Pierre River Mine Project

AIR ERCB SIRS 40 – 45
Local Study Area (LSA)
Table ERCB 42-1: Regional 1-Hour Benzene Predictions
Section 6.1
Parameter Base Case Application Case
peak benzene (1) (µg/m³) 69.9 104.8
maximum benzene (2) (µg/m³) 59.8 89.6
maximum benzene (excluding developed areas) (2)(3) (µg/m³) 24.8 37.0
distance to maximum concentration (4)(5) (km) 7.2 7.2
direction to maximum concentration (4)(5) ESE ESE
occurrences above AAAQO (5)(6) 0 13
areal extent above AAAQO (5)(6) (excluding developed areas) (ha) 0 261
Regional Study Area (RSA)
peak benzene (1) (µg/m³) 1,196.9 1,196.9
maximum benzene (2) (µg/m³) 1,038.4 1,038.4
maximum benzene (excluding developed areas) (2)(3) (µg/m³) 211.4 211.5
distance to maximum concentration (4)(5) (km) 29.6 29.6
direction to maximum concentration (4)(5) SSW SSW
occurrences above AAAQO (5)(6) 169 169
areal extent above AAAQO (5)(6) (excluding developed areas) (ha) 16,324 16,602
Note:
1. The peak concentrations represent the highest 1-hour predictions from the CALPUFF model. However, the
eight highest 1-hour predictions should be excluded (AENV 2003) when determining compliance with the
AAAQOs.
2. Maximum 1-hour predictions exclude the eight highest 1-hour concentrations, as per the Alberta model
guidelines (AENV 2003). The eight highest 1-hour benzene predictions were not excluded from the
maximum 24-hour values.
3. Developed areas include the Project Development Area and existing and approved open pit mines and
upgrading complexes within the RSA and LSA.
4. Locations are relative to the Jackpine Mine Expansion plant site.
5. Locations, number of occurrences and areas are based on the maximum predictions outside developed
areas.
6. The 1-hour Ambient Air Quality Objective for benzene is 30 µg/m³ (AENV 2009).
Figures ERCB 42-1, ERCB 42-2, ERCB 42-3 and ERCB 42-4 present the ground
level 1-hour benzene concentration predictions for Base and Application cases
and the likelihood of occurrence of predicted concentrations above the AAAQO,
respectively. The concentration and likelihood of exceedance isopleths are
centred on the primary benzene emission sources (i.e., tailings ponds, mine
areas). In the LSA, the Application Case 1-hour benzene concentrations are
focused on the Jackpine Mine Expansion tailings pond, with the highest predicted
concentrations occurring over the surface of the ponds. The exceedances outside
the developed areas in the LSA are because of the combined effect of the
increased emissions from the Jackpine Mine Expansion tailings pond and tailings
pond emissions from neighbouring projects (i.e., Syncrude Aurora South).
The majority of the exceedances occur in areas where the public is not expected
to spend extended periods of time due to restricted access. The air quality
assessment and health risk assessment focused on locations where members of
the public are expected to be, such as communities or cabins (see EIA, Volume 3,
Section 3.4).
April 2010 Shell Canada Limited 6-15
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