Mediterranean Action Plan

EGYPT - National study
1.3.3 Evolution and Structure of the Energy Production
Evolution of primary energy production
Table 9 shows the evolution of primary energy production during the last 25 years from
1981/82 to 2004/05. Total production increased from 36.99 mtoe to 64.98 mtoe with an
average annual growth rate of 2.26%. Oil production only increased by a very small average
annual growth rate of 0.13%, while natural gas increased by a high growth rate of 11.4%.
These figures are less than the same annual growth rates of primary energy consumption
table (1.5) which are 4.64%, 3.34%, and 13% for total primary energy consumption, oil
consumption, and NG consumption consequently. Furthermore, the share of crude oil in total
primary energy production decreased from 88.02% to 51.85% and that for NG increased
from 5.22% to 43.65%.
This structure of primary energy production will completely change if one would make the
previous analysis for the last 15 years from 1991/92 to 2004/05. The most important
parameter during this period is the declining trend of crude oil production with an average
annual rate of 2%, while the total primary energy production has increased by an average
annual rate of 1.1%. If these figures are compared to primary energy demand during the
same period crude oil demand has increased by 2.7% and total primary energy demand has
increased by 4.5%. This particular situation of declining oil production compared to the
growing demand for oil products will be discussed later in item 1.3 of this report.
Energy
source
Table 9 Evolution of primary energy production by source of energy (mtoe)
81/82 91/92 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 Av.
G. R.
(%)
Oil++ 32.56 45.43 46.27 44.36 43.05 42.29 40.24 37.07 36.36 35.79 35.31 33.69 0.13
% of
total 88.02 82.24 76.93 75.76 74.77 71.79 67.40 61.24 55.21 57.38 54.73 51.85
NG 1.93 7.16 11.30 11.50 11.78 13.19 16.19 20.39 26.15 23.69 26.24 28.36 11.4
% of
total 5.22 12.96 18.78 19.64 20.46 22.39 27.12 33.69 39.70 37.99 40.67 43.65
Hydro- 2.50 2.65
0.4
power
% of
2.55 2.63 2.68 3.37 3.24 3.00 3.28 2.82 2.86 2.78
total 6.76 4.80 4.25 4.49 4.66 5.71 5.43 4.95 4.98 4.52 4.44 4.28
RE
% of
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.12 NA
total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.07 0.13 0.18
Coal 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 NA
% of
0.00
total 0.00
0.04 0.11 0.12 0.11 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
Total 36.99 55.24 60.14 58.56 57.58 58.91 59.70 60.53 65.86 62.38 64.52 64.98 2.26
G. R.: Growth Rate; Oil++: crude oil + condensate + LPG; RE includes wind energy resource only
Source: Organization for energy planning, reports for different years.
RE has only a modest share in primary energy production of 0.18% in the year 2004/05.
Wind energy electricity production is the sole measurable and/or documented output of
renewable energy resources that could be taken into consideration. The other important
resource is solar water heaters energy production which is neither monitored nor well
documented.
Two reviewed available studies have elaborated the trends and the forecast for primary
energy production, particularly crude oil and natural gas. In fact, this is a delicate and
complicated issue depending on accuracy of historical data and relevance of future scenarios
assumptions. The results are quite indicative concerning the growth (or decline) rates of
proven reserves and related possible production capacities.
The following forecasted reserves and production estimates are based on the work
presented in a study prepared by the Organization for Energy Planning (OEP) and other
institutions of which we have selected the most probable scenario of GDP annual growth rate
of 5%. Egypt will consume the crude oil forecasted total production including the share of
foreign partners as per the two following cases:
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