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CHAPTER 3. MEDIGAP 149<br />

Table 3.9: Policy Counterfactuals for Subsidies <strong>and</strong> Taxes of Medigap Premiums<br />

Tax Delta Medigap<br />

Tax revenue<br />

Medicare costs Budgetary effect<br />

% of premiums ppt $/beneficiary % $/beneficiary % $/beneficiary %<br />

-40.0% 19.0% -310 -5.6% 532 9.6% 843 15.2%<br />

-20.0% 9.5% -128 -2.3% 266 4.8% 394 7.1%<br />

20.0% -9.5% 74 1.3% -266 -4.8% -341 -6.2%<br />

40.0% -19.0% 95 1.7% -532 -9.6% -627 -11.4%<br />

60.0% -28.5% 62 1.1% -798 -14.4% -860 -15.6%<br />

76.0% -35.8% 0 0.0% -1,003 -18.1% -1,003 -18.1%<br />

Notes: Counterfactuals based on premium elasticity <strong>and</strong> Medigap estimates with full set of controls from Tables 6 <strong>and</strong> 7. Basel<strong>in</strong>e Medigap market<br />

share is 35.8 percent <strong>and</strong> premiums average $1,443. Medicare costs effect caculated assum<strong>in</strong>g Medicare pays for 80 percent of care on the marg<strong>in</strong>.<br />

Percent of costs calculated us<strong>in</strong>g Medicare costs of $5,528 on average for Medigap enrollees.

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