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Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti __ 16 ET 17 FEVRIER 2Ô02 Scénario à l'afghane contre Saddam Wœhington pourrait aider L'oppo~itionimkienne àrenver6erLe régime. équiperait et qu'on ai- parl'ONU.» Tempête du désert menée ily a deraità menacer Bag- =onze ans, au cours de laquelle dad,grâceàl'appuide ap6eia11_ 500000 hommes. avaient été l'aviation et des forees .... ~ mobiliséscontre Saddam Husw .. de notre coTTe6pondant O 'W1commentaireàl'autre, les Etats-Unis s'approchent depuis fin janvier d'W1e guerre avec l'Irak de Saddam Hussein. Depuis le discours sur «l'axe du mal» de George W. Bush, le 29 janvier, lesresponsables américains se sont faits chaque jour plus tranchants. En privé, certains d'entre eux ont même confié que la question riétait plus de savoir s'il fallait intervenir, mais «quand et comment». cOptIons». Pourlescommentateurs américains, plus de doute: Washington ne veut plus gérer léproblème irakien, mais le résoudre. «La probabilité pour que nous renversions Saddam està mon avisde60 %, estime Michael O'Hanlon, le spécialiste de la défense de la Brookings Institution, mais je pense que Bush n'a pas encore tranché, et Saddœn peut encore influer sur sa dkision en acceptant ou non l'inspection de ses armements par l'ONU.» Pour la première fois, mardi devant le Congrès, Colin Powell, le moins va-t-en-guerre
Revue de Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka Çapê-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Baszn Özeti International Herald Tribune Tuesday, February 19,2002 Washington ought to listen • By Michael Naumann Europe doesn'twant war in Iraq . HAMBURG. InJune 1981,Menachem Begin, ordered a posse of F-16.jets to take out Saddam Hussein's two nuclear reactors. With vast petroleum reserves, -.Iraq haq no imaginable need for nucléar energy - exceptto make bombs. And Saddam had openly declared his intention to attack Israel. . Publicly, Prime Minister Begin was scorned for .his outrageous breach of internationallaw. Privately, however, many politicians agreed: Why not destroy Iraq~s potentially murderous nuclear toys? Saddam did go on to start twO wars. But he lost both, and if he had been armed with nuclear bombs, world his- , ,tory could have taken a very ugly turn. . However, while the man is dangerous and crazy, we do not know that he has weapons of mass destruction. He seeIlll! to have had precious little connection to Sept. n. Hisarmy has been destroyed Therefore, two decades after Begin's attack, America's European' allies would deplore a repetition of the Gulf War. Their doubts are born from an ingrained sense of realpolitik. , Europe learned a lesson in World War I. Slipping into a conflict became a basic fear. Europeans' great source of anxiety was the prospeCt of being caught in an uncontrollable military escalation. The trauma ofWorld War II, and the experience of senseless and genocidal colonial wars before and after it, combined to telescope this fear into a collective memory tha~ we have today. While American patriotism. proudly ,celebrates its armed forces' power and victories, Europe's diverse loyalties and identities are formed by a war-weary pessimism thoroughly grounded in our history. Wars can be just, certainly those fought in self-defense can; but they can be bloody useless, too. This pessimism may shade, potentially, into appeasement, yet its roots are real. They explai,n :Europeall reluctance to intervene quickly in Bosnia..;...a deplorable reluctapce, in hindsight - and the present refusal to joJn a~s with the United States agairist Iraq. This time, however, the powder keg is not the Balkans but the highly armed, explosive MideasL Too many guns are drawn, too many fingers are on the triggers, and some of them could be on nuclear bombs. This should be the hour of forceful diplomacy,not to be mistak~n for appeaseme~t. The distance between Europe's leaders and the' Bush administration continues to grow. The existence of a new threat, global terrorism, is undisputed But Washington's unilateralism looks from here like simply a form of America's long-standing isolationism, whi~h' is to say that the distance is created by America, not by Europe. Perhaps NATO members should not whine so much about being left out of Pentagon planning sessions. But the Unit~d States might benefit from reca~ling the late Senator, J. :William' Fulbright's ' diatribes against "arrogance of power." T!!chriological breakthroughs may have enforced a n~w military paradigm in the Pentagon. High-tech wars at a distance'are now feasible and less dangerous for American forces. Yet the old conundrum of ' military history, what to do with the losers, remains unsolved. Who would govern Iraq after Saddam? ' And would theshaky mullahs in Tehran take "anti-American" revenge on their domestic reform- ,ist opponents (and seize Iraq's south)? ' . Would Vladimir Putin be able to corral his restl~ss opposition in the underpaid and corrupt Rus-, SIan Army? He would certainly renew Moscow's refl~x, in times ~of trans-Atlantic disagreement, to drIve a wedge mto the Western alliance, this time on the strength ofRussia's oil reserves. , In the meantime, general elections are looming in France (May) and ~ermany (September), along with possible realignments that could draw Europe away from the United States. . , . A war in Iraq would strengthen Germany's pacifISt Party of Democratic Socialism at the expense of ;th~ ~reens and th~ir pro-American .MinIster Joschka FIscher. leader, Foreign ' ' Chancellor Gerhard Schröder succeeded by just a few votes in getting approval for German troops to ,help ke~p the peace inKabul. Conflict in Iraq would fo~ce hIm to !ßa.ke the most difficult political com" mltment of hIS lIfe - to follow America, come what may. !hat could cause him to lose in September. NeIther Jacques Chirac nor Lionel Jospin would support war in Iraq. And Tony Blair? He is many t~ings, but he is not Margaret Thatcher. He was in-' dlcating before anyone even asked that Iraq would be, for him, an adventure too far. ' , Ultimately, Washington should return to the fold of its once strong Atlantic partnership even if it I!leans !osing milit.ary momentum. A fragmented allIance ID Euro~e I~ much more difficult to repair ,t~n a brok~n plpel~ne. A truly enforced policy of serIOUSsanctIons agamst Iraq - and persuading Turkey to .stop breaking them - would bemore useful. , AskIng French, English, Russian and German businesses to suspend their lucrative dealings with Sadda~'s corrupt cronies; having governments freeze • theIr bank accounts; rekindling negotiations be- .tween Israel and the Palestinians - all that would be ..l,essspectacular than cruise missiles and Navy Seals televised in green night vision. But it could dislodge the enemy with~>Utda~ag~ng valued frie~dships. In the meantime, let s fmd Osa ma bin Laden to- ,gether. If alive, he is certainly not in Baghdad. ' !he writer, a former German minister of culture, is e~ltor and publrsher of the weekly Die Zeit. He con-' trtbuted this comment to The New York TImes. 78
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