Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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Chapter 10 • aimed to restrict supply, e.g. production quota or set-aside requirements, are instruments designed for a world with declining prices, but which may act to reinforce prices in case of food shortages. Low prices in the last decades did not provide an incentive to invest in productivity enhancing technologies. 3.2. Effects on the demand side Compared to the variability of agricultural supply, the demand of agri-food products is rather inelastic. For most agricultural commodities price and income elasticities are small, i.e. long-term demand for primary agricultural products is more determined by population growth and less by income growth. Within the last years the demand for agri-food products have been determined by the following driver: • Constant demand in Europe and Northern America with an increase in demand in Asian countries • Change in diet in emerging economies. • Additional demand for biofuels: – 5% of global oilseed production is processed to biodiesel or is used directly for transportation. – 4.5% of global cereal production is used for ethanol production. – �erefore, this marginal extra demand triggered the markets. – However, biofuels are not new. Ethanol based on sugarcane exists in an economically pro�table way in Brazil for a long time. – Increasing food and feedstock prices make biofuels less pro�table and food more pro�table. �is shi�s production back to food (in US is this already visible; Trostle, 2008, p.17). With current high prices for soybeans in the US margins for biodiesel became already negative and the biodiesel production slowed down [see presentation of Gerald A. Bange (USDA) on the Agricultural Markets Roundtable held April 22, 2008 Washington, DC at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission]. �e development of both – supply and demand side – contribute to the development of stocks which is illustrated in the following Figure 9. �e trend of a declining stock to use ratio as has increased and stocks for wheat are currently running on empty. �is implies that all the shocks mentioned above could not be mitigated by using stocks but lead immediately to price increases. Furthermore, it enabled speculation (with stocks available there would have been less room for speculation) 234 Sugarcane ethanol
3.3 Policy responses to rising food prices • • 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1960/1961 1965/1966 1970/1971 1975/1976 1980/1981 1985/1986 Wheat Corn 1990/1991 Why are current food prices so high? 1995/1996 2000/2001 2005/2006 Figure 9. Development of stock to use ratio, 1960-2007. Source: US Department of Agriculture PSD View database, June 2008. �e rapidly increasing world prices for food grains, feed grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oils are causing domestic food prices at the consumer level to rise in many countries. In response to rising food prices, some countries are beginning to take protective policy measures designed to reduce the impact of rising world food commodity prices on their own consumers. However, such measures typically force greater adjustments and higher prices onto global markets. In the fall of 2007, some exporting countries made policy changes designed to discourage exports so as to keep domestic production within the country. �e objective was to increase domestic food supplies and restrain increases in food prices. Table 1 depicts a partial list of these policy changes. Sugarcane ethanol 235
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Sugarcane ethanol Contributions to
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Table of contents Foreword 11 José
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Chapter 8 �e global impacts of US
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Foreword �e use of biofuels as a
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Executive summary Do biofuels help
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Executive summary 12. Projections o
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Chapter 1 Introduction to sugarcane
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol A
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol C
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol F
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol H
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Chapter 2 Production (million tons)
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Chapter 2 Table 2. Sugarcane produc
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Chapter 2 Harvested area (million h
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Chapter 2 million hectares 8 7 6 5
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Chapter 2 Table 5. Global significa
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Chapter 2 (FAOSTAT, 2008). �e lan
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Chapter 2 indicating that sugarcane
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Chapter 2 and vinasse produced duri
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Chapter 2 • • • • Harvested
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Chapter 2 2.2. AEZ assessment of la
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Chapter 2 The quantified descriptio
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Chapter 2 Table 8 summarizes by reg
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Chapter 2 Table 9. Suitability of u
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Chapter 2 Table 10. Suitability of
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Chapter 2 of bio-diversity and land
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Chapter 2 FAO, 1987. 1948-1985 Worl
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Chapter 2 Smeets, E., M. Junginger,
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Chapter 3 Considering that this deb
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Chapter 3 1,000 ha 9,000 8,000 7,00
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Chapter 3 Another source of data on
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Chapter 3 Figure 3. Different land
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Chapter 3 1-Pastureand crops expans
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Chapter 3 Given that the model is u
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Chapter 3 to the case studies; (d)
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Chapter 3 Mato Grosso do Sul in 200
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Chapter 3 the Pasture class increas
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Chapter 3 Table 5. Number of sugarc
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Chapter 3 of 12.6% from 2001 to 200
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Chapter 3 Table 6. South-Centre: ex
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Chapter 3 4.5. Options for approach
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Chapter 3 states that have lost pas
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Chapter 3 It is important to contex
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Chapter 4 Mitigation of GHG emissio
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Table 1. Basic data: sugarcane prod
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Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
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GHG emission (kg CO 2 eq/m 3 etOH)
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Table 7. Soil carbon content for di
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5. Conclusions Mitigation of GHG em
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Chapter 5 Oil reserves - Gasoline/d
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Chapter 5 in research and developme
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Chapter 5 Table 3. Summary of main
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Chapter 5 3. Environmental indicato
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Chapter 5 Table 4. Carbon stock in
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Chapter 5 3.2. Water Total carbon i
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Chapter 5 3.3. Soil and fertilizers
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Chapter 5 3.4. Management of diseas
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Chapter 5 Table 10. Sugarcane and v
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Chapter 5 in the implementation of
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Chapter 5 Table 11. Continued. Crit
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Chapter 5 Brazilian Government. Lei
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Chapter 5 São Paulo State Governme
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Chapter 6 2. Development of the eth
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Chapter 6 blends by car manufacture
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Chapter 6 Brazil have been roughly
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Chapter 6 Overall there are few di
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Chapter 6 3.2.1. The impact of exis
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Chapter 6 �e use of ethanol in he
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Chapter 6 cropping systems that pro
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Chapter 6 certainty, the supply of
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Chapter 6 De Vries, B.J.M., D.P. va
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Chapter 7 Biofuel conversion techno
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies In
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Biofuel conversion technologies the
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Biofuel conversion technologies Imp
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Biofuel conversion technologies Pro
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Investment costs (Euro/kWth input c
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4.2. Greenhouse gas balances Biofue
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Reduction in CO equivalent emission
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies pot
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Chapter 8 The global impacts of US
Page 179 and 180: The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 187 and 188: Table 1. Change in output due to EU
Page 191 and 192: Forest cover Pasture cover USEU 201
Page 193: The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 196 and 197: Chapter 9 also risks and serious tr
Page 198 and 199: Chapter 9 Box 2. Bioethanol stoves
Page 200 and 201: Chapter 9 �e highest impact on po
Page 202 and 203: Chapter 9 the increased generation
Page 204 and 205: Chapter 9 o�ers to support the MD
Page 206 and 207: Chapter 9 Price variation (%) 14 12
Page 208 and 209: Chapter 9 Dufey et al., 2007a). Leg
Page 210 and 211: Chapter 9 manufactured directly fro
Page 212 and 213: Chapter 9 in mechanical aid for the
Page 214 and 215: Chapter 9 Table 1. Import tariffs o
Page 216 and 217: Chapter 9 3.8. Improving efficiency
Page 218 and 219: Chapter 9 some minimum transport in
Page 220 and 221: Chapter 9 IEA, 2004. Biofuels for T
Page 223 and 224: Chapter 10 Why are current food pri
Page 225 and 226: Why are current food prices so high
Page 227 and 228: 2.4 Long-term drivers of supply Why
Page 229: 3.1. Effects on the supply side Why
Page 233 and 234: 3.4. Other effects • Why are curr
Page 235 and 236: - - - - Why are current food prices
Page 237 and 238: 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5. The fut
Page 239 and 240: • • • Why are current food pr
Page 241 and 242: 6.1. Policy implications Why are cu
Page 243: Why are current food prices so high
Page 247 and 248: Authors Dr. Marcos Adami, senior re
Page 249 and 250: Keyword index A Africa 204, 205, 20
Page 251: M maize 20, 83, 104, 173, 184, 187,
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Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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