Chapter 2 million hectares 8 7 6 5
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Table 5. Global significa
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 (FAOSTAT, 2008). �e lan
Page 38 and 39: Chapter 2 indicating that sugarcane
Page 40 and 41: Chapter 2 and vinasse produced duri
Page 42 and 43: Chapter 2 • • • • Harvested
Page 44 and 45: Chapter 2 2.2. AEZ assessment of la
Page 46 and 47: Chapter 2 The quantified descriptio
Page 48 and 49: Chapter 2 Table 8 summarizes by reg
Page 50 and 51: Chapter 2 Table 9. Suitability of u
Page 52 and 53: Chapter 2 Table 10. Suitability of
Page 54 and 55: Chapter 2 of bio-diversity and land
Page 56 and 57: Chapter 2 FAO, 1987. 1948-1985 Worl
Page 58 and 59: Chapter 2 Smeets, E., M. Junginger,
Page 60 and 61: Chapter 3 Considering that this deb
Page 62 and 63: Chapter 3 1,000 ha 9,000 8,000 7,00
Page 64 and 65: Chapter 3 Another source of data on
Page 66 and 67: Chapter 3 Figure 3. Different land
Page 68 and 69: Chapter 3 1-Pastureand crops expans
Page 70 and 71: Chapter 3 Given that the model is u
Page 72 and 73: Chapter 3 to the case studies; (d)
Page 74 and 75: Chapter 3 Mato Grosso do Sul in 200
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 3 Table 5. Number of sugarc
Page 80 and 81: Chapter 3 of 12.6% from 2001 to 200
Page 82 and 83: Chapter 3 Table 6. South-Centre: ex
Page 84 and 85: Chapter 3 4.5. Options for approach
Page 86 and 87: Chapter 3 states that have lost pas
Page 88 and 89: Chapter 3 It is important to contex
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 4 Mitigation of GHG emissio
Page 93 and 94: Table 1. Basic data: sugarcane prod
Page 95 and 96: Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
Page 97 and 98: GHG emission (kg CO 2 eq/m 3 etOH)
Page 101 and 102: Table 7. Soil carbon content for di
Page 105 and 106: 5. Conclusions Mitigation of GHG em
Page 107: Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
Page 110 and 111: Chapter 5 Oil reserves - Gasoline/d
Page 112 and 113: Chapter 5 in research and developme
Page 114 and 115: Chapter 5 Table 3. Summary of main
Page 116 and 117: Chapter 5 3. Environmental indicato
Page 118 and 119: Chapter 5 Table 4. Carbon stock in
Page 120 and 121: Chapter 5 3.2. Water Total carbon i
Page 122 and 123: Chapter 5 3.3. Soil and fertilizers
Page 124 and 125: Chapter 5 3.4. Management of diseas
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Chapter 5 Table 10. Sugarcane and v
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Chapter 5 in the implementation of
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Chapter 5 Table 11. Continued. Crit
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Chapter 5 Brazilian Government. Lei
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Chapter 5 São Paulo State Governme
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Chapter 6 2. Development of the eth
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Chapter 6 blends by car manufacture
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Chapter 6 Brazil have been roughly
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Chapter 6 Overall there are few di
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Chapter 6 3.2.1. The impact of exis
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Chapter 6 �e use of ethanol in he
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Chapter 6 cropping systems that pro
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Chapter 6 certainty, the supply of
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Chapter 6 De Vries, B.J.M., D.P. va
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Chapter 7 Biofuel conversion techno
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies In
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Biofuel conversion technologies the
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Biofuel conversion technologies Imp
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Biofuel conversion technologies Pro
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Investment costs (Euro/kWth input c
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4.2. Greenhouse gas balances Biofue
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Reduction in CO equivalent emission
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies pot
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Chapter 8 The global impacts of US
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The global impacts of US and EU bio
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Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Table 1. Change in output due to EU
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Forest cover Pasture cover USEU 201
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Chapter 9 also risks and serious tr
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Chapter 9 Box 2. Bioethanol stoves
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Chapter 9 �e highest impact on po
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Chapter 9 the increased generation
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Chapter 9 o�ers to support the MD
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Chapter 9 Price variation (%) 14 12
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Chapter 9 Dufey et al., 2007a). Leg
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Chapter 9 manufactured directly fro
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Chapter 9 in mechanical aid for the
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Chapter 9 Table 1. Import tariffs o
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Chapter 9 3.8. Improving efficiency
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Chapter 9 some minimum transport in
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Chapter 9 IEA, 2004. Biofuels for T
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Chapter 10 Why are current food pri
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Why are current food prices so high
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2.4 Long-term drivers of supply Why
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3.1. Effects on the supply side Why
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3.3 Policy responses to rising food
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3.4. Other effects • Why are curr
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- - - - Why are current food prices
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18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5. The fut
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• • • Why are current food pr
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6.1. Policy implications Why are cu
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Why are current food prices so high
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Authors Dr. Marcos Adami, senior re
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Keyword index A Africa 204, 205, 20
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M maize 20, 83, 104, 173, 184, 187,
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Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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