Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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- 166 - Predicted Changes of Discharge into the Baltic Sea Under Climate Change Conditions Simulated by a Multi-Model Ensemble Stefan Hagemann and Daniela Jacob Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr.55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany, hagemann@dkrz.de, jacob@dkrz.de 1. Abstract Several regional climate models (RCMs) participate in the European project PRUDENCE, which aims to predict uncertainties in RCM simulations over Europe. The RCMs comprise the ARPEGE model (Déqué et al. 1998) of Météo- France, a modified version of the German Weather Service‘s forecast Europa model (CHRM; Lüthi et al. 1996) used by the Institute for Climate Research of the ETH Zurich, the climate version of the Lokal-Modell (Doms et al. 2002) used by the GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht, the HadRM3H model (Jones et al. 1995) of the Hadley Centre, the HIRHAM4 model of the Danish Meteorological Institute, the PROMES model (Gaertner et al. 2001) of the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, the RACMO model (Lenderink et al. 2003) of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the RCAO model (Räisänen et al. 2002) of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, the REMO model (Jacob 2001) of the Max-Planck- Institute for Meteorology (MPI) and the RegCM model (Giorgi et al. 1993a; Giorgi et al. 1993b) used by the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics. Within PRUDENCE two RCM simulations were performed by each participating RCM. A control simulation representing current climate conditions for the period 1961-1990, and a scenario simulation representing climate change conditions according to the IPCC scenario A2 for the period 2071- 2100. One of the tasks of MPI is to perform hydrological studies that include both their own RCM simulations and those from other RCMs. A special focus is put on the discharge from large European rivers. The discharge will be simulated with the Hydrological Discharge (HD) Model (Hagemann and Dümenil Gates 2001). The HD model uses daily fields of surface runoff and drainage from the soil as input to represent fast and slow runoff responses. Practically, only total runoff has been delivered to the PRUDENCE database located at DMI. Thus, it is necessary to perform additional analyses to partition total runoff into components that represent fast and slow responses. This is done with a simplified land surface (SL) scheme (Hagemann and Dümenil Gates 2003) which uses daily fields of precipitation and 2m temperature to simulate the hydrological processes on the land surface. In order to be more consistent with the hydrological cycle of the different RCMs, a special version of the SL scheme is used which additionally uses RCM evapotranspiration as input. The simulated discharge into the Baltic Sea from the control simulations will be validated and the discharge changes under climate change conditions will be evaluated. References Christensen JH, Christensen OB, Lopez P, van Meijgaard E, Botzet M, The HIRHAM 4 regional atmospheric climate model. Danish Meteorological Institute, Scientific Report, 96-4, 1996 Déqué M, Marquet P, Jones RG, Simulation of climate change over Europe using a global variable resolution general climate model. Clim Dyn, 14,:pp. 173-189, 1998 Doms G, Steppeler J, Adrian G, Das Lokal-Modell LM. Promet, 27, No. 3/4, pp. 123-129, 2002 Gaertner, MA, Christensen OB, Prego JA, Polcher J, Gallardo C, Castro M, The impact of deforestation on the hydrologic cycle in the western Mediterranean: An ensemble study with two regional models. Clim Dyn., 17, pp. 857 873, 2001 Giorgi, F, Mearns LO, Marinucci MR, Bates GT, Development of a second-generation regional climate model (Regcm2). Part I: Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, pp. 2794 2813, 1993a Giorgi, F, Mearns LO, DeCanio G, Bates GT, Development of a second-generation regional climate model (Regcm2). Part II: Convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, pp. 2814 2832, 1993b Hagemann S, Dümenil Gates L, Validation of the hydrological cycle of ECMWF and NCEP reanalyses using the MPI hydrological discharge model. J Geophys Res 106: pp. 1503-1510, 2001 Hagemann S, Dümenil Gates L, Improving a subgrid runoff parameterization scheme for climate models by the use of high resolution data derived from satellite observations, Clim. Dyn. 21, pp. 349-359, 2003 Jacob D, A note to the simulation of the annual and interannual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77: pp. 61- 73, 2001 Jones RG, Murphy JM, Noguer M, Simulation of climate change over Europe using a nested regional climate model. I: Assessment of control climate, including sensitivity to location of lateral boundaries. QJR Meteorol Soc 121, pp. 1413-1449, 1995 Lenderink G, van den Hurk BJJM, van Meijgaard E, van Ulden AP, Cuijpers H, Simulation of present-day climate in RACMO2: First results and model developments. KNMI Technical Report 252, 24 pp., 2003: Lüthi D, Cress A, Davies HC, Frei C, Schär C, Interannual variability and regional climate simulations. Theor Appl Climatol 53, pp. 185-209, 1996 Räisänen J, Hansson U, Ullerstig A, First GCM-driven RCAO runs of recent and future climate. In SWECLIM Newsletter No. 12, pp. 16-21, 2002
- 167 - Present-Day and Future Precipitation in the Baltic Region as Simulated in Regional Climate Models Erik Kjellström Rossby Centre, SMHI, SE 60176 Norrköping, Sweden Erik.Kjellstrom@smhi.se 1. Introduction Regional climate model (RCM) experiments for the European region are studied focusing on future greenhouse gas-induced changes in precipitation over the Baltic Sea. Uncertainties in the results due to model formulation, emission scenario, and choice of global model for the lateral boundary conditions are illustrated. 2. Models and data Results from the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model System (RCAO) are used in this work. The model consists of an atmospheric part (RCA) coupled to an oceanic model for the Baltic Sea including Kattegat (RCO). The RCAO and the simulations used in this study are described in more detail in Räisänen et al., (2003, 2004). The RCAO results are compared to results from other European centers running RCMs with different configurations. The results are presently being used in the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects) project, see Christensen, et al. (2002). The RCMs have been run for the future time period 2071-2100 using SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2 (Nakićenović et al., 2000) and for a control time period (1961-1990). All models have been run with forcing boundaries from the Hadley Centre AGCM HadAM3H (Gordon et al., 2000). In addition RCAO and the model from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) have been run with forcing boundaries from ECHAM4/OPYC3 from the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (Roeckner et al., 1999). Apart from the lateral boundaries also sea surface temperatures are provided from the driving GCMs. In RCAO, Baltic Sea SSTs are calculated by the ocean model component. The SSTs from the RCO has been used in two of the other PRUDENCE simulations, at DMI and KNMI. An additional simulation with RCA was also performed in which the SSTs were taken directly from the HadAM3H. The horizontal resolution of the RCMs has been in the order of 50 km for most of the models. In addition two experiments have been run at 20-25km. All the data presented here have been interpolated to a regular latitudelongitude grid with a resolution of 0.5 O . 3. Results The annual mean calculated future precipitation increase over the Baltic Sea ranges between 5 and 50% in an area mean sense, depending on which RCM, which lateral boundary conditions and which emission scenario is used. In general, most of the experiments give increased precipitation in the Baltic Sea region except for the summer when the precipitation is expected to decrease in large parts of the surrounding land areas. In summer the changes in precipitation differ dramatically between the different models (Figure 1). While many of the RCMs simulate large increases in precipitation over the Baltic Sea others simulate only small changes or even decreased precipitation. In an area mean sense the changes over the Baltic Sea range between a reduction of almost 20% up to more than a doubling of the amount of precipitation (Figure 2). In general, the models simulate larger changes in the high (A2) emission scenarios than in the low (B2) emission scenarios. SMHI(RCO) SMHI MF HC MPI 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 KNMI(RCO) DMI(RCO) DMI ETH GKSS Figure 1. Change in summertime (JJA) precipitation over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas. Shown are simulated future conditions in SRES emission scenario A2 minus control run conditions. All RCMs at the different centers in the plot have been run with the same lateral boundary conditions (HadAM3H). SSTs are taken directly from the GCM unless noted (RCO). Precipitation (%) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 −20 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Temperature ( o C) Figure 2. Change in summertime (JJA) precipitation and 2m-temperature over the Baltic Sea. Shown are simulated future conditions in scenarios B2 (left) and A2 (to the right of the dashed line) minus control run conditions. Each RCM is given different symbols. Red (blue) indicates RCMs run with HadAM3H (ECHAM4/OPYC3) boundary data. Green denotes models using HadAM3H boundaries and Baltic Sea SSTs from the RCAO. 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2 2 0 −2
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Fourth Stu
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Preface The 4 th Study</str
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- I - Table of Abstracts Title Auth
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- III - Sensitivity in Calculation
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- V - Parameter Estimation of the S
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- VII - The Realism of the ECHAM5.2
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Adam, W. K. .......................
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- 1 - Activities of the GEWEX Hydro
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eference site archive (Cabauw, Neth
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- 5 - Remote Sensing of Atmospheric
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minute averages around the satellit
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- 9 - Precipitation Type Statistics
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- 11 - Assimilation of New Land Sur
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Multichannel Microwave Radiometer f
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output has been processed in an equ
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height dependence of the Z-R-relati
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- 19 - CERES and Surface Radiation
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- 21 - Coastal Wind Mapping from Sa
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- 23 - Clouds and Water Vapor over
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- 25 - Broadband Cloud Albedo from
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- 27 - Observation of Clouds and Wa
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shows a ground-track of the vessel
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- 31 - Determination and Comparison
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- 33 - Spatial Variability of Snow
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- 35 - EVA-GRIPS: Regional Evaporat
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- 37 - LITFASS-2003 - A Land Surfac
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-39- Calibrated Surface Temperature
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- 41 - The Marine Boundary Layer -
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- 43 - Characteristics of the Atmos
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Figure 2. Surface stress from two d
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During the experiment the water was
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While the number of smallest drops
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SCANDIA will not be supported any l
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- 53 - Relationships Between Precip
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- 55 - Analysis of the Role of Atmo
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- 57 - Meteorological Peculiarities
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Baltic Sea Inflow Events Jan Piechu
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- 61 - The Different Baltic Inflows
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- 63 - Observations of Turbulent Ki
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- 65 - The Influence of Synoptic Si
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-67- Improved Method for the Determ
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-69- The Helicopter-Borne Turbulenc
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- 71 - CEOP Reference Site Data fro
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- 73 - The BALTEX Hydrological Data
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- 75 - Hydrological and Hydrochemic
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-77- Sea-level Monitoring at MARNET
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1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 GO(CLD-M) ERA40 S
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Figure 2. Monhly mean values of lat
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In the case of an ideal fit, the co
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- 85 - Influence of Atmospheric For
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The largest inter-annual variabilit
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References Andrejev, O, Sokolov, A.
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On the other hand, if the stratific
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Cyberska 1989, Cyberska and Krzymin
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- 95 - Continental-Scale Water-Bala
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- 97 - ICTS (Inter-CSE Transferabil
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The subsurface flow calculation is
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functions only data with higher qua
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- 103 - Modelling the Impact of Ine
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- 105 - Objective Calibration of th
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- 107 - Validation of Boundary Laye
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- 109 - Simulated Dynamical Process
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spreads along isobaths (fig.2). As
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than the precipitation pattern of J
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Page 165 and 166: Lindström, G., Johansson, B., Pers
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Page 187 and 188: at the stations Pärnu (Estonia) an
Page 189 and 190: 6. Results There are many possible
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Page 193 and 194: The structure of water bodies cadas
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Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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