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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti
respects the interim government and will
cooperate with it," says Abbas Maleki, a
conservative former foreign-policy advis-
- er.-"But naturally the Mgh~ Qeople may
want others in power, to reflect the real
choice of the Afghan people."
Whether Iran will aggressively try to
influence that choice may depend on
whether Khatami can face down the conservatives,
who in the past have supported'
operations to sabotage the reformist agenda.
Khatami has largely purged.the military
and intelligence apparatus of the rogue
squads and increased oversight of the
unregulated religious funds that financed
them. Reformists have' tried to increase
their influence through the foreign-policy
commission in Parliament, which supports
dialogue with the West and wants to cut
funding to groups like Hamas and Islamic
Jihad.
"We're willing to say anything the mullahs.
want," says a promiI1ent Ïegislator.
"But we're trying to make sure not a cent
more of Iranian money goes to these
groups." Yet in re_centmO!lth~Jor~es loyal
to Khamenei have clamped down Ollthereformists.Hard-liners
in the ruling Guardian
Council have paralyzed the Parliament
by blocking reform legislation, while
. the conservative-controlled judiciary has
imprisoned onelegislator and is prosecuting
30 others on trumped-up charges.
Some Western officials think that because
of the uncertainty of Iran's political
situation, the U.S. and its allies should
throw their support squarely behind
Khatami, despite his nationalism and refusal
to give up Iran's weapons program.
"It's up to the West to give him as much
support as it can," says a senior British official.
"You want to think about how you
use the tools you have to help it make a
break with terrorism."
That's one argument for easing sanctions
against Tehran. And it's another reason
the West's long-term commitment to
rebl!ild bfgh~ni~an looms so large. The
West now has the opportUnityto show-that
countries can reap benefits for renouncing
terrorism, not simply avoidpunishment.
Many Irimians are watching to see
whèther Afghanistan, with American help,
can become a modem, functional state
freed fromthe grip of fundamentalismthe
kind of country they wantfor themselves.
The U.S. has never had a better
chance to convince Iraniansthey ca'n get it
too. -Reported by Scott Macleod/Cairo, J.F.O.
McAllister/London, Tim McGirk/Kabul, Azadeh
Moaveni/Tehran, Michael Ware/Kandahar and
Adam Zagorin!Washington
'
Iraq'sTempting
Oil Tests U.S.-Russia Ties
By Michael Wines
New York Times Service
. MOSCOW -'- President George W. Bush
may have plenty of reasons why Russia, his new
, ally in the war on terrorism, should stop cozying
up to Iraq, one of the states he sees as part of an
"axis of evil. "
But Leonid Fedun has 20 billion reasons why
Russia should not.
Mr. Fedun is vice president for development
at Lukoil, Russia's biggest oil company. He
oversees a 23-year contract to develop Iraq's
West Qurna oil field - 667 million tons of
,crude, ahalf-million barrels a day - and
one of the world's largest oil deposits. It
is potentially, he says, a $20 billion
moneymaker.
,But only potentially. Thanks to UN
sanctions on 'Iraq, Lukoil has not pumped
a drop from West Qurna since it won
drilling rights in 1997. With the United
States now talking openly of removing President
Saddam Hussein of Iraq from power, Mr. Fedun
wonders whether Lukoil ever will payoff.
,'If the Anlericans start military operations
against Iraq," he said, "we may lose a contract,
and American oil companies will come in our
place. No one has ever said the opposite."
For two nations that have jointly pledged to
stem the spread .of terror, weapons and the
despots who wpuld use them, agreeing on what
to do about Mr. Saddam is the fIrst serious test
of a wobbly new friendship, with pragmatism
and suspicion rife on both sides.
'Tm very critical of Russian supporters of
Saädam," said Andrei Kozyrev, former President
Boris Yeltsin' s fIrst foreign minister and
Qne pf the United States~ more consistent supporters
in Moscow. "But spe*ing about Washington,
it's a very, very awkwarf:i,very simplistic
and inflexible approach they take toward
Iraq. There' s a lot of room for improvement. ' ,
Some American experts are' no less con- ' of-dollars in oil èontracts with Russian compafounded
about Russia's aims. "Do I want to nies;'and billions of dollars'.more in trading that
curry favor with the Ifaqi regime?'.' 'asked Eu- could,be donewith a pro-RussIan government
gene Rumer, a Stàte Departmentpolicy in Baghdad.
strategist in the Clinton administration who is The U.S. silence on Russia's actual and ponow
a Russia scholarat the National Defense tential stake in Iraq only solidifies the con-
University in Washington. . viction of sorne Russians that the White House
"Or.do I wantto maintain a solid relationship carinot be-trusted to play fair - new friendship
with the United States and, to a lesser degree, or not.
with Europe? The answer to that ought to be So far, Mr. Saddam has played deftly on
fairly obvious. " . America' s rage and Russia' s fears. He gave
Even after Sept. 11, Russia has clung to its Russia by far the largest share of Iraq's conposition
as Iraq's chief protector against new tracts last year - $1.3 bilIion- under the UN
UN sanctions or a new U.S. attack.
oil-far-food program, which allows Iraq to sell
oil to buy supplies to help Iraqi civilians.
,. '" ,
In late September: daysafter President
Vladimir Putin cast Russia' s lot in with
the West's war on terrorism ànd the
White House began expressing .ltS concern
about" Iraq, :Baghdad annoùnced
plans to award Russian. companies another
$40 billion in contracts as soon as UN '
The United States has done almostnothing
to allay Russia's fèar for its
multibillion-dollar stake in Iraq.
The Kremlin also wants an end to British and
U.S. patrols of the no-flight zones that were
imposed after the Gulf War toprevent Mr.
,Saddam's jets from bombing Iraq's Kurdish
and Shiite minorities. Russia argues that the
United Nations never specifically approved
such zones.
Mr. Rumer argues - and some Russians
agree - that the Kremlin has let Russia's best
interests in Iraq take a back seat to the agendas
of a powerful oil industry and a bureaucracy still
nursing Cold War resentments.
For its part, however, the United States has
done almost nothing to allay Russia's very real
fear: that if Mr. Saddam goes, Russia's multibillion-dollar
stake and its itûluence in Iraq will
go:with him. ,.
Baghdad still owes Russia at least $8 billion
from the days of the Cold War when, as a client
state, Iraq outfitted its military with armor
bought on Soviet credit. Then there are billions
sanctions were lifted.
'
The Kremlin offers some diplomatic arguments
for its policy: that the United States has
overstepped the UN mandate on Iraq and that it
is unproved that Iraq is developing weapons of
mass destruction or supporting terrorism.
Russia does not say that Mr. Saddam is a
friend, because he is not. "There are no emotional
bonds between the Russians and the
Iraqis," said Dmitri Trenin, a top expert on
Russian foreign policy at the' Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace in Moscow.
"It's not Yugoslavia or Serbia. You have to talk
about interests - very specific, very easily
identifiable interests."
Experts on both sides s~y a savvy Kremlin
almost surely would grab any U.S. compromise
that reaSsured Russia on its economic interests
and unpaid debt in exchange for Moscow' shelp
in increasing pressure on Mr. Saddam.
-, ,
.)
I
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2002
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