Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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Price of photovoltaic module in USD per W 100 10 70 Figure 26 Experience Curve for PV Modules, 1968-2002 1 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Cumulative global photovoltaic module shipment in MW Source: IIASA/Harmon. Regional Factors PV is unlikely to be a significant contributor to the energy balance in the short to medium term. Current market growth of 30% per year is the result of government incentives. The resulting cost reductions are impressive, as every doubling of the volume produced has brought about a cost decrease of some 20%. Many countries adopted specific policy and industry goals for PV over the past decade. Japan’s official growth goal is 4.82 GW by 2010, and the US industry’s target is 2.14 GW. The European Commission’s target is 3 GW of installed PV power by 2010. The European PV Industry Association (EPIA) has about the same target. Another 1.2 GW of installed capacity is forecast for the rest of the world. In order to achieve these goals, according to EPIA, annual cell and module production would need to grow to around 870 MW for Europe, 1,360 MW for Japan and 450 MW for the US, with additional production outside these areas. To reach these ambitious goals of more than 11 GW of installed PV power worldwide by 2010, the global growth rate would have to be close to 30%, resulting in a yearly global shipment of PV cell and module production of around 2.9 GW in 2010. Since these goals were fixed, PV has experienced vigorous growth. Based on a more conservative interpretation of potential market expansion, annual volume may grow from 0.5 GW in 2002 to around 2 GW in 2010. Cumulative global capacity might increase from 2 GW in 2002 to around 11 GW in 2010. As a result of cost improvements from a market of this scale, system costs would then be around USD 3 to 3.5 per W and could drop by another 40 to 50% by SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER X3
System DC/AC unit costs (individual home basis) per W in 1997 USD 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2020. These cost figures fit quite well with forecasts given by the World Energy Council with projected installed system capital cost of around USD 1,500 per kW for PV solar technology in 2020 and by EPRI/DOE for building-integrated PV systems costing around USD 2,000 per kW (see Figure 27). Figure 27 Cost Development and Indicators for Photovoltaic Systems In sum, about half of the future cost decreases for PV will be the result of R&D into improving materials, processes, conversion efficiency and design. Substantial cost reductions can also be gained through increased manufacturing volume and economies of scale. Increasing the size of components and plants will also reduce costs. 3 1997 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year PV module cost USD/W Power-related BOS USD/W Area-related BOS USD/W (DC) Area-related BOS USD/W (AC) Note: Based on crystalline silicon residential systems. Sources: EPRI, US DOE. Table 14 Cost Reduction Opportunities for Solar Photovoltaics (%) Solar Up to photovoltaics 20-25 R&D Economy of scale I Economy of scale II Economy of scale III (components size) (manufacturing (plant size) volume) SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER Up to 5 Up to 15 Up to 5 Note: In % within a decade based on expected technology learning and market growth. Source: <strong>NET</strong> Ltd., Switzerland. 71
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
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8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
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10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
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Technology and Technological Develo
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Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
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Page 23 and 24: Table 3 Current and Forecast Instal
Page 25 and 26: generation. Better power quality re
Page 27: per kWh from plants with proven con
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Page 32 and 33: 30 ● basic features: characterist
Page 34 and 35: 32 The natural factors which affect
Page 36 and 37: 34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
Page 38 and 39: 36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
Page 40 and 41: Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
Page 42 and 43: Electricity generation cost in USD
Page 44 and 45: ● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
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Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
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Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
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Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67 and 68: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 69 and 70: Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0
Page 71: This is seen most often in Japan, a
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Page 77: chemistry. Such developments - ulti
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Page 82 and 83: 80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
Page 84 and 85: Electricity generation cost USD cen
Page 86 and 87: 84 An example of a CSP industry is
Page 88 and 89: 86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
Page 90 and 91: 88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
Page 92 and 93: 90 innovations have influenced all
Page 94 and 95: 92 receiver technology is entering
Page 96 and 97: 94 energy storage) and higher solar
Page 98 and 99: 96 but solar-field maintenance cost
Page 100 and 101: 98 Further cost reductions will be
Page 102 and 103: 100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
Page 105 and 106: BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
Page 107 and 108: transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
Page 109 and 110: 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
Page 111 and 112: ● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
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Page 115 and 116: Specific investement costs in € p
Page 117 and 118: Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
Page 119 and 120: €/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
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Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
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GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
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eached relatively shallow depths (5
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Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
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An example of a large scale power p
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● Industry The international geot
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Cumulative global geothermal power
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Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
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The following are areas where R&D c
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● Market Opportunities Market Pot
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the simplest form of local distribu
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Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
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Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
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CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
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RETScreen International: http://www
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