Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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20 then at its best, and renewable power – even without adding environmental or other values that could be attributed to certain kinds of renewable electricity generation – can compete on the wholesale electricity market. Figure 3 Cost Competitiveness of Selected Renewable Power Technologies. Small-hydro Solar photovoltaics Concentrating solar Biomass Geothermal Wind Wholesale power p price Retail consumer power p price 10 20 30 40 50 Power generation costs in USD cents/ s kWh Note: Cost calculation is based on system investment needed (capital cost is based on discount rate of 6% and amortisation period of 15 - 25 years) and power output. Lowest cost range refers to optimum conditions (proven technology, optimised plant size and design, and high availability of system and resources). Source: NET Ltd. Switzerland. Solar technologies are, for the time being, generally not competitive with wholesale electricity, but even they start to compete with retail electricity in certain circumstances where supportive policy frameworks have been established. For instance, photovoltaic solar power is competitive in areas where high solar irradiation coincides with daily (peak) power demand, and high retail electricity costs, in a supportive policy environment. California and other parts of the Southwest United States are examples of such conditions, and such areas have become strong commercial markets. ● Market Prospects Based on current market levels and expected cost reductions, market growth for all six renewable technologies for 2010 is forecast to increase from 95.5 GW to 257 GW, or 10.4% p.a. This forecast assumes continued government support and that no outside factors will significantly alter the competitive environment. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY X
Table 3 Current and Forecast Installed Capacity Installed capacity Installed capacity in 2000 in GW in 2010 in GW (forecast) Small hydro power 32 45 Solar photovoltaic power 1.1 11 Concentrating solar power 0.4 2 Biopower 37 55 Geothermal power 8 14 Wind power 17 130 Source: NET Ltd. Switzerland. The forecasted numbers presented here are consistent with the policy changes regarding renewables occurring in some major emerging countries, e.g. China, India, parts of South East Asia and South America, but also in some key OECD countries. In the emerging countries, these policies reflect the rapidly growing demand for electricity which can in particular situations increasingly be met by renewable energy on a competitive basis. In OECD countries, the growing penetration of renewable energy is also a consequence of policy changes related to reducing the environmental impact and increasing the diversification of energy supply as well as increasing energy security, and, last but not least, a growing global renewable energy industry. In some OECD countries with favourable market frameworks, vigorous growth of renewable energy technologies is observed. As a consequence, some of today’s secondary markets for renewables, e.g. offshore wind, are expected to play a major role over the next decade. In brief, growth patterns fall into 3 categories: ● Traditional technologies with steady growth: Small hydropower, geothermal power and biopower have been produced for most of the time there has been a utility electricity system. Their annual growth rates are likely to continue at between 1% and 9%. The removal of market barriers and establishment of supportive policies could keep this in the higher end of the range, particularly in developing countries. ● New technologies with vigorous growth: Development of wind power and solar photovoltaics started only a few decades ago. For the past five years or more, they have experienced growth rates between 20% and EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 21
Page 1: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
Page 4 and 5: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
Page 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
Page 10 and 11: 8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
Page 12 and 13: 10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
Page 15 and 16: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
Page 17 and 18: Technology and Technological Develo
Page 19 and 20: Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
Page 21: Table 2 Ranges of Investment and Ge
Page 25 and 26: generation. Better power quality re
Page 27: per kWh from plants with proven con
Page 30 and 31: 28 Renewables for Power Generation
Page 32 and 33: 30 ● basic features: characterist
Page 34 and 35: 32 The natural factors which affect
Page 36 and 37: 34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
Page 38 and 39: 36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
Page 40 and 41: Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
Page 42 and 43: Electricity generation cost in USD
Page 44 and 45: ● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
Page 50 and 51: 48 Table 5 Key Factors for SHP Pote
Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
Page 55 and 56: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER A Brief Hi
Page 57 and 58: to the alternating current (AC) req
Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
Page 61 and 62: companies like Sharp, Kyocera and S
Page 63 and 64: sells customised module manufacturi
Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67 and 68: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 69 and 70: Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0
Page 71 and 72: This is seen most often in Japan, a
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System DC/AC unit costs (individual
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issue as production levels increase
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chemistry. Such developments - ulti
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78 delivered to the receiver. The r
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80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
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Electricity generation cost USD cen
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84 An example of a CSP industry is
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86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
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88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
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90 innovations have influenced all
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92 receiver technology is entering
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94 energy storage) and higher solar
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96 but solar-field maintenance cost
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98 Further cost reductions will be
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100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
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BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
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transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
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100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
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● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
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Gross electricty generation in GWh
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Specific investement costs in € p
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Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
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€/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
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coal at the inlet to the mill, b) f
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Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
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GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
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eached relatively shallow depths (5
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Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
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An example of a large scale power p
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● Industry The international geot
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Cumulative global geothermal power
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Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
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The following are areas where R&D c
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● Market Opportunities Market Pot
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the simplest form of local distribu
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Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
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Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
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CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
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RETScreen International: http://www
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