Bulletin de liaison etd'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro
International Herald Tribune
Monday, February 25, 2002
I
de la Prensa-Basm Ozeti
•
.Any strike
on Iraq by
u.s. maybe
a year away
By Walter Pincus
and Karen DeYoung
1beWll8hlngton l'o8t
WASHINGTON: Despite rhetoric
from the Bush administration indicating
that a military move against
Iraq could be imminent, the military
reality is that it could take a
year before the United States is
ready to launch a coordinated assault
likely to destroy Iraq's potential
for weapons of mass destruction
and replace Saddam Hussein.
According to testimony and interviews
with senior administration
and Pentagon officials, foreign
diplomats and nongovernment
analysts, depleted arms
stocks, demands on ships and aircraft
in the Afghan campaign,
severe strains on active-duty and
reserve forces over the last Cive
months, and the need to obtain regional
basing and command-center
agreements have imposed an
unavoidably lengthy delay.
Pentagon planners say it will
take six months to produce enough
joint direct attack munitions, thl:
precision systems that guided
I,OOO-pound (450-kilogram)
bombs to Taliban and Al Qaeda
targets, to contemplate an attack
on Saddam's Iraq.
Despite its tough verbal offensive,
and remaining divisions between
Pentagon and State Department
leaders, sources said, the
White House believes that complete
success in any campaign
against Iraq is far more crucial
than the need to act quickly.
Beyond the resource demands
of the military, conditions inside
Iraq and the surrounding region
are still far from optimal. And
much of the rest of the wQrld, including
countries whose support
is seen as critical, remains skeptical
or openly hostile to a direct attack.
In recognition of these realities,
the administration has developed a
strategy of short- and long-term
actions designed to ensure that all made things worse.
the elements it sees as necessary Even as they acknowledge the truth
for success eventually will con- of these complaints, U.S. officials are
verge
sometimes exasperated.
. f h ... 1 '1'
Many 0 t e Initia ml Itary "Cheney wants to hear them out, and
steps are well under way, based on tell them what's going on," said a senior
a working assumption that an at- officiaL But such discussions, he said,
tack would begin with a massive "are always a challenge. If we say we
air assault on Iraqi anti-aircraft want to listen to what they think, they
defenses and known weapons accuse us of having no plan. If we give
sites, ideally guided by friendly
forces on the ground. This would
them a plan, they complain
consult them."
we never
be followed by the entry of major Cheney's hosts are likely to point out
units of U.S. troops, equipped to the absence in the administration's planwithstand
chemical or biological ning of any clear idea of what would reweapons
attacks.
"Our objectives in Iraq can only
place the Saddam regime. The White
House has instructed a long-skeptical
be met with forces on the ground," State Department and CIA to ste~ up
said an official inside the Pentagon
with long experience on policy
contacts with leading Iraqi OPPOSition
groups.
and planning issues. "We can't inspect So far, that effort has proceeded on a
chemical weapons facilities from the somewhat less energetic timetable than
air."
In addition to accelerated weapons
other aspects of the strategy.
The expatriate-led Iraqi National
production, planners are immersed in Congress, the Kurds in northern Iraq
assessing manpower and equipment and the Shiite population in the south
and basing needs, factoring in variables are nominally allied under a broad opincluding
the Afghan operation and the.. position umbrella. But Kurdish spokespossibility
that new cnses, at home or men have said in recent weeks that they
ln Rlaces such as the Middle East; the are reluctant to signing on to a U.S.plan
Philippines and Colombia, could divert without absolute assurance of suceess,
attention and resources.
and that no one has yet asked them to.
On the diplomatic front, the adminis- The head of the London office of the Sutration
is workin~ with Russia and other preme Council of the Islamic Revolution
Security Councll members to adjust ln Iraq, the only credible armed group
United Nations sanctions to mute crit- among southern Shiites, said that nothicism
that they are too harmful to the ing had changed in their arms-length re-
Iraqi people. It is also orchestrating in- lationship with the United States.
creased pressure on Saddam to comply Although a long-testy relationship
with a range of UN resolutions, includ- between the Iraqi National Congress
ing allowing UN inspectors to examine and the State Department has improved
suspected chemical, biological and nu- in recent weeks, the administration has
clear weapons sites. continued to reject the group's de-
The assumption is that either Saddam mands for military training and money
will acquiesce, something the adminis- to begin operations inside Iraq. Both
tration views as unlikely, or his contin- U.S. and Iraqi National Congress offiued
refusal will help convince the world cials, however, said that a conference of
that peaceful options have been ex- former Iraqi military officers livi~ in
hausted.
Vice President Dick Cheney's tour of
exile, planned for March in Washlngton,
was a sign of progress.
11countries in the region next month is Meanwhile, the CIA has continued
designed so that he can listen to the its long-term covert operations to unconcerns
of government leaders, assure dermine Saddam and foment a coup
them that no precipitous action will be from inside the military, a plan agency
taken, demonstrate that the United officials say is enhanced by increased
States is putting in place a comprehen- UN pressure combined with the ongosive,
workable plan and ask their advice
and assistance while emphasizing the
ing buildup of U.S. forces in the area.
seriousness of U.S. intent.
Virtually every country in the region
has publicly opposed a U.S. militaryat.
tack on Iraq. Their leaders say privately
they would be happy to wake up one
morning and find Saddam gone. But
many recall that they have been recruited
into past, half-hearted U.s. efforts
that not only left him in place, but
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