Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

Prospects of the sugarcane expansion in Brazil
crops is larger than the amount of land displaced by sugarcane, indirect e�ect cannot be
quanti�ed. �is is also the situation taking place in Brazil.
For global scale considerations for ILUC, however, the analysis is much more complex. In
this case, it is even more di�cult to determine the proper scale pertinent, considering that
many countries produce and trade di�erent products that can be related to ILUC analysis.
Regarding to shi�ing biomass use, Brazilian sugar production has also increased from 2002
to 2006, from 22.5 to 29.6 million tons, according to UNICA (2008). Meats and all grains
production have also increased signi�cantly in the period and in the last years. �erefore,
there was no need to convert land in other countries due to increase in ethanol production
in Brazil. Nevertheless, all ILUC considerations can be considered preliminary and subject
to improvements since the topic has been developing fast recently.
5. Conclusions and recommendations
�is work was an e�ort to analyze land use changes due to sugarcane expansion in Brazil,
contributing to the global debate about social and especially environmental bene�ts of
ethanol. A careful look of the distribution of sugarcane shows that the crop is located and is
expanding in regions that are devoted to agricultural production since a long time. Projections
indicated that sugarcane expansion will continue to take place on these areas. �is means
that there is no sugarcane expansion in the agricultural frontier, which is the place where
agricultural production has been converting natural landscapes. �us, results are indicating
that sugarcane is not directly pressing natural vegetation in any region in Brazil.
�e use of di�erent methods gives consistency to the analysis, since each one has its
weakness and strengths. Remote sensing images can be considered the most reliable source
of information, however they focused only in areas where sugarcane expansion took place,
neglecting dynamics of other crops and pasture land. Secondary data from IBGE cover
all signi�cant productive land uses, nevertheless the data is subject to accuracy problems,
especially those relating to areas dedicated to pasture. Case studies through environmental
licensing reports can o�er profound analysis to understand the dynamics of the mill,
although they are limited in scope of coverage. �e land use model projects future trends
of land substitution among crops, based on past trends, but it relies on many economic
assumptions.
Both remote sensing and secondary data analysis have generated similar results regarding
direct land use changes promoted by sugarcane expansion. Although results are di�erent
in terms of crops and pasture land displacement, they both corroborate that sugarcane
expansion has taken place with no direct e�ect on natural vegetation land. Furthermore,
pasture is increasing its participation on the area displaced by sugarcane, and this pattern
is expected to continue or even become more relevant in the future.
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