Technology Status - NET Nowak Energie & Technologie AG

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72 Table 15 Costs for Solar Photovoltaics Current investment costs ● Low investment costs: 4,500 in USD per kW ● High investment costs: 7,000 Expected investment costs ● Low investment costs: 3,000 in USD per kW in 2010 ● High investment costs: 4,500 Current generation costs ● Low cost generation: 18-20 in USD cents per kWh ● High cost generation: 25-80 Expected generation costs ● Low cost generation: 10-15 in USD cents per kWh in 2010 ● High cost generation: 18-40 Source: NET Ltd., Switzerland. Table 16 Key Factors for Solar Photovoltaics Factor Fact Variable influencing energy output ● Global irradiation Limiting factors ● Grid (load) capacity Capacity installed in 2002 in GW ● 2 GW Potential in 2010 in GW ● 11 GW Future potential beyond term year given ● Very high Rule of thumb for conversion ratio* ● 1 kW --> 1,200 - 1,800 kWh per year (installed power to electric output) * Assumptions: solar irradiation 1,200-1,800 kWh / m 2 and year, system efficiency 10%. Source: NET Ltd., Switzerland. Issues for Further Progress ● Technical Issues Feedstock There are no short-term supply limitations, but demand from the PV industry versus world market supply of crystalline silicon may become a short-term SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER X3
issue as production levels increase. Should a bottleneck develop, new production of feedstocks could be brought on line. Solar Cell Technology Manufacturing approaches have diversified recently. A few technologies have entered the industrial stage while many others are still in the pilot manufacturing or even laboratory phase. It is likely that different technologies will continue to co-exist for different applications for some time. Many varieties of materials are being researched, but they are far from the manufacturing stage. An early assessment of production processes, industrial compatibility and costs should be undertaken. Balance of System Both grid-connected and stand-alone applications need better BOS components. A variety of reliable components are available; nevertheless, the efficiency, lifetime and operation of some components can be further improved, especially inverters and batteries. Standardisation and quality assurance are crucial for components as well as for the entire system. Ultimately, BiPV systems should be treated like almost any other building construction component. The Japanese technology development programme has been particularly successful. Some key elements of this programme are given in Table 17. Long-term R&D While cost reduction potential through learning in PV technology, as in other technologies, should lead to major cost reductions over time, they are unlikely to lead to cost competitiveness for on-grid power generation. Longterm R&D needs to focus, therefore, on how to improve solar technologies with new and more cost effective technologies. The time horizon of this R&D effort extends well beyond the 2010 limit of this work’s focus. R&D focused on the long-term is, therefore, of high importance for PV, in particular for the solar cell. Furthermore, to bring new concept cells and modules to production, new manufacturing techniques and large investment is needed. Such developments typically require 5 to 10 years to move from laboratory research to industrial production. Over the next decade, thin film technologies are expected to display their potential for cost reduction and improved performance, and grow to significant shares of the shipped volume. Novel concepts for PV can be found in some of today’s most promising scientific fields, including nanotechnology, organic thin films and molecular 3 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER 73
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY RENEWAB
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY 9, rue
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication d
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8 Prospects for Wind Power 158 Issu
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10 4. Turbine Efficiency Over Time
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewables are th
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Technology and Technological Develo
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Table 1 Focal Points for Policy Int
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Table 2 Ranges of Investment and Ge
Page 23 and 24: Table 3 Current and Forecast Instal
Page 25 and 26: generation. Better power quality re
Page 27: per kWh from plants with proven con
Page 30 and 31: 28 Renewables for Power Generation
Page 32 and 33: 30 ● basic features: characterist
Page 34 and 35: 32 The natural factors which affect
Page 36 and 37: 34 Figure 5 Francis Turbine Source:
Page 38 and 39: 36 ● Costs Investment costs for S
Page 40 and 41: Installation costs [€/kW] 10000 8
Page 42 and 43: Electricity generation cost in USD
Page 44 and 45: ● Market Installed capacity [MW]
Page 46 and 47: 44 Nevertheless, hydropower project
Page 48 and 49: Worldwide hydro production [TWh/yr]
Page 50 and 51: 48 Table 5 Key Factors for SHP Pote
Page 52 and 53: 50 Materials Low-cost materials lik
Page 55 and 56: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER A Brief Hi
Page 57 and 58: to the alternating current (AC) req
Page 59 and 60: from USD 10 to 18 per W. Off-grid s
Page 61 and 62: companies like Sharp, Kyocera and S
Page 63 and 64: sells customised module manufacturi
Page 65 and 66: germane, and toxic metals like cadm
Page 67 and 68: Efficiency [%] 20 15 10 5 0 R&D is
Page 69 and 70: Generation costs in €/kWh 1.1 1 0
Page 71 and 72: This is seen most often in Japan, a
Page 73: System DC/AC unit costs (individual
Page 77: chemistry. Such developments - ulti
Page 80 and 81: 78 delivered to the receiver. The r
Page 82 and 83: 80 ● Thermal Storage Like hybridi
Page 84 and 85: Electricity generation cost USD cen
Page 86 and 87: 84 An example of a CSP industry is
Page 88 and 89: 86 If CSP plants are hybridised wit
Page 90 and 91: 88 reduces the capital cost by 12-1
Page 92 and 93: 90 innovations have influenced all
Page 94 and 95: 92 receiver technology is entering
Page 96 and 97: 94 energy storage) and higher solar
Page 98 and 99: 96 but solar-field maintenance cost
Page 100 and 101: 98 Further cost reductions will be
Page 102 and 103: 100 Global Renewable Energy Resourc
Page 105 and 106: BIOPOWER A Brief History of Biopowe
Page 107 and 108: transport, emissions, etc.) of fast
Page 109 and 110: 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Figure 38 T
Page 111 and 112: ● Swedish forestry harvesting sys
Page 113 and 114: Gross electricty generation in GWh
Page 115 and 116: Specific investement costs in € p
Page 117 and 118: Table 30 Generation Costs for 2-MW
Page 119 and 120: €/MWh 16 12 8 4 0 for reductions
Page 121 and 122: coal at the inlet to the mill, b) f
Page 123 and 124: Table 33 Cost Reduction Opportuniti
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GEOTHERMAL POWER A Brief History of
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eached relatively shallow depths (5
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Capital cost in 1993 USD per kW 300
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An example of a large scale power p
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● Industry The international geot
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Cumulative global geothermal power
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Wastewater: Discharge of wastewater
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The following are areas where R&D c
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● Market Opportunities Market Pot
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the simplest form of local distribu
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Based on country update papers for
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Power Generation Technology Combine
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148 Commercial and technological de
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150 Table 45 Average Investment Cos
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152 Generation Costs Generating cap
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154 Table 47 Top Ten Suppliers, 200
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156 Table 49 Installed Capacity (in
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158 On the positive side, no direct
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DKK (1999)/kWh/Year Productivity 3
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Productivity in kWh per m 2 per yea
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164 before the intermittent nature
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166 The 2 to 3 MW power class will
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168 Grid Integration and Intermitte
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170 Internationally accepted requir
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172 EPRI: Electrical Power Research
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SOURCES AND FURTHER READING Chapter
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European Commission (1997), Energy
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Sellers, R. (1996), PV Diffusion Re
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Morse, F. H. (2000), The Commercial
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Veringa, H. (2001), Biomass Paper,
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CADDET (2001), Renewable Energy New
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WEBSITES Australian Greenhouse offi
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RETScreen International: http://www
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