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CHAPTER 4. YEAR-END SPENDING 184<br />

20 25 30 35<br />

Last quarter spend<strong>in</strong>g (percent)<br />

Non-defense<br />

2005<br />

2001<br />

2007<br />

2004<br />

Figure 4.2: Year-End Spend<strong>in</strong>g by Appropriations Date<br />

2003<br />

2006<br />

2008<br />

2002<br />

2000<br />

2000<br />

2005<br />

2008<br />

2001<br />

2006<br />

2002<br />

2004<br />

2007<br />

2003<br />

2009<br />

Defense<br />

-10 0 10 20 30<br />

Weeks late<br />

2009<br />

Non-defense slope = .193 (.094)<br />

Defense slope = .180 (.053)<br />

Pooled slope = .183 (.044)<br />

(a) Last Quarter Spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

6 8 10 12 14 16<br />

Last week spend<strong>in</strong>g (percent)<br />

Non-defense slope = .112 (.146)<br />

Defense slope = .081 (.045)<br />

Pooled slope = .089 (.047)<br />

2005<br />

2007<br />

Defense<br />

2004<br />

2006<br />

2008<br />

2005<br />

10 15 20<br />

Last month spend<strong>in</strong>g (percent)<br />

2008<br />

2006<br />

2001<br />

2005<br />

Non-defense<br />

2006<br />

2003<br />

2007<br />

2004<br />

2008<br />

2002<br />

2008<br />

2000<br />

20052001<br />

2006<br />

2000<br />

2002<br />

2004<br />

2003<br />

2007<br />

2009<br />

Defense<br />

-10 0 10 20 30<br />

Weeks late<br />

2004<br />

2007<br />

2009<br />

Non-defense slope = .130 (.078)<br />

Defense slope = .089 (.030)<br />

Pooled slope = .100 (.029)<br />

(b) Last Month Spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Non-defense<br />

-10 0 10 20 30<br />

Weeks late<br />

(c) Last Week Spend<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Source: Federal Procurement Data System, accessed October, 2010 via<br />

www.usaspend<strong>in</strong>g.gov <strong>and</strong> Library of Congress.<br />

Note: Vertical axes show the percent of annual spend<strong>in</strong>g occur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the last quarter,<br />

month, <strong>and</strong> week of the fiscal year. Horizontal axes shows the passage dates for the<br />

non-defense <strong>and</strong> defense appropriation bills, relative to the first day of the fiscal year <strong>in</strong><br />

weeks. For defense spend<strong>in</strong>g, weeks late measures the date that the defense appropriations<br />

bill was enacted. For non-defense spend<strong>in</strong>g the date is assigned from the date of the<br />

consolidated appropriations act, or, <strong>in</strong> the case of the two years <strong>in</strong> which there was not a<br />

consolidated act, a date that is the midpo<strong>in</strong>t of the <strong>in</strong>dividual non-defense appropriations<br />

acts. Plots show fitted l<strong>in</strong>es <strong>and</strong> slope coefficients from bivariate regressions on defense<br />

<strong>and</strong> non-defense spend<strong>in</strong>g. Pooled coefficients from a regression where defense <strong>and</strong><br />

non-defense spend<strong>in</strong>g have different <strong>in</strong>tercepts but are constra<strong>in</strong>ed to have the same slope.<br />

Robust st<strong>and</strong>ard errors <strong>in</strong> parentheses.<br />

2009<br />

2009

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