Mediterranean Action Plan

12
ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN
4. Regional framework: economic issues
Economic and financial questions linked to the development of renewable energies and
action in favour of energy efficiency, as well as the effects of trials connected to this were
discussed in the second session of the Monaco workshop.
This session also aimed at discussing the financial aspect, often brought forward as an
explanation for the slow development of RE and EE.
The initial results of two regional studies were presented. One was an assessment of the
cost of non action in favour of renewable energies and energy efficiency (application to
Morocco’s case). The other was on the taking into account of renewable energies and
energy efficiency in official development assistance (international aid) for the Mediterranean.
The question of financing RE and EE was also brought forward in a contribution on « carbon
credits » and the using of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in the Mediterranean to
incite private foreign direct investments in technologies with few greenhouse gas emissions.
Finally, spin-off from trials with solar energy water heaters on the Tunisian economy was also
presented (example cited in le & 6.1).
4.1 The economic cos t o f non - action conc erning RE and EE
This study is aimed at showing the short term economic interest (5 to 10 years) of the
countries to committing themselves to reaching the regional objectives of MSSD. The macroeconomic
effects of various energy strategies were analysed by putting them in the context
of the main economic constraints of the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries
including employment (and, therefore, growth), the budget equilibrium and the balance of
payments. With this in mind, a simulation tool was put in place in the framework of the study
and applied to the situation in Morocco. Simulations were carried out and an assessment of
the amount of the energy bill was estimated according to the various energy strategies
(including the development of RE and EE).
In each of the simulations, the objective was to compare the total cost if ambitious RE and
EE strategies are set up with the total cost if current trends continue. This helps to give an
answer to questions of the type « how much will the gain be in millions of US dollars from
action to improve energy efficiency by 1% per annum over 10 years? This gain could also be
referred to as « cost of a non action », i.e. the cost of the non-integration of EE action. The
interest of this type of exercise also resides in the fact that the gain can be compared to the
costs of the measures to be taken to get there.
Several simulations were made for Morocco for the period 2005-2015 and presented during
the Monaco workshop.
The initial results demonstrate that the most important potential economic gain would be in
energy efficiency improvement for households and in transport. Identical improvement in
energy efficiency in industries would also give interesting results: they would be about 511
millions US dollars for the last three years of the period under consideration, i.e. 2013-2015.
This amount is comparable to that of the compensation fund in Morocco {compensation of
the differential of the international energy prices (petrol-related products) compared to the
domestic price} for 2007 i.e. about 700 million US dollars, all things being equal. This budget
is a heavy burden for government spending, as many press items explain regularly.
Scenarios bringing the loss rate down (production and distribution) from 16 to 10% and
integrating a higher input of renewable energies would give a lower potential saving.
Thus, the first calculated results estimated for Morocco show that there could be a big
financial potential by integrating RE and EE in the countries. The discussions confirmed the
importance of presenting the expected benefits from renewable energy and energy efficiency
action in monetary values and, therefore, to continue this work.