Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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28 Renewables for Power Generation 2003: Status and Prospects hopes to assist decision makers by supplying an accurate and comprehensive overview of the renewable technology sector. This study assesses the current situation and future opportunities for the six main “new” renewable energy technologies that produce electricity. These are: ● small hydropower; ● solar photovoltaics; ● concentrating solar power; ● biopower; ● geothermal power; ● wind power. The study consists of new analysis on the interaction of technology development and market experience, and a synthesis of insightful studies performed by government agencies and private sector organisations. This publication has consciously excluded other renewable technologies that are at an earlier stage of development, such as ocean energy, as the current focus on them is solely in the realm of research and demonstration. It has also excluded large hydropower, as most IEA governments consider them to be mature and competitive. The challenge is to consider the entire technology progression from the laboratory, to manufacturing, to market use, as well as from the relationships of these technologies to each other and within the wider energy sector, and do so, both in an inter-sectorial and cross-technological fashion. An inter-sectorial view is useful because there are important technologyindustry-market relationships that affect renewable energy technologies all along the value chain, while providing opportunities for “technology learning”. Technology learning is the term for the empirical observation that the cost of an industrially manufactured product decreases by a more or less constant percentage each time the cumulative volume of the product is doubled. Expressed as the “experience curve”, technology learning thus reflects the virtuous cycle with both technology development and market deployment issues. The experience (or “learning”) curve translates the complex interactions among technology, industry and market into a simplified relationship. However, the experience curve only reflects an empirical relationship between the input and output of a black-box-like learning system and does not explain the processes going on within the learning system. But, if correctly applied and interpreted, the experience INTRODUCTION X1
curve helps identify crucial elements behind and beyond the simple relationship it represents. The learning process is not unique to renewables, but is typical for all energy technologies and, indeed, all manufactured goods. The rate of “learning” is different for each technology, and typically slows as technologies progress through the several stages from laboratory to full maturity. This is why renewables costs are declining faster today than those of fossil technologies: renewables are less mature. Knowing the rate of learning, and understanding the workings within the learning system, can give important insights about future technology and market potentials*. Technology learning in renewable energy (RE) systems provides three key benefits: ● reduction of system cost: the system delivers the service less expensively; ● increase of system performance: the system delivers the service more efficiently; ● enhancement of system applicability: the system can deliver new services. A cross-technological view is useful for understanding how renewable electricity technologies as a whole can best be developed and deployed by understanding how they complement each other, as well as conventional energy technologies in a more diversified portfolio. Although the electricity produced by renewables does not differ from that of competing sources, the technologies, services and benefits do. Different renewables have specific features and applications which typically cover a different range from those of competing fuel technologies. It is essential to consider these differences in relation to technology, maturity and potential, as well as market segments and growth. The cross-technological perspective allows the reader to compare commonalities and differences among the six renewable technologies examined in this study. To this end, each chapter is organised along a common structure: Technology Status The sections on technology status are descriptive and present the current technical and economic conditions of the technology as follows: * Technology learning can also be expressed in "progress ratios", which is the learning rate subtracted from 100%. 1 INTRODUCTION 29
Page 1: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
Page 4 and 5: INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
Page 7: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
Page 10 and 11: 8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
Page 12 and 13: 10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
Page 15 and 16: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
Page 17 and 18: Technology and Technological Develo
Page 19 and 20: Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
Page 21 and 22: Table 2 Ranges of Investment and Ge
Page 23 and 24: Table 3 Current and Forecast Instal
Page 25 and 26: generation. Better power quality re
Page 27: per kWh from plants with proven con
Page 32 and 33: 30 ● basic features: characterist
Page 34 and 35: 32 The natural factors which affect
Page 36 and 37: 34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
Page 38 and 39: 36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
Page 40 and 41: Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
Page 42 and 43: Electricity generation cost in USD
Page 44 and 45: ● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
Page 50 and 51: 48 Table 5 Key Factors for SHP Pote
Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
Page 55 and 56: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER A Brief Hi
Page 57 and 58: to the alternating current (AC) req
Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
Page 61 and 62: companies like Sharp, Kyocera and S
Page 63 and 64: sells customised module manufacturi
Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67 and 68: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 69 and 70: Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0
Page 71 and 72: This is seen most often in Japan, a
Page 73 and 74: System DC/AC unit costs (individual
Page 75 and 76: issue as production levels increase
Page 77: chemistry. Such developments - ulti
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78 delivered to the receiver. The r
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80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
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Electricity generation cost USD cen
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84 An example of a CSP industry is
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86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
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88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
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90 innovations have influenced all
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92 receiver technology is entering
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94 energy storage) and higher solar
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96 but solar-field maintenance cost
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98 Further cost reductions will be
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100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
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BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
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transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
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100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
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● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
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Gross electricty generation in GWh
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Specific investement costs in € p
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Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
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€/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
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coal at the inlet to the mill, b) f
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Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
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GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
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eached relatively shallow depths (5
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Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
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An example of a large scale power p
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● Industry The international geot
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Cumulative global geothermal power
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Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
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The following are areas where R&D c
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● Market Opportunities Market Pot
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the simplest form of local distribu
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Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
Page 183 and 184:
Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
Page 187 and 188:
CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
Page 191:
RETScreen International: http://www
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Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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