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Ethnic Hostility among Ethnic Majority and Minority Groups

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8. Conclusion | Theoretical implications for <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory <strong>and</strong> Contact Theory: new questions<br />

This is of course not to say that there will always be a trend towards more ethnic hostility<br />

within society; there are other factors infl uencing such hostility (e.g. educational attainment,<br />

religiosity). Moreover, I just discussed results showing that acculturation to less hostile attitudes<br />

is easier than acculturation to more hostile attitudes, as long as the dominant social norm is<br />

one of social tolerance. Thus, in societies with a culture of tolerance there may very well be two<br />

counteracting self-strengthening mechanisms.<br />

Theoretical implications from Chapters 3 <strong>and</strong> 4<br />

There was an important inconsistency between the results of Chapters 3 <strong>and</strong> 4, which I have not<br />

mentioned before explicitly. In Chapter 3, I found that for native Dutch with an educational degree<br />

below average, the size of the outgroup in the neighbourhood was positively related to opposition<br />

to ethnic intermarriage, in line with <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory. For the relatively higher educated<br />

this relationship was reversed, as could be expected given selective residential mobility. In sharp<br />

contrast, in Chapter 4 I found that for native Dutch the size of the outgroup is negatively related<br />

to rejection of neighbours from a different race, as would be expected on the basis of Contact<br />

Theory, but this negative relationship was weaker (not stronger) for the relative rich. 7<br />

The two datasets used in Chapters 3 <strong>and</strong> 4 were collected after different sample<br />

selection procedures. The dataset used in Chapter 4, CV04, contained an oversampling of ‘bad<br />

neighbourhoods’, <strong>and</strong> compared to the dataset of Chapter 3, NKPS02, has far more respondents<br />

living in neighbourhoods with a substantial proportion of ethnic minorities. Hence, within the<br />

CV04, the actual relationship between outgroup size <strong>and</strong> ethnic hostility within neighbourhoods<br />

with relatively high proportions of ethnic minorities has more infl uence on the estimated effect of<br />

outgroup size on indicators of ethnic hostility than within the NKPS02. I now expect the following<br />

hypotheses to hold:<br />

1a. When outgroup sizes start to increase (beginning with zero per cent), outgroup sizes within<br />

neighbourhoods will decrease levels of ethnic hostility for the rich <strong>and</strong> higher educated. 1b.<br />

After a certain threshold, outgroup sizes will start to reinforce ethnic hostility for the rich <strong>and</strong><br />

higher educated.<br />

2a. When outgroup sizes start to increase (beginning with zero per cent), outgroup sizes within<br />

neighbourhoods will increase levels of ethnic hostility for the poor <strong>and</strong> lower educated. 2b.<br />

After a certain threshold, outgroup sizes will start to diminish ethnic hostility for the poor <strong>and</strong><br />

low educated.<br />

Of course, these hypotheses have been induced from my results <strong>and</strong> not been theoretically<br />

deduced. This is because the relevant theories, <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory <strong>and</strong> Contact Theory,<br />

are simplifi cations of reality <strong>and</strong> do not take into account possible relevant conditional nonlinear<br />

relationships. A possible reason for this omission is that to theoretically deduce hypotheses – which<br />

I strongly adhere to – without formalised theoretical models is far more diffi cult with (conditional)<br />

nonlinear relationships. We thus need to formalise our theoretical frameworks. A nice example of a<br />

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