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Ethnic Hostility among Ethnic Majority and Minority Groups

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ethnic hosting<br />

threat<br />

contact / residential mobility<br />

8. Conclusion | Theoretical implications for <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory <strong>and</strong> Contact Theory: new questions<br />

outgroup size<br />

threat<br />

Figure 8.1. Conditional curvilinear effects of outgroup size on ethnic hostility<br />

contact / residential mobility<br />

<strong>Hostility</strong> reduction as a result of positive contact experiences, ethnic hostility formation<br />

due to perceptions of threat, <strong>and</strong> selective residential mobility only constitute a part of my<br />

explanation for the relationship between outgroup sizes within the locality <strong>and</strong> level of ethnic<br />

hostility. Considered on their own, Contact Theory <strong>and</strong> <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory would lead to<br />

contradictory hypotheses regarding the impact of ethnic outgroup sizes within the locality. To<br />

deduce contradictory hypotheses from established theoretical frameworks is something to strive<br />

for, since they commonly pinpoint where something in our underst<strong>and</strong>ing <strong>and</strong> our theories has<br />

gone awry. Empirically testing contradictory hypotheses normally shows us which theory is wrong<br />

<strong>and</strong> which one is right (or more wrong/right than the other). However, neither <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition<br />

Theory nor Contact Theory is wrong – ‘just’ underspecifi ed. Perceptions of threat will lead to<br />

more ethnic hostility, all else being equal. And under ceteris paribus conditions, positive contact<br />

experiences will lead to a reduction in ethnic hostility. Of course the problem is that larger<br />

outgroup sizes within the locality both induce perceptions of threat <strong>and</strong> increase the likelihood of<br />

positive contact experiences. Statements like ‘the more A the more B the more C’ should be made<br />

more informative (cf. Ultee, 1974): to what extent do larger outgroup sizes lead to perceptions of<br />

ethnic threat <strong>and</strong> positive contact experiences?, <strong>and</strong> to what extent do perceptions of threat <strong>and</strong><br />

positive contact experience increase or decrease ethnic hostility?<br />

Moreover, I argue that <strong>Ethnic</strong> Competition Theory <strong>and</strong> Contact Theory cannot be<br />

considered on their own, since levels of threat cannot be held constant with changing levels<br />

of contact experiences <strong>and</strong> vice versa; perceived threat <strong>and</strong> contact experiences affect one<br />

poor<br />

rich<br />

191

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