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Ethnic Hostility among Ethnic Majority and Minority Groups

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8. Conclusion | Questions, results <strong>and</strong> conclusions of Part 2<br />

were class-based <strong>and</strong> sex-based educational differentials have been diminishing, educational<br />

inequality is not generally declining between non-Western minority groups <strong>and</strong> the native Dutch.<br />

Clearly, we have to refute the hypotheses derived from the modernisation proposition; ethnic<br />

educational inequality did not decrease at all levels <strong>and</strong> all tracks. But is modernisation theory<br />

wrong? 4 Is a selection process based on ethnicity economically ineffi cient within educational<br />

institutions? Not if it is harder to judge the achievements <strong>and</strong> potential of minorities <strong>and</strong> there<br />

are suffi cient other perfect (or suitable) c<strong>and</strong>idates without an ethnic minority background for the<br />

same position to choose from. And are selection criteria based on ethnicity (morally) sanctioned,<br />

not only de jure but also de facto? These are questions that need to be addressed in the future.<br />

In Chapter 5, I also showed that trends in ethnic educational inequality differ profoundly<br />

between ethnic groups. This illustrates the importance of a multi-ethnic group perspective. Based<br />

on my results it is not to be expected that inequality <strong>among</strong> second generation ethnic minorities<br />

<strong>and</strong> native Dutch will disappear at the secondary <strong>and</strong> tertiary educational levels for successive<br />

birth cohorts. Third generation ethnic minorities are now starting to attend school. Whether<br />

the third generation is going to perform better or worse than their second <strong>and</strong> fi rst generation<br />

counterparts remains to be seen. My results should temper the optimism of those who expect<br />

ethnic differences to dissolve for later generations or in due time.<br />

Even under a condition of saturation, the ethnic inequality in transition rates from<br />

secondary education to tertiary education did not diminish. This is a puzzling fi nding <strong>and</strong> needs<br />

further research attention. The detailed description of patterns of association between attained<br />

educational level <strong>and</strong> ethnicity also showed that ethnic inequality <strong>and</strong> cohort trends in it take<br />

different forms across vocational <strong>and</strong> general educational tracks of the same level. In line with<br />

the Effectively Maintained Inequality proposition, inequality is established qualitatively within<br />

tertiary education.<br />

Chapter 5 raised the question of how decisions of individual students contribute to the<br />

ethnic inequality observed. This question led to the study described in Chapter 6.<br />

8.2.2 Explanations for <strong>Ethnic</strong> Educational Inequality<br />

Research questions of Chapter 6<br />

Chapter 6 investigated how ethnicity affects the decision for a specifi c track in higher education.<br />

Building on the results of Chapter 5, I took the qualitatively differentiated structure of the Dutch<br />

educational system in general university tracks <strong>and</strong> vocational tracks of professional colleges into<br />

account. I also took into account that tracks, at both university <strong>and</strong> professional college, differ<br />

in study fi elds.<br />

My point of departure was the Breen-Goldthorpe model. According to this model,<br />

students’ transition decisions are based on the expected direct <strong>and</strong> indirect costs associated with<br />

each transition choice, on their subjective beliefs about the utility of educational outcomes, <strong>and</strong><br />

on subjective beliefs about the likelihood of success in the different available track options. The<br />

beliefs of expected future academic success are likely to be infl uenced by factors other than ability,<br />

such as knowledge of the schooling system <strong>and</strong> preferred study effort. If students with the same<br />

demonstrated ability but with different ethnic backgrounds have different expectations of future<br />

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