Bulletin de liaison etd'information - Institut kurde de Paris

Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevo~
Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti
Secretary of State Colin Powell referred to one option on Tuesday when he j9kingly said that "natural causes" could
also make Saddam disappear. Powell said that though Saddam and he were the same age, the Iraqi did not enjoy
good health.OHanlon, however, believes that "there are Inore than 50-50 chances that the United States will opt
for the military action." .
"Covert actions don't tend to work, particularly against someone so good at staying in power. His presidential
guards are faithful to him, and most people are fearful of him. They may not participate in a coup attempt. Plans
like this make the Arab world nervous." He believes that the military action against Iraq will easily succeed, but it
will be more difficult to put together an alliance to rule over Iraq after Saddam.
"There are groups like the Iraqi National Congress and Kurdish parties, but calling them an alliance will be a overstatement,"
he said. "Like in Afghanistan, the United States will have to force people to work together, telling that
they would get U.S. support only if they work together.". ..
Baghdad's Neighbors Nervous As U.S. Weighs Options .•
Radio Free Europe
Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) By Charles Recknagel February 14, 2002
Prague - As Washington toughens its rhetoric toward Baghdad, Iraq's neighbors are growing increasingly nervous
that theU.s. could next target Iraq in its war on terror. "
The past few weeks have seen the U.S. administration increasingly move from terming Iraq a regional menace to
calling it a threat to America's own national security. That shift in terminology manifested itself most dramatically
in a speech byU.S. .
President George W. Bush last month (29 January) in which he labeled Baghdad part of an "axis of evil" that also
includes Iran and North Korea. Since then, top U.S. officials have made it clear Washington reserves the right to
act unilaterally to remove any danger that Iraq might one day supply weapons of mass destruction to terrorists.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said last week that the United States continues to look at possibilities for a regi- "
me change in Baghdad and that Bush is examining "the"most serious assessment of options one might imagine."
Powell added, however, that while "with Iraq, we are always examining options for regime change ...we are not
[now] at some point where we are going into contingency plans to invade Iraq." The repeated signals that
Washington views Baghdad as a potential target in its war on terror come as U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney prepares
to make a Mideast tour next month. The "Los Angeles Tunes" reported that the U.S. administration is expected
to complete an Iraq policy review by the time of Cheney's trip so that he can outline future American plans to
Arab leaders. Ahead of Cheney's trip -- his first to the region as vice president -- several countries are expressing
nervousness over Washington's increasingly tough talk on Baghdad.
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit told reporters on 11 February that Ankara does not want "a militaryaction
against Iraq." Asked why he had chosen this moment to re- state Turkey's fears, he added that "events are developing
very quickly" and "at least we have given a warning." Turkish analysts say Ankara iswilling to help
Washington apply political pressure on Baghdad over any terrorism concerns. But it views any military acnon
against Iraq as carrying a high risk for destabilizing the region.
Seyfi Tashan, director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara, also expressed
Turkish reservations: "Obviously, Turkey would not leave the United States [to stand] alone if the U.S."demands
certain [political] contributions from Turkey, though the form of these contributions is not yet absolutely clear." He
continued: "[However,] Turkey does not wish to get mvolved in a warlike situation with Iraq. And secondly, there
is a general belief that if there is a U:S. intervention in Iraq, then Iraq may, let's say, break down, be partitioned and
that then maybe [there would be] a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq, [and that is] anathema'for Turkey."
Jordan -- another of Iraq's neighbors and a key U.s.. ally -- also is urging Washington to be cautious. Shortly after
Bush's speech last month, Jordan's King Abdullah warned that targeting Iraq would "create immense instability in
the whole region." Other states have given mixed responses to the prospect of U.S. action.
Saudi Arabia has warned against any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq but indicated it would work closely with
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