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Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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86<br />

If CSP plants are hybridised with a conventional fossil plant, emissions will be<br />

released from the non-solar portion of the plant.<br />

Prospects for Concentrating Solar Power<br />

Parabolic trough plants are the most mature CSP technology available today<br />

and are most likely to be used in the near term. Power towers, with their<br />

possibility of thermal storage, offer the promise of dispatchable, solar-only<br />

plants with high annual capacity in the medium to long term. Dish engines<br />

are smaller and more modular, presenting the opportunities for a wide array<br />

of energy services in sunny areas.<br />

● Cost Reduction Opportunities<br />

Early trough plants produced power for about USD 0.25/kWh in niche<br />

markets. As continuing R&D improved plant performance and lowered O&M<br />

costs, and as economies of scale for larger plants were achieved, power costs<br />

from the most recent plants dropped to about USD 0.12/kWh, the lowestcost<br />

solar power in the world. While the costs of new plants built with<br />

advanced technologies may initially be slightly higher than the recent trough<br />

plants, they may drop with the construction and successful operation of the<br />

first few advanced plants, demonstrating a learning curve similar or even<br />

more pronounced than that seen at the SEGS plants. This could result in<br />

costs of about USD 0.10/kWh within five years. The industry’s trough<br />

technology roadmap lays out a detailed strategy to combine technology<br />

advances in receivers, reflectors and structures, thermal storage and plant<br />

optimisation to reduce costs to less than USD 0.05/kWh in 15 to 20 years. If<br />

this occurs, CSP in areas with high insolation could be reasonably<br />

competitive with conventional resources in those markets by 2020.<br />

Figure 33 shows past and predicted capital and electricity costs for each CSP<br />

technology. The relationship between capital cost and electricity cost<br />

depends on many factors, in particular the hours of system operation, debt<br />

and depreciation time. For that reason, dish systems will have a higher<br />

electricity cost than power tower systems even if the future capital cost for<br />

both systems is predicted to be very close.<br />

Cost reduction typically comes from four areas:<br />

● R&D: Performance improvements through R&D reduce the cost of<br />

enhanced and optimised components and subsystems. Efforts are<br />

focusing mainly on reflectors and receivers, thermal-storage capability,<br />

heat transfer fluid (HTF), hybridisation and the power cycle.<br />

CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER X4

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