Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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66 ● increased cell efficiency (a 2% to 4% cell efficiency increase translates into an efficiency gain of 20% for established crystalline silicon technologies and up to 40% for thin-film technologies); ● improved manufacturing and handling processes (fewer broken and outof-spec products, improved material utilisation). The cost reduction potential is around 25% for a tenfold up-scaling and another 25% for increased cell efficiency and enhanced processes. Key findings from various studies indicate: ● cost reduction potential in semiconductor processing must be exploited to lower manufacturing costs; ● feedstock issues become more important for crystalline silicon once manufacturing costs have substantially decreased. Thus, availability of low-cost material must be assured; ● costs for other materials (substrates, encapsulants, pottants, mounts, electrical connections) dominate when semiconductor costs are optimised; ● overhead costs decrease in relative terms when manufacturing volumes increase. Projected costs vary considerably for individual PV cell and module technologies but have common aspects: R&D and increased volume can contribute to overall cost reductions of almost 50% within a decade in the areas of feedstock, device and cell efficiency, and manufacturing processing. Although modules represent about 60% of grid-connected system costs, reducing the cost of components BOS is also important for bringing down total system costs. For instance, the efficiency rate of common inverters in the range of 1.5-3.3 kW was between 85.5% and 90% in the years 1988 to 1990. Today their efficiency is above 90%, even for smaller units (100-200 W), and is often close to 95% for the most common models. Technical improvements are expected to increase efficiency and extend their lifetime to 15 - 20 years. Costs for inverters in particular could be reduced through higher manufacturing volumes. Cost reductions have been more substantial for BOS (inverter, mounting structure, installation labour and planning) than for modules in recent years, especially in markets that have reached a critical mass in volume sales, such as residential systems in Japan and Germany. For example, installation costs are lowest for 2 kW PV installations in Germany thanks to enhanced standardisation of planning and mounting procedures and materials, as well as installation experience that has resulted in the need for less on-site labour. In Japan, PV is becoming a common building material. Many houses are SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER X3
Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 either prefabricated or constructed of standardised building components. These building trends favour the integration of solar modules. This advantage has been recognised by solar manufacturers and they have either bought housing or construction companies, or concluded strategic alliances with such companies. For stand-alone systems, storage is a key issue. Battery system components have been adapted for the charge/discharge behaviour of PV in order to increase battery life span. Special software is used to design systems for specific locations and circumstances. Economies of scale with respect to the size of the generation plant contribute to reduce system and installation costs. Data from the Swiss PV subsidy programme from 1997 to 2001 show economies of scale averaging 14% for medium to large-scale (> 50 kW) plants compared to small-scale (2-4 kW) plants. Cost data do not distinguish between different types of installations but only between different size classes. Note that generation costs came down by around 20% from 1999-2001 for small-scale installations (up to 10 kW) and by around 10% for larger installations. This underpins the fact that volume (experience and standardised procedures for small-scale applications) induces considerable cost reductions and that economies of scale, due to PV generator size, are less significant compared to other technologies because of the modular structure of PV. Figure 25 Average Generation Costs for Different PV System Size Classes in Germany, 1999-2001 3 < 2 kWp 2-3 kWp 3-5 kWp 5-10 kWp 10-50 kWp 50-120 kWp Year 1999 Year 2000 Year 2001 Source: Data from German Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour. SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER 67
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
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8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
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10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
Page 17 and 18: Technology and Technological Develo
Page 19 and 20: Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
Page 21 and 22: Table 2 Ranges of Investment and Ge
Page 23 and 24: Table 3 Current and Forecast Instal
Page 25 and 26: generation. Better power quality re
Page 27: per kWh from plants with proven con
Page 30 and 31: 28 Renewables for Power Generation
Page 32 and 33: 30 ● basic features: characterist
Page 34 and 35: 32 The natural factors which affect
Page 36 and 37: 34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
Page 38 and 39: 36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
Page 40 and 41: Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
Page 42 and 43: Electricity generation cost in USD
Page 44 and 45: ● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
Page 50 and 51: 48 Table 5 Key Factors for SHP Pote
Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
Page 55 and 56: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER A Brief Hi
Page 57 and 58: to the alternating current (AC) req
Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
Page 61 and 62: companies like Sharp, Kyocera and S
Page 63 and 64: sells customised module manufacturi
Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 71 and 72: This is seen most often in Japan, a
Page 73 and 74: System DC/AC unit costs (individual
Page 75 and 76: issue as production levels increase
Page 77: chemistry. Such developments - ulti
Page 80 and 81: 78 delivered to the receiver. The r
Page 82 and 83: 80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
Page 84 and 85: Electricity generation cost USD cen
Page 86 and 87: 84 An example of a CSP industry is
Page 88 and 89: 86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
Page 90 and 91: 88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
Page 92 and 93: 90 innovations have influenced all
Page 94 and 95: 92 receiver technology is entering
Page 96 and 97: 94 energy storage) and higher solar
Page 98 and 99: 96 but solar-field maintenance cost
Page 100 and 101: 98 Further cost reductions will be
Page 102 and 103: 100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
Page 105 and 106: BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
Page 107 and 108: transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
Page 109 and 110: 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
Page 111 and 112: ● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
Page 113 and 114: Gross electricty generation in GWh
Page 115 and 116: Specific investement costs in € p
Page 117 and 118: Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
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€/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
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coal at the inlet to the mill, b) f
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Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
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GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
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eached relatively shallow depths (5
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Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
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An example of a large scale power p
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● Industry The international geot
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Cumulative global geothermal power
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Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
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The following are areas where R&D c
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● Market Opportunities Market Pot
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the simplest form of local distribu
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Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
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Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
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CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
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RETScreen International: http://www
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