Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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- 88 - A 10 Years Simulations of the Baltic Sea Hydrography With Special Attention to the Sea Level Fluctuations Kai Myrberg 1 , Oleg Andrejev 1 and Björn Sjöberg 2 1 Finnish Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 33, 00931 Helsinki, Finland. myrberg@fimr.fi 2 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Nya Varvet 31, 426 71, Västra Frölunda, Sweden. 1. Introduction Many modeling studies have been devoted during the last years to study long-term energy and water balance of the Baltic with various aspects under the BALTEXprogramme and also in different other projects (see. e.g. Lehmann and Hinrichnsen, 2000, Meier, 2002, Omstedt and Axell, 2003). In this study a three-dimensional baroclinic prognostic model of the Baltic Sea (Andrejev and Sokolov, 1989, Myrberg and Andrejev 2003, Andrejev et al. 2004a, Andrejev et al. 2004b) is applied to study the sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea. The model results are compared with observed sea-levels at numerous stations. The model results for salinity and temperature are also compared with the observations of a few Baltic monitoring stations. Also the results of salinity and sea-level simulations during major inflow in 1993 are shortly discussed. 2. The model simulations A baroclinic prognostic model of the Baltic Sea (Andrejev and Sokolov, 1989, Myrberg and Andrejev 2003, Andrejev et al. 2004a, Andrejev et al. 2004b) with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles and 40 vertical levels was used to simulate the hydrography of the Baltic for a 10-years period (1991-2000). The open boundary of the model is placed across the northern Kattegat where sea-levels observed in Göteborg and Fredrikshamn are given at 3h hour intervals. The model is forced by the SMHI meteorological data with a spatial resolution of 1*1 degree. The monthly mean values of river discharges for 1970-1990 (Bergström and Carlsson, 1994) were used. The initial temperature and salinity fields were assembled using a data assimilation system due to Sokolov et al. (1997) which in turn is coupled to a Baltic environment database (Wulff and Rahm, 1991). The spinup period of the model was from 1 June 1990 to December 31, 1990. 3. Main results At first the results of the simulations were compared with the observations of a few Baltic monitoring stations (BY- 5, BY-15, BY-31 and NB1). The comparisons showed that the model can well reproduce the long-term main changes of temperature and salinity but some problems are found which might be coupled with inaccuracies in the meteorological forcing, parameterization of the vertical turbulence etc. Special attention is given to the comparison of calculated and observed sea-levels (see Fig.1). Observations from many stations along the Baltic coast were chosen for this purpose. The model reproduced the sea-level fluctuation with relatively good accuracy. Nevertheless periods of disagreement between the calculated and observed sea level occur sometimes. Such factors as the parameterization of the water exchange between the Baltic and the North seas (including that the resolution of the model 2 nm is most probably not high enough) and the accuracy of the meteorological forcing play an important role in the accuracy of the results. A statistical analysis is shown to explain the discrepancies between the observations and the model results in detail. A special simulation was carried out to study the Baltic major inflow in 1993. In the presentation it will be shown (see also Fig.2.) that the model reproduce well the inflow event and related changes in sea-levels and salinity as well as the penetration of the saline water into the Baltic Sea. A total volume of about 295-340 km 3 of inflowing water could be estimated by the model being close to the observed values. Figure 1. Time-evolution (days) of the sea-level at Helsinki station during January 1- April, 30 1992. The observations are marked with a blue line whereas the model results are marked with a red line. Figure 2. The sea-level in Landsort for the period December 1, 1992 to January 31, 1993.
References Andrejev, O, Sokolov, A.1989. Numerical modelling of the water dynamics and passive pollutant transport in the Neva inlet. Meteorologia i Hydrologia 12, 75-85 (in Russian). Andrejev, O., Myrberg, K., Alenius, P. and Lundberg, P. 2004a. Mean circulation and water exchange in the Gulf of Finland – a study based on three-dimensional modeling. Bor. Env. Res. 9, 1-16. Andrejev, O., Myrberg, K. and Lundberg, P. 2004b. Age and renewal time of water masses in a semi-enclosed basin - Application to the Gulf of Finland. Tellus (in press). Bergström, S. and Carlsson, B. 1994. River runoff to the Baltic Sea: 1950-1970. Ambio 23, 280-287. Lehmann A. and Hinrichsen, H-H. 2000. On the thermohaline variability of the Baltic Sea. J. of Mar. Syst. 25, 333-357. Matthäus, W. 1993. Major inflows of highly saline waters in the Baltic -a review. ICES.C.M: 1993/C51, 16 pp. - 89 - Meier, H.E.M. 2002. Regional ocean climate simulations, with a 3D-ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea. Part 1: model experiments and results for temperature and salinity. Clim. Dyn., 19, 237-253. Myrberg, K. and Andrejev, O. 2003. Main upwelling regions in the Baltic Sea – statistical analysis based on three-dimensional modeling. Bor. Env. Res. 8, 97-112. Omstedt, A. and Axell, L. 2003. Modeling the variations of salinity and temperature in the large Gulfs of the Baltic Sea. Cont. Shelf. Res., 23, 265-294. Sokolov, A., Andrejev, O., Wulff, F. and Rodriguez Medina, M.1997. The data assimilation system for data analysis in the Baltic Sea. System Ecology contributions, No.3, Stockholm University, Sweden, 66 pp. Wulff, F. and Rahm, L. 1991. A database and its tools. In: Wulff, F. (Ed.), Chapter 13: Large-scale environmental effects and ecological processes in the Baltic Sea. Research programme for the period 1990- 95 and background documents. SNV Report 3856, 217-225.
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Fourth Stu
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Preface The 4 th Study</str
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- I - Table of Abstracts Title Auth
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- III - Sensitivity in Calculation
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- V - Parameter Estimation of the S
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- VII - The Realism of the ECHAM5.2
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Adam, W. K. .......................
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- 1 - Activities of the GEWEX Hydro
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eference site archive (Cabauw, Neth
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- 5 - Remote Sensing of Atmospheric
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minute averages around the satellit
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- 9 - Precipitation Type Statistics
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- 11 - Assimilation of New Land Sur
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Multichannel Microwave Radiometer f
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output has been processed in an equ
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height dependence of the Z-R-relati
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- 19 - CERES and Surface Radiation
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- 21 - Coastal Wind Mapping from Sa
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- 23 - Clouds and Water Vapor over
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- 25 - Broadband Cloud Albedo from
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- 27 - Observation of Clouds and Wa
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shows a ground-track of the vessel
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- 31 - Determination and Comparison
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- 33 - Spatial Variability of Snow
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- 35 - EVA-GRIPS: Regional Evaporat
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Page 55 and 56: -39- Calibrated Surface Temperature
Page 57 and 58: - 41 - The Marine Boundary Layer -
Page 59 and 60: - 43 - Characteristics of the Atmos
Page 61 and 62: Figure 2. Surface stress from two d
Page 63 and 64: During the experiment the water was
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Page 71 and 72: - 55 - Analysis of the Role of Atmo
Page 73 and 74: - 57 - Meteorological Peculiarities
Page 75 and 76: Baltic Sea Inflow Events Jan Piechu
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Page 83 and 84: -67- Improved Method for the Determ
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Page 87 and 88: - 71 - CEOP Reference Site Data fro
Page 89 and 90: - 73 - The BALTEX Hydrological Data
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Page 93 and 94: -77- Sea-level Monitoring at MARNET
Page 95 and 96: 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 GO(CLD-M) ERA40 S
Page 97 and 98: Figure 2. Monhly mean values of lat
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Page 109 and 110: Cyberska 1989, Cyberska and Krzymin
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Page 115 and 116: The subsurface flow calculation is
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Page 123 and 124: - 107 - Validation of Boundary Laye
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Page 127 and 128: spreads along isobaths (fig.2). As
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Page 131 and 132: Figure 2. Long-term variability in
Page 133 and 134: obvious from temperature charts. Ho
Page 135 and 136: shortening of the winter seasons by
Page 137 and 138: Maximum 5 day precipitation (mm) Nu
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Figure 2. Time series of Mean Sea L
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- 141 - Calculation and Forecast of
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- 143 - An Overview of Long-Term Ti
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- 145 - Baltic Sea Saltwater Inflow
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- 147 - Significance of Feedback in
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Lindström, G., Johansson, B., Pers
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- 151 - Air-Sea Fluxes Including Mo
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- 153 - The Realism of the ECHAM5.2
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- 155 - Figure 3. Accumulated total
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Figure 2. Example for Fourier decom
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Figure1. Modeled percent volume cha
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conditions even more challenging th
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surface heat fluxes close to zero.
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- 165 - Figure 1. Modeled seasonal
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- 167 - Present-Day and Future Prec
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- 169 - Extreme Precipitation on a
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at the stations Pärnu (Estonia) an
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6. Results There are many possible
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and vegetation, and to derive the h
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The structure of water bodies cadas
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Figure 1. The area of Gdańsk subje
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- 181 - Climate and Water Resources
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- 183 - Generating Synthetic Daily
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The evapotranspiration is affected
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Model parameters and coefficients:
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3. Hydrodynamic model of nutrient l
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No. 15: Minutes of 8 th Meeting of
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Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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