Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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energy storage) and higher solar-to-thermal efficiency. Therefore it is
realistic to assume comparable and even better progress ratios than for
parabolic trough technology. Costs are predicted to decrease according to a
learning rate close to 20%.
Figure 36
Past and Predicted CSP Installed Capacity
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
2020
Parabolic dish Power tower Parabolic trough
Source: NET Ltd., Switzerland.
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Based on the large potential of dish/engine systems, and taking into account
lessons learnt during the commercialisation of trough technology, similar or
better progress ratios can be imagined for parabolic dish technology
compared to parabolic trough technology. Costs are predicted to decrease
according to a learning rate in the range of 10% to 25%. This means that
with a cumulative installed capacity of around 5,000 MW, electricity from
parabolic dish systems could become competitive with other systems for
small energy services, and compete with diesel generators or PV in very sunny
locations.
Figure 37 provides an overview of possible CSP technology costs in the
medium to long term, based on a progress ratio of 85% for the three different
CSP technologies and a global growth rate close to 25%, as predicted by the
US DOE. Take-off costs would be reached between 2010 and 2020. Studies
have shown that CSP costs could drop towards levels similar to those
produced by wind power, at which time CSP markets may grow in a similar
way to the wind market, although in quite different regions.
CSP installed capacity [MW]
CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER X4