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62<br />

Economic model<br />

TABLE 36 Follow-up costs f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel regimens<br />

<strong>Docetaxel</strong> regimen Mean (£) SE (£) Distribution <br />

Terminal care cost 3527.95 1763.98 Gamma 4.00 881.99<br />

6–10 months 1551.29 775.65 Gamma 4.00 387.82<br />

10–14 months 718.40 359.20 Gamma 4.00 179.60<br />

14–18 months 1461.49 730.75 Gamma 4.00 365.37<br />

18–22 months 7616.34 3808.17 Gamma 4.00 1904.09<br />

22–26 months 6674.97 3337.49 Gamma 4.00 1668.74<br />

>26 months 4827.96 2413.98 Gamma 4.00 1206.99<br />

TABLE 37 Follow-up costs f<strong>or</strong> mitoxantrone regimens<br />

Mitoxantrone regimen Mean (£) SE (£) Distribution <br />

Terminal care cost 3,942.16 1,971.08 Gamma 4.00 985.54<br />

6–10 months 3,080.91 1,540.46 Gamma 4.00 770.23<br />

10–14 months 1,753.84 876.92 Gamma 4.00 438.46<br />

14–18 months 4,779.66 2,389.83 Gamma 4.00 1,194.92<br />

18–22 months 3,286.83 1,643.42 Gamma 4.00 821.71<br />

22–26 months 8,079.19 4,039.60 Gamma 4.00 2,019.80<br />

>26 months 12,679.52 6,339.76 Gamma 4.00 3,169.88<br />

we assigned a one-<strong>of</strong>f cost to <strong>the</strong> transition to <strong>the</strong><br />

dead state. In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> data on <strong>the</strong>se<br />

additional costs we estimated <strong>the</strong>m from those<br />

patients who died <strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> first 6 months, as<br />

rep<strong>or</strong>ted by San<strong>of</strong>i-Aventis. This terminal care<br />

component was <strong>the</strong>n subtracted from <strong>the</strong> total<br />

follow-up costs associated <strong>with</strong> each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

periods. In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> specific patient-level<br />

inf<strong>or</strong>mation detailing costs per monthly cycle, all<br />

follow-up costs were assigned as patients died<br />

(cycle). F<strong>or</strong> <strong>the</strong> purposes <strong>of</strong> discounting, terminal<br />

care costs were discounted at <strong>the</strong> rate f<strong>or</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

appropriate cycle and o<strong>the</strong>r follow-up costs were<br />

discounted based on <strong>the</strong> mid-point <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> followup<br />

period rep<strong>or</strong>ted.<br />

Additional inf<strong>or</strong>mation was requested to quantify<br />

<strong>the</strong> sample uncertainty in <strong>the</strong>se estimates;<br />

however, this inf<strong>or</strong>mation could not be provided.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se data, we made <strong>the</strong><br />

assumption that <strong>the</strong> standard err<strong>or</strong> was equal to<br />

half <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mean value (i.e. <strong>the</strong> coefficient <strong>of</strong><br />

variation was 0.5) as suggested by Briggs and<br />

colleagues. 70 A gamma distribution was assigned<br />

to each follow-up period using <strong>the</strong> methods <strong>of</strong><br />

moments approach. 70<br />

In <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> specific patient-level inf<strong>or</strong>mation<br />

detailing costs f<strong>or</strong> each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>treatment</strong>s<br />

considered in analysis 2, we made <strong>the</strong> following<br />

assumptions. The follow-up costs f<strong>or</strong> docetaxel<br />

plus <strong>prednisone</strong>/<strong>prednisolone</strong> 3-weekly [D + P<br />

(3-weekly)] were used as <strong>the</strong> basis f<strong>or</strong> <strong>the</strong> follow-up<br />

costs f<strong>or</strong> all regimens inc<strong>or</strong>p<strong>or</strong>ating docetaxel.<br />

Hence <strong>the</strong> only differences assumed in <strong>the</strong> costs<br />

modelled f<strong>or</strong> <strong>the</strong>se <strong>treatment</strong>s were those due to<br />

differences in acquisition costs and in overall<br />

survival. A similar approach was used to model <strong>the</strong><br />

costs <strong>of</strong> M + P + C based upon <strong>the</strong> follow-up costs<br />

rep<strong>or</strong>ted f<strong>or</strong> mitoxantrone and <strong>prednisone</strong>.<br />

Tables 36 and 37 rep<strong>or</strong>t <strong>the</strong> follow-up costs applied<br />

to <strong>the</strong> models and <strong>the</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

associated gamma distributions.<br />

No data were provided <strong>with</strong>in <strong>the</strong> company<br />

submission regarding <strong>the</strong> potential follow-up costs<br />

associated <strong>with</strong> non-chemo<strong>the</strong>rapy regimens (i.e.<br />

<strong>prednisone</strong>/<strong>prednisolone</strong> alone). However, as<br />

detailed previously in <strong>the</strong> review <strong>of</strong> published costeffectiveness<br />

analyses, Bloomfield and colleagues 64<br />

rep<strong>or</strong>ted <strong>the</strong> results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> costs and outcomes f<strong>or</strong> a<br />

comparison <strong>of</strong> M + P versus P. This study was used<br />

to estimate <strong>the</strong> costs <strong>of</strong> P on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> an<br />

adjustment to <strong>the</strong> costs <strong>of</strong> M + P. We requested<br />

additional patient-level data from one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

auth<strong>or</strong>s <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Bloomfield study (Willan A,<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Public Health Sciences, University<br />

<strong>of</strong> T<strong>or</strong>onto; personal communication, 2005). On <strong>the</strong><br />

basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> data provided, an adjustment was made<br />

based on <strong>the</strong> relative differences in <strong>the</strong> follow-up<br />

costs between M + P and P. Costs were converted<br />

from Canadian dollars to pounds sterling using <strong>the</strong><br />

appropriate exchange rate based on <strong>the</strong> price year<br />

used in <strong>the</strong> Bloomfield study. Gamma distributions

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