Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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94 energy storage) and higher solar-to-thermal efficiency. Therefore it is realistic to assume comparable and even better progress ratios than for parabolic trough technology. Costs are predicted to decrease according to a learning rate close to 20%. Figure 36 Past and Predicted CSP Installed Capacity 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0 2020 Parabolic dish Power tower Parabolic trough Source: NET Ltd., Switzerland. 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Based on the large potential of dish/engine systems, and taking into account lessons learnt during the commercialisation of trough technology, similar or better progress ratios can be imagined for parabolic dish technology compared to parabolic trough technology. Costs are predicted to decrease according to a learning rate in the range of 10% to 25%. This means that with a cumulative installed capacity of around 5,000 MW, electricity from parabolic dish systems could become competitive with other systems for small energy services, and compete with diesel generators or PV in very sunny locations. Figure 37 provides an overview of possible CSP technology costs in the medium to long term, based on a progress ratio of 85% for the three different CSP technologies and a global growth rate close to 25%, as predicted by the US DOE. Take-off costs would be reached between 2010 and 2020. Studies have shown that CSP costs could drop towards levels similar to those produced by wind power, at which time CSP markets may grow in a similar way to the wind market, although in quite different regions. CSP installed capacity [MW] CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER X4
10000 Capital cost [USD/kW] Figure 37 Past and Predicted Experience Curves for CSP Technologies 1000 10 100 1000 Cumulative installed capacity [MW] 10000 100000 Parabolic trough Power tower Parabolic dish Source: NET Ltd., Switzerland. Issues for Further Progress The technical viability of CSP technologies has been demonstrated for parabolic trough technology, and is awaiting further development. Power tower technology requires the development of low-cost heliostats and several new demonstration plants. Parabolic dishes require the development of at least one commercial engine and the maturity of a low-cost concentrator. ● Technical Issues Suggestions for reducing CSP costs have been given by SunLab and SolarPACES. Innovation and research should focus on simplifying components and reducing materials use. Size Increasing plant size will increase manufacturing volume and reduce unit costs for both the power block and the solar field. O&M costs for larger plants will be less on a per-kilowatt basis because personnel requirements will be reduced. Power plant maintenance costs will be reduced with larger plants, 4 2010 CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER Experienced Expected PR 85% 2020 95
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
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8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
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10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
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Technology and Technological Develo
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Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
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Table 2 Ranges of Investment and Ge
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Table 3 Current and Forecast Instal
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generation. Better power quality re
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per kWh from plants with proven con
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28 Renewables for Power Generation
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30 ● basic features: characterist
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32 The natural factors which affect
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34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
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36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
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Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
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Electricity generation cost in USD
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● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
Page 50 and 51: 48 Table 5 Key Factors for SHP Pote
Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
Page 55 and 56: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER A Brief Hi
Page 57 and 58: to the alternating current (AC) req
Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
Page 61 and 62: companies like Sharp, Kyocera and S
Page 63 and 64: sells customised module manufacturi
Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67 and 68: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 69 and 70: Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0
Page 71 and 72: This is seen most often in Japan, a
Page 73 and 74: System DC/AC unit costs (individual
Page 75 and 76: issue as production levels increase
Page 77: chemistry. Such developments - ulti
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Page 82 and 83: 80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
Page 84 and 85: Electricity generation cost USD cen
Page 86 and 87: 84 An example of a CSP industry is
Page 88 and 89: 86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
Page 90 and 91: 88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
Page 92 and 93: 90 innovations have influenced all
Page 94 and 95: 92 receiver technology is entering
Page 98 and 99: 96 but solar-field maintenance cost
Page 100 and 101: 98 Further cost reductions will be
Page 102 and 103: 100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
Page 105 and 106: BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
Page 107 and 108: transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
Page 109 and 110: 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
Page 111 and 112: ● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
Page 113 and 114: Gross electricty generation in GWh
Page 115 and 116: Specific investement costs in € p
Page 117 and 118: Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
Page 119 and 120: €/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
Page 121 and 122: coal at the inlet to the mill, b) f
Page 123 and 124: Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
Page 125 and 126: GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
Page 127 and 128: eached relatively shallow depths (5
Page 129 and 130: Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
Page 131 and 132: An example of a large scale power p
Page 133 and 134: ● Industry The international geot
Page 135 and 136: Cumulative global geothermal power
Page 137 and 138: Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
Page 139 and 140: The following are areas where R&D c
Page 141 and 142: ● Market Opportunities Market Pot
Page 143 and 144: the simplest form of local distribu
Page 145 and 146: Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
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Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
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CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
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RETScreen International: http://www
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