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20 1 The Problems of Historical Chronology
most any astronomical observation made of scientific nature.
” Historians of science, following Scaliger’s chronology, are
forced to call this situation a “relapse of childhood,” explaining
that the ideas of the flat Earth, which are usually concieved
during the childhood, found thier way to dominate
people’s minds. But these arguments are not convincing. We
have seen how Greek scientists and philosophers were able
to effectively prove that the Earth is spherical, determine its
dimensions, and even, alghough it was not very precise, to
compute the distance from the Earth to the Sun and Moon.
It can hardly be considered as an explanation that new generations
obsessed by religious fanatism attempted to distroy
the rising up knowledge of science because of their relapsing
childhood ideas.
Figure 1.22: Medieval drawing
of Ptolemy
A. Berri provides the following
comments regarding
Scaliger’s history of the astronomical
development:
“About fourteen centuries
elapsed from the proclamation
of the Almagest to the
death of Copernicus (1543)
. . . During that time . . . not
even one astronomical discovery
of primary importance
was made. . . . Theoretical
astronomy barley made some
progress and in some sense
cases suffered retrogression.
In fact, the astronomical
doctrines that were followed
during this epoch are clearly
inferior to the Ptolemy’s
ideas and demonstrate significantly
lower level of
understanding than the astronomical theories used in the
ancient times. As we have seen, in the Western European
astronomy nothing substantial took place during the five
centuries after the death of Ptolemy. After that there was
a rather steady period, and many centuries passed before
we could see a more or less significant revival of interests
in astronomy.” Finally, he concludes that “Regarding the
Europe, the gloomy period following the collapse of the
Roman Empire (apparently in the 6th. century A.D. —
Authors) . . . constitutes constitutes not only a disruption of
history, but also disruption of every branch of science.”
In our opinion these “disruptions,” “periods od silence,”
“dark ages” etc. exist only because historians are using the
incorrect Scaliger version of chronology.
On Figure 1.22 we show a medieval drawing of Ptolemy
who clearly wearing medieval cloths.
1.9 Mathematical and Statistical
Methods for Dating Events of
Ancient History.
There is clearly a need for new and independent scientific
methods to investigate the correctness of Scaliger’s chronology.
In this section we would like to mention some of those
new mathematical and statistical methods that were developed
by A.T. Fomenko with the purpose of examining dependences
between historical texts. Due to its complexity and
large amount of material that was analyzed, it is not possible
here to discuss this topic in details. We will only present a
brief discussion of these methods and describe the most significant
results that were obtained by A.T. Fomenko and G.V.
Nosovsky. We refer all the interested readers to the Fomenko’s
monograph [103] for more details and more information.
Let us point out that the problem of recognizing dependences
and dependent texts (for example the texts with the
same primary source) arise in many branches of applied statistics,
linguistics, physics, genetics, forensics, etc. There are
many various methods used for finding dependences of this
sort. In particular, they are useful in criminal investigations
where they can provide tangible proofs based on the collected
physical evidence that an event occurred. Identifying fingerprints,
bloodstains, fibers, the marks on a bullet, footprints,
various marks on the body and all kinds of even microscopic
traces, require more than just an impression that two patterns
are similar. To determine with high confidence a match
between two patterns is a serious mathematical problem requiring
precise calculations of probabilities.
The existence of strange “repetitions” in chronology was
already known for a long time, since N.A. Morozov identified
several similarities between the so-called dynasty functions.
In order to be able to present a solid proof that these similarities
are not coincidental and that they in fact indicate a
historical “mistake” of misinterpretation of historical documents,
it is necessary to analyze them statistically exactly in
the same way as it is done regarding the physical evidence
in a criminal investigation. The method suggested by A.T.
Fomenko is based on empirico-statistical procedures that can
extremely useful not only in analyzing narrative texts such as
historical chronicles, but in other areas of sciences, for example
in studying biological codes.
Let us explain more clearly how the historical material,
such as chronicles, can be analyzed using mathematical methods?
For example, it is possible to extract all kinds of numerical
information from these documents. Suppose we are
analyzing a text X — a historical chronicle. We can create a
sequence of integers representing the number of words used in
the chronicle to describe events in subsequent years. If T denotes
the year T , then the value X(T )) would be the number
of words in the chapter describing the year T , which would
be here the volume of a fragment corresponding to the year