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Docetaxel with prednisone or prednisolone for the treatment of ...

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TABLE 21 Summary <strong>of</strong> submission by San<strong>of</strong>i-Aventis<br />

Auth<strong>or</strong> San<strong>of</strong>i-Aventis 61<br />

A Weibull model was applied to <strong>the</strong> survival data<br />

based on a visual check <strong>of</strong> a plot <strong>of</strong> log<br />

(cumulative hazard) against log (time). A Weibull<br />

model is used in situations in which <strong>the</strong><br />

assumption <strong>of</strong> a constant hazard <strong>with</strong> respect to<br />

time is not appropriate (i.e. <strong>the</strong> risk <strong>of</strong> m<strong>or</strong>tality is<br />

increasing/decreasing). Survival analysis was<br />

undertaken using PROC LIFEREG in SAS (v9.1).<br />

The mean survival was estimated from <strong>the</strong> output<br />

parameters (intercept and scale) using <strong>the</strong><br />

following equation:<br />

© Queen’s Printer and Controller <strong>of</strong> HMSO 2007. All rights reserved.<br />

Health Technology Assessment 2007; Vol. 11: No. 2<br />

Date 2005<br />

Type <strong>of</strong> economic evaluation Cost-effectiveness<br />

Study classification Patient-level data<br />

I. Prospective resource use and patient outcome data (type A: RCT)<br />

Currency used UK £<br />

Year to which costs apply A unique price year was not given<br />

Perspective used UK NHS<br />

Timeframe Within trial analysis and extrapolation to lifetime (survival only)<br />

Comparat<strong>or</strong>s 1. <strong>Docetaxel</strong> 75 mg/m2 plus <strong>prednisone</strong> (every 3 weeks)<br />

2. Mitoxantrone 12 mg/m 2 plus <strong>prednisone</strong> (every 3 weeks)<br />

Source(s) <strong>of</strong> effectiveness data TAX 327<br />

Source(s) <strong>of</strong> resource use data TAX 327<br />

Source(s) <strong>of</strong> unit cost data Not stated<br />

Modelling approach used Analysis based on patient-level survival and resource use data from TAX 327.<br />

Separate analyses conducted f<strong>or</strong> <strong>with</strong>in-trial analysis and lifetime h<strong>or</strong>izon using<br />

parametric survival analysis (Weibull distribution) to extrapolate survival data<br />

Summary <strong>of</strong> effectiveness results Median survival from Kaplan–Meier:<br />

<strong>Docetaxel</strong> plus <strong>prednisone</strong> = 18.9 months<br />

Mitoxantrone plus <strong>prednisone</strong> = 16.5 months<br />

Difference = 2.4 months<br />

Mean survival based on extrapolation using parametric survival model using Weibull<br />

distribution (95% CI):<br />

<strong>Docetaxel</strong> = 22.38 (20.38 to 24.62) months<br />

Mitoxantrone = 18.65 (17.30 to 20.12) months<br />

Difference = 3.73 months<br />

Summary <strong>of</strong> cost results Total per patient cost was estimated at £15,767 f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel plus <strong>prednisone</strong><br />

(comprising £8329 f<strong>or</strong> first-line chemo<strong>the</strong>rapy and £7438 f<strong>or</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>rapy) and<br />

£9711 f<strong>or</strong> mitoxantrone plus <strong>prednisone</strong> (comprising £1695 f<strong>or</strong> first-line<br />

chemo<strong>the</strong>rapy and £8016 f<strong>or</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>rapy)<br />

Summary <strong>of</strong> cost-effectiveness results The incremental cost per life-year gained f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel was £30,280 based on<br />

median survival data. Using mean survival, estimated using parametric survival<br />

methods, <strong>the</strong> incremental cost per life-year gained f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel was rep<strong>or</strong>ted to<br />

be £19,483<br />

Sensitivity analysis One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying <strong>the</strong> mean survival<br />

difference based on <strong>the</strong> lower and upper bounds estimated f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel plus<br />

<strong>prednisone</strong>. The ICER ranged from £12,173 to £42,007 per life-year gained<br />

mean survival = exp(intercept) × Γ(1 + scale<br />

parameter)<br />

Table 22 provides a comparison <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> alternative<br />

analyses based on <strong>the</strong> different approaches. The<br />

results demonstrate that <strong>the</strong> <strong>with</strong>in-trial analysis,<br />

based on median survival (based on <strong>the</strong><br />

Kaplan–Meier analysis), results in a m<strong>or</strong>e<br />

conservative estimate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> difference between<br />

<strong>the</strong> interventions (2.4 months) compared <strong>with</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

estimate based on mean survival (3.73 months).<br />

47

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