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CHAPTER 4. YEAR-END SPENDING 179<br />

to accomplish the task specified <strong>in</strong> the contract. Column (4) shows that end-of-year<br />

contracts are less likely to <strong>in</strong>clude these sorts of high risk contract terms possibly<br />

because agencies are attempt<strong>in</strong>g to use up def<strong>in</strong>ed sums of excess funds <strong>and</strong> therefore<br />

limit contracts to the available amounts. The use of T&M/LH contracts <strong>in</strong>creases<br />

by 0.4 percentage po<strong>in</strong>ts, which is substantial compared to a base of 5.5 percent.<br />

Because T&M/LH contracts are <strong>in</strong>frequent, column (6) shows a net decrease <strong>in</strong> the<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ed use of risky cost-reimbursement <strong>and</strong> T&M/LH contract spend<strong>in</strong>g of about<br />

3 percentage po<strong>in</strong>ts on a base of 36 percent.<br />

Overall, the analysis <strong>in</strong> this section does not offer any clear <strong>in</strong>sights <strong>in</strong>to what<br />

might be caus<strong>in</strong>g lower performance among end-of-year contracts. There is no reason<br />

to expect it to be a s<strong>in</strong>gle mechanism. All three mechanisms could be re<strong>in</strong>forc<strong>in</strong>g<br />

each other <strong>in</strong> contribut<strong>in</strong>g to the phenomenon.<br />

4.5 Do Rollover Provisions Raise Spend<strong>in</strong>g Qual-<br />

ity?<br />

The third prediction of the model is that allow<strong>in</strong>g for the rollover of unused fund<strong>in</strong>g<br />

unambiguously improves quality, both overall <strong>and</strong> at year’s end. Intuitively, organi-<br />

zations are less likely to engage <strong>in</strong> wasteful year-end spend<strong>in</strong>g when the fund<strong>in</strong>g could<br />

be used for higher value projects <strong>in</strong> the next budget period.<br />

As we noted <strong>in</strong> the <strong>in</strong>troduction, s<strong>in</strong>ce 1992 the Department of Justice (DOJ)<br />

has had special authority to roll over unused funds to pay for future I.T. needs. In<br />

this section of the paper, we exam<strong>in</strong>e whether the quality of DOJ’s end-of-year I.T.<br />

spend<strong>in</strong>g is higher than that of federal agencies who lack rollover authority.<br />

4.5.1 The DOJ’s Rollover Authority<br />

The DOJ authority provides that “unobligated balances of appropriations available<br />

to the Department of Justice dur<strong>in</strong>g such fiscal year may be transferred <strong>in</strong>to the<br />

capital account of the Work<strong>in</strong>g Capital Fund to be available for the department-wide<br />

acquisition of capital equipment, development <strong>and</strong> implementation of law enforcement

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