Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX Scala Cinema Gudhjem

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Figure 3. Accumulated total calculated and measured runoff for the Baltic Sea
3. First Results and Outlook
The validation is done in two steps. In the first step the
runoff components of the non-integrated model are compared
to measurements by using the meteorological output
from the atmospheric model as input in the hydrological
model LARSIM. The runoff is compared to measurement
for two decades (1980 – 2000).
The results are shown in Figure 3. For a time series from
1980 to 2000 the accumulated measured and calculated total
yearly runoff from land surface to the Baltic Sea can be
seen. There is a little underestimation of the measured total
runoff in contrast to the calculated total runoff until the year
1994. From the year 1995 to the year 2000 there is an overestimation
of the calculated total runoff in contrast to the
total measured runoff. The differences amount to about 10 to
15 percent.
More detailed regional and temporal analysis of the runoff
will be shown at the conference.
In the second step runoff is calculated with the fully integrated
model system and also compared to measurements. It
is expected that the integrated model will lead to a better
understanding of hydrological processes in atmospheric
models and to improved results.
References
Bremicker M. (2000): Das Wasserhaushaltsmodell LAR-
SIM-Modellgrundlagen und Anwendungsbeispiele,
Frei-burger Schriften zur Hydrologie, Band 11, 2000.
Jacob D. (2001): A note to simulation of the Annual and
Interannual Variability of the Water Budget over the
Baltic Sea Drainage Basin. Meteorology and Atmospheric
Physics 77, No 1-4, 61-74, 2001.
Lehmann A. (1995): A three-dimensional baroclinic eddyresolving
model of the Baltic Sea, Tellus 47A: 1013-
1031, 1995.
Richter K.-G., Ludwig K. (2003); Analysis of the Water
Cycle of the Baltic Area under present and future
Conditions, German Climate Research Program (2001
–2006), DEKLIM Status Seminar 2003, Bad Münstereifel,
6-8 Oktober 2003: 205-206.