Bulletin de liaison etd'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti
UPI Feb. 14,2002
U.S. Asks Muslims' Reaction to Attack on Iraq
WASHINGTON The United States is watching to see how Muslim countries will react if Washington launches a military
offensive to oust Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
Diplomats from Muslim countries told United Press International this week that U.S. officials discussed the possibility
of a military offensive against Iraq with Islamic leaders who came to the U.S. capital.
Leaders from Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have visited Washington recently. Jordan and Turkey were represented
at the highest level, and Saudi Arabia sent several key members of the ruling al Saud family.
"Both Jordan and Turkey have economic interests in Iraq and fear that a military offensive against Saddam can adversely
affect their economies," said one Muslim diplomat. Turkey's Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit also raised the issue
of his country's minority Kurdish community when he visited Washington last month. Turkey fears that strikes
against Iraq could encourage moves toward a separate Kurdish state in northern Iraq, which, in turn, would boost
the separatist aspirations of Turkey's Kurds.
Turkey is the only Muslim member of NATO.
Jordan's King Abdullah was more supportive but sought economic assurances from the United States, the diplomats
said.
Jordan already finds it difficult to fully enforce the ll-year-old U.N. sanctions against Iraq. Many Jordanians have a
deep sympathy for Iraqi civilians who have been hit hard by the sanctions, and businessmen want to maximize their
trade with Iraq. Lacking oil, Jordan relies heavily on trade and foreign aid. It has a rapidly growing population of 5
million, three-quarters of whom are under 30. The recent history of the Middle East has shown the young are most
vulnerable to militant Islamic propaganda.
Saudis Fear Another Failure
The Saudis have different concerns. They fear that a new U.S. military offensive to remove the Iraqi leader mayalso
fail, like the previous attempt by President G.H.W. Bush. Another failed offensive, they fear, may increase Saddam's
popularity among the Arab masses, already perturbed over recent U.S. air strikes in Afghanistan.
Discussing U.S. plans for an offensive against Saddam, the Saudis say that the Americans
are taking major risks.
According to them, the Americans believe that by weakening Saddam, they will enable an Iraqi opposition alliance
to take over Baghdad. The Saudis see flaws in this plan. "To begin with, no such alliance exists so far," said one
Muslim diplomat. "Even if the Americans use their influence to form one, there is no guarantee that it will succeed
in replacing Saddam."
However, after President Bush's Jan. 29 speech, in which he called Iraq, Iran and North Korea part of "an axis of evil,"
most Muslim leaders are convinced the Americans will sooner or later launch a military offensive against Iraq.
'Not if but When
"The question is not 'If the Americans will attack,' but 'when will they attack,'" said another diplomat.
"There is a great deal of nervousness about the likely nature of the campaign and the real resolve of the United States
to see this through," said Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings Institute. "But if the action is quick and successful,
it will be condoned, if not welcomed, by most of the Arab world." Statements emanating from Washington
not only increase this "nervousness" but also create confusion about u.s. intentions.
Though last week Washington was abuzz with rumors of an imminent u.s. attack on Iraq, this week some U.S. officials
said they were also considering options other than a full-fledged military strike. The CIA is working on a plan
for covert action to remove the Iraqi dictator, and it has already been authorized to destabilize the regime, they c ,lid.
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