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CHAPTER 4. YEAR-END SPENDING 169 It is reasonable to think that information systems used to monitor terrorist activi- ties, administer Social Security payments, and coordinate the health care of military veterans could have welfare impacts that far exceed their dollar costs. Finally, it should be noted that while we are duly cautious about external validly, the widespread nature of I.T. investment across all types of organizations, including private sector ones, makes a study of I.T. purchases more broadly relevant than would be certain other categories of spending where the federal government may be the only purchaser. Not only do non-federal organizations buy similar products under similar budget structures, but they often purchase these products from the same firms that sell to U.S. federal agencies. These firms know the end-of-year budgeting game, and if they play it at the U.S. federal level, there may be reason to believe that they operate similarly elsewhere. 11 4.4.2 Data and Summary Statistics The I.T. Dashboard displays information on major, ongoing projects made by 27 of the largest agencies of the federal government. The information is gleaned from the Exhibit 53 and Exhibit 300 forms that agencies are required to submit to the Office of Management and Budget and is constantly updated on the Dashboard website, allowing users to view and conduct simple analysis of the data. The data we use was downloaded in March, 2010 at which time there were 761 projects being tracked. For the analysis, we drop the 73 observations that are missing the quality mea- sures, date of award, or cost variables. We also drop two enormous projects because their size would cause them to dominate all of the weighted regression results and because they are too high-profile to be indicative of normal budgeting practices. 12 This leaves us with a baseline sample of 686 projects and $130 billion in planned total spending. 11 See ? for a discussion of the incentives facing government contractors. 12 These projects are a $45.5 billion project at the Department of Defense and a $19.5 billion project at the Department of Homeland Security; the next largest project is $3.9 billion and the average of the remaining observations is $219 million. Because the dropped observations have above average overall ratings and are not from the last week of the year, omitting the observations works against us finding the effect predicted my our model.
CHAPTER 4. YEAR-END SPENDING 170 Table 4.4 shows the year of origination of these projects and the agencies at which they occurred. Almost two-thirds of these projects (64.6 percent) and half of the spending (50.3 percent) originated in 2005 or later, although there are some ongoing projects that originated more than 20 years ago. 13 The projects are distributed fairly broadly across agencies. Although the Department of Defense, Department of Transportation, and Department of Veteran’s Affairs have higher levels of spending, the vast majority of the agencies have at least 10 projects (21 of 27) and at least $1 billion in aggregate spending (20 of 27). The main performance measure tracked on the I.T. dashboard is the overall rating for the project. The canonical approach to tracking acquisitions is to measure cost, schedule, and performance. The overall rating therefore combines three subindexes. The cost rating subindex is based on the absolute percent deviation between the planned and actual cost of the project. Projects that are on average within 5 percent of the scheduled cost receive a score of 10, projects that are within 5 percent to 10 percent on average receive a score of 9, and so on down to zero. Because the symmetric treatment of under and over-cost projects is somewhat unnatural, in our analysis we also construct an alternative index, “cost overrun” which gives under-cost projects the highest scores and over-cost projects the lowest. In this index, projects that are at least 45 percent under-cost receive a score of 10, projects that are 35 percent to 45 percent under-cost receive a score of 9, and so on. The schedule rating subindex is based on the average tardiness of the project across milestones. Projects that are no more than 30 days overdue on average receive a score of 10, projects that are no more than 90 days overdue on average receive a score of 5, and projects that are more than 90 days overdue on average receive a score of 0. The third subindex is a subjective CIO evaluation score, designed to incorporate an assessment of contract performance. The rating is intended to reflect the CIO’s “assessment of the risk of the investment’s ability to accomplish its goals,” with the CIO instructed to “consult appropriate stakeholders in making their evaluation, 13 We address sample selection issues in the sensitivity section below.
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ESSAYS IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND INDUST
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I certify that I have read this dis
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insurance choice. Among other thing
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Acknowledgements I am deeply thankf
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Contents Preface iv Acknowledgement
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2.5.3 The Value of Plan Choice ....
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List of Tables 1.1 Asset Exemption
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Payments CHAPTER 1. BANKRUPTCY 42 $
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ln(seizable sssets) CHAPTER 1. BANK
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50 60 70 80 90 100 Insurance covera
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Chapter 3 Private Coverage and Publ
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