Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

The following should be pointed out when dealing with
the climate change effects in more detail.
Forecast of Climate Change Effect on River and Lake
Ecosystems. Increasing “thermal load” on rivers and
water reservoirs may accelerate eutrophication processes.
Shifting in the species composition (groups) of
phytoplankton toward species (groups) with higher
temperature optimum (for example Cyanobacteria) poses
a substantial risk for drinking water quality.
Warming would affect fish resources. Uniform increase
in water temperature in shallow water reservoirs would
lead to weight loss of fish inhabiting cold water and cause
plague of multiple bions.
A disruption of the fish biocycle, peter-out of stenobiont
fish from the fish fauna, change in species diversity and
fish number and biomass are to be expected.
Experts believe that, at present, systematized
hydrobiological data are not available, therefore it is not
possible, in a statistically credible and significant way, to
record changes in structural parameters of aquatic
organism communities in response to the effect of
specific environmental factors, and to identify in
particular climatic change impact. There is a need to
commence long-term “high-frequency” hydrobiological
parameter observations of most characteristic water
bodies within a framework of research monitoring.
Decreasing water levels in rivers and lakes is likely to
increase 137 Cs and 90 Sr radio nuclide concentrations in
surface water of the Dnieper and Pripyat basins located in
Gomel and Mogilev Oblasts.
The forecast of climate change effect on ground water
level has demonstrated that if the annual temperature
increases in Belarus by about 0.2 °С in the beginning of
the 21 st century, this may result in the ground water level
(GWL) recession of 0.02 m relative to the normal. If the
temperature increases by 1.5 °C by 2025, this would lead
to GWL recession by approximately 0.03-0.04 m relative
to the normal. Spring GWL amplitudes are expected to
decrease to such a low level, as was observed during the
5 years warm period in the late 1980s-early 1990s, or
even lower.
Risk of Inundation of Areas by Floods. The analysis of
data of the flood events in 1845 and 1931 shows that
more catastrophic floods and high water may form in
Belarus in the future. Such a situation is possible with a
higher anthropogenic load on the watershed area leading
to substantial change in conditions of runoff formation in
hydrological terms.
Risk for Hydropower Engineering. All operating HEPP
in the Belarusian power engineering system are
categorized as small-sized units for which firm capacity
is defined by the December runoff of design probability
not lower than 95% in the year with low water. The firm
capacity of Polotsk HEPP being currently designed and
categorized as medium-sized is accepted based on the
condition of 80-85% of the assured water supply.
Control structures of small-sized HEPP comprise small
reservoirs for day storage which are affected by climate
to a great extent. The increase in mean monthly
temperatures of the surface water layer would lead to
additional evaporation and respective power generation
loss. Winter warming, however, as observed in the last
decades, improves the ice conditions on water reservoirs
and rivers.
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Risk for Water Transport. Climate factors may cause
substantial variation in water discharge, both within a
year and interannually. On average, 46 - 62% of the
annual runoff occurs during spring. Approximately an
average of 4-6% of the annual runoff falls within each of
the 9 months of summer, fall and winter.
In the years with low water in summer and winter
months, the local flow may reduce down to 2-3 % of the
annual one, thereby affecting the water level and
operation of the water transport involved in freight and
passenger traffic on the rivers of Pripyat, Dnieper,
Berezina, Sozh and Dnieper-Bug canal.
Adaptation Measures in Water Management. An
increase in frequency and duration of dry spells would
lead to the decline of water levels in rivers, lakes, and
water storage reservoirs and, hence, would deteriorate the
quality of the water. This would necessitate an upgrading
treatment of waste water discharged into these sources
and the relocation of polluters beyond the boundaries of
water protection areas.
Reduced water levels and consumption during the lowwater
period would adversely affect the operation of the
Belarusian inland water transport, HEPP and also
radiation condition of surface water in Gomel and
Mogilev Oblasts of Belarus. Aquatic flora and fauna are
expected to change.
Due to the above, adaptation of the water sector and
aquatic systems should be aimed at mitigating climate
warming-related adverse effects and contribute to
sustainable development of the Republic of Belarus.
Proposals on Most Critical Adaptation Measures.
Major efforts in the water resources sphere are proposed
to be focused on the following adaptation measures:
(i) The Development of flood control actions primarily
for the Polessie region, with specifics of the river runoff
formation in Ukraine being accounted for;
(ii) the development of a reliable hydrometeorological
monitoring, extensive use of the radar and satellite data
for assessing characteristics of the snow cover and
planning water management, agricultural and forest
protection measures;
(iii) scheduled forest reclamation activity in the river
basins as an efficient measure to control erosion water
streams;
(iv) substantiation of efficiency and feasibility of
construction of underground water storage reservoirs in
some regions of the country to regulate the water regime
with the requirements of water users, i.e. to address the
water supply problem, namely, increasing guaranteed
water content of a source.
Summary Requirements. Implementing water supply
actions is time consuming, therefore large water
management facilities need to be planned 25 years in
advance and commissioned 10-15 years ahead of the
water demand.
The long-term planning of the economic activity should
take into account the vulnerability of surface water and
specific limitations of adaptation measures without
reference being made to specific dates on the change
onset. The adaptation of the economic activity should
first of all include water conservation, extensive use of
water-conservation processes, and more extensive use of
agricultural land irrigation.