Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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-148 - Recent Development of a Regional Air/Land Surface/Sea/Ice Coupling Modeling System, “the RCAO Experience” Markku Rummukainen Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden. E-mail: Markku.Rummukainen@smhi.se 1. Regional modeling Regional modeling is a tool in operational forecasting, climate research and environmental studies. There are many important synergies between regional and global modeling, development of theory and observational studies. Likewise, development and application of modeling are interlinked. In the past, much has been learned about the different components of the physical climate system, such as the atmosphere, the land surface, the oceans, and the sea ice. The push to address these as a coupled system is an ongoing challenge and holds much promise as to improving our understanding of the system and to developing better tools to study it. Coupled modeling is the norm in global climate modeling. Important steps towards the same also in regional climate modeling have been taken during the past few years. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean Model, RCAO, has been one of these advances. This presentation takes a look into uses and possibilities of coupled regional modeling, building especially on experiences from RCAO. A near-term outlook is also given and some guidance is suggested for future work. 2. RCAO RCAO (Döscher et al. 2002) builds on the Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere Model, RCA (Rummukainen et al. 2001, Jones et al. 2004), and the 3-dimensional Rossby Centre Regional Ocean Model, RCO (Meier et al. 2003). It also includes a river routing routine based on a large-scale application of the HBV hydrological model from Bergström et al. (1973) and Lindström et al. (1997), and accounts for lakes and lake systems following Ljungemyr et al. (1996) and Omstedt (1999). The coupler software is based on Valcke et al. (2000). sea ice ocean ∆t mod atmosphere rivers land surface ∆t coup OASIS Figure 1. Schematics of the RCAO system, its main components and their coupling. Model development is a long-term activity at the Rossby Centre. Model evaluation and utilization of observational data is an inherent part of this. Process studies, climate change projections and support to environmental, energy and impact research is seen as an important application and a natural follow-up of model development and evaluation efforts. 3. The evaluation of RCAO RCAO has been developed, evaluated and applied for Northern Europe. Its components, especially RCA and HBV, have been applied also on other regions. The latter has improved model evaluation possibilities by widening the range of conditions under which the model is tested, and facilitated benefiting from special observational data sets. It has also been shown, that the coupling exercise can also lead to new insights to and important improvements in model components that have been developed in isolation. Coupling carries additional potential to expose compensating errors and suchlike. Presently, RCAO is being set up for the Arctic region, a process of which is expected to improve the system also when applied in the Baltic Sea region. 4. Outlook and recommendations RCAO, as any other model, is a research and development tool. As such, a model never becomes perfect, or replaces the need to measure and to monitor. However, just as much as measurements can provide us with information that is not attainable by modeling, the latter can go where measurements do not reach. Modeling and measuring/monitoring are in this sense complementary, and should be understood as such. We promote close collaboration between these activities. Among the future development and application of RCAO are studies of the climate of the past (paleoclimate topics and regional reanalyses for the 20 th Century), and climate change projections for the 21 st Century. Another intention is to keep improving the existing model system, but also to increase its complexity along the lines envisioned in global “Earth System Modeling”. Regional modeling has an opportunity to do so with a degree of detail (resolution) expected to become “typical” global modeling during the coming years. Thus, development of regional modeling, today, can contribute to improved global modeling to come. Last but not least, we recognize the usefulness and promise of synergy between operational, environmental and climate modeling, and wish to promote increased links between these, e.g. within the context of BALTEX. References Bergström, S. and Forsman, A. 1973. Development of a conceptual deterministic rainfall-runoff model. Nord. Hydrol., 4, 147-170.
Lindström, G., Johansson, B., Persson, M., Gardelin, M. and Bergström, S. 1997. Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 model. J. Hydr. 201, 272-288. Rummukainen, M., Räisänen, J., Bringfelt, B., Ullerstig, A., Omstedt, A., Willén, U., Hansson, U. and Jones, C. 2001. A regional climate model for northern Europe: model description and results from the downscaling of two GCM control simulations. Clim. Dyn. 17, 339-359. Jones, C., Willén, U., Ullerstig, A. and Hansson, U. 2004. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere Model (RCA). Part I: Model climatology and performance for the present climate over Europe. Ambio, accepted. Döscher, R., Willén, U., Jones, C., Rutgersson, A., Meier, H. E. M., Hansson, U. and Graham, L. P. 2002. The development of the coupled regional ocean-atmosphere model RCAO. Boreal Env. Res. 7, 183-192. Meier, H. E. M., Döscher, R. and Faxén, T. 2003. A multiprocessor coupled ice-ocean model for the Baltic Sea: Application to salt inflow. J. Geophys. Res. 108:C8, 3273, doi:10.1029/2000JC000521. Valcke, S., Terray, L., and Piacentini, A. 2000. Oasis 2.4, Ocean atmosphere sea ice soil: user’s guide. Technical Report TR/CMGC/00/10, CERFACS, Toulouse, France. Ljungemyr, P., Gustafsson, N. and Omstedt, A. 1996. Parameterization of lake thermodynamics in a high resolution weather forecasting model. Tellus 48A, 608- 621. Omstedt, A. 1999. Forecasting ice on lakes, estuaries and shelf seas. In J. S. Wettlaufer, J. G. Dash and N. Untersteiner (eds), Ice Physics in the Natural and Endangered Environment, NATO ASI Vol I 56, Springer- Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, pp. 185-208. -149 -
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Fourth Stu
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Preface The 4 th Study</str
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- I - Table of Abstracts Title Auth
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- III - Sensitivity in Calculation
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- V - Parameter Estimation of the S
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- VII - The Realism of the ECHAM5.2
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Adam, W. K. .......................
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- 1 - Activities of the GEWEX Hydro
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eference site archive (Cabauw, Neth
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- 5 - Remote Sensing of Atmospheric
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minute averages around the satellit
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- 9 - Precipitation Type Statistics
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- 11 - Assimilation of New Land Sur
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Multichannel Microwave Radiometer f
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output has been processed in an equ
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height dependence of the Z-R-relati
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- 19 - CERES and Surface Radiation
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- 21 - Coastal Wind Mapping from Sa
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- 23 - Clouds and Water Vapor over
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- 25 - Broadband Cloud Albedo from
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- 27 - Observation of Clouds and Wa
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shows a ground-track of the vessel
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- 31 - Determination and Comparison
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- 33 - Spatial Variability of Snow
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- 35 - EVA-GRIPS: Regional Evaporat
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- 37 - LITFASS-2003 - A Land Surfac
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-39- Calibrated Surface Temperature
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- 41 - The Marine Boundary Layer -
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- 43 - Characteristics of the Atmos
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Figure 2. Surface stress from two d
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During the experiment the water was
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While the number of smallest drops
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SCANDIA will not be supported any l
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- 53 - Relationships Between Precip
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- 55 - Analysis of the Role of Atmo
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- 57 - Meteorological Peculiarities
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Baltic Sea Inflow Events Jan Piechu
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- 61 - The Different Baltic Inflows
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- 63 - Observations of Turbulent Ki
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- 65 - The Influence of Synoptic Si
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-67- Improved Method for the Determ
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-69- The Helicopter-Borne Turbulenc
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- 71 - CEOP Reference Site Data fro
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- 73 - The BALTEX Hydrological Data
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- 75 - Hydrological and Hydrochemic
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-77- Sea-level Monitoring at MARNET
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1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 GO(CLD-M) ERA40 S
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Figure 2. Monhly mean values of lat
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In the case of an ideal fit, the co
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- 85 - Influence of Atmospheric For
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The largest inter-annual variabilit
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References Andrejev, O, Sokolov, A.
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On the other hand, if the stratific
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Cyberska 1989, Cyberska and Krzymin
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- 95 - Continental-Scale Water-Bala
Page 113 and 114: - 97 - ICTS (Inter-CSE Transferabil
Page 115 and 116: The subsurface flow calculation is
Page 117 and 118: functions only data with higher qua
Page 119 and 120: - 103 - Modelling the Impact of Ine
Page 121 and 122: - 105 - Objective Calibration of th
Page 123 and 124: - 107 - Validation of Boundary Laye
Page 125 and 126: - 109 - Simulated Dynamical Process
Page 127 and 128: spreads along isobaths (fig.2). As
Page 129 and 130: than the precipitation pattern of J
Page 131 and 132: Figure 2. Long-term variability in
Page 133 and 134: obvious from temperature charts. Ho
Page 135 and 136: shortening of the winter seasons by
Page 137 and 138: Maximum 5 day precipitation (mm) Nu
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Page 141 and 142: similar: the locations of main mini
Page 143 and 144: - 127 - Storminess on the Western C
Page 145 and 146: - 129 - Trends in Wind Speed over t
Page 147 and 148: - 131 - Wind Energy Prognoses for t
Page 149 and 150: - 133 - Detection of Climate Change
Page 151 and 152: Figure 3. Cross section of salinity
Page 153 and 154: of 35 m/s up to 3 hours. Data on wi
Page 155 and 156: Figure 2. Time series of Mean Sea L
Page 157 and 158: - 141 - Calculation and Forecast of
Page 159 and 160: - 143 - An Overview of Long-Term Ti
Page 161 and 162: - 145 - Baltic Sea Saltwater Inflow
Page 163: - 147 - Significance of Feedback in
Page 167 and 168: - 151 - Air-Sea Fluxes Including Mo
Page 169 and 170: - 153 - The Realism of the ECHAM5.2
Page 171 and 172: - 155 - Figure 3. Accumulated total
Page 173 and 174: Figure 2. Example for Fourier decom
Page 175 and 176: Figure1. Modeled percent volume cha
Page 177 and 178: conditions even more challenging th
Page 179 and 180: surface heat fluxes close to zero.
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Page 183 and 184: - 167 - Present-Day and Future Prec
Page 185 and 186: - 169 - Extreme Precipitation on a
Page 187 and 188: at the stations Pärnu (Estonia) an
Page 189 and 190: 6. Results There are many possible
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Page 193 and 194: The structure of water bodies cadas
Page 195 and 196: Figure 1. The area of Gdańsk subje
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Page 199 and 200: - 183 - Generating Synthetic Daily
Page 201 and 202: The evapotranspiration is affected
Page 203 and 204: Model parameters and coefficients:
Page 205: 3. Hydrodynamic model of nutrient l
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Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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