Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

Figure1. Modeled percent volume change in river
discharge to the Baltic Sea from HBV-Baltic. The upper
plot shows mean annual values summarized for the five
main Baltic Sea drainage basins and the total Baltic Basin
for the four climate change scenarios. The anomaly of
observed river discharge for the period 1991-2002
compared to the period 1961-1990 is also shown.
Runoff (mm yr -1 )
600
500
400
300
200
100
H-B2
E-B2
H-A2
E-A2
H-B2
0 4 Temperature (°C)
8
Figure 2. Estimated temperature and runoff during
1901-2002, and average conditions for 2071-2100
according to four scenario simulations with the HBV
model. Individual years (+, 1991-2002 in bold), 12-year
averages (gray circles), average 1991-2002 (black circle),
and the averages in the scenario simulations for 2071-
2100 (orange and red circles). The lines give average
values for 1961-1990 for northern Sweden (left) and
southern Sweden (right). The four scenarios were based
on the HadAM3H (H) and ECHAM4/OPYC3 (E)
models, and the A2 and B2 scenarios.
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