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The economics of Bauxite, 7 th edition 2008
Chinese production of alumina,
driven by rapidly expanding demand
for aluminium, grew at an
average rate of 22% a year between
1998 and 2007, and by 42% in 2007
alone. The demand for bauxite that
this expansion generated was met
by a rapid opportunistic increase in
Indonesian bauxite output, resulting
in Chinese imports from Indonesia
rising from 832 kt in 2004 to 15.4m
tonnes in 2007. This rate of imports
continued into 2008 with China importing
8.8m tonnes in the first four
months of the year, 4.8m tonnes of
which came from Indonesia.
With some 25m tpy of new alumina
capacity planned in China in the
next two to three years, demand for
bauxite, much of which will have
to be imported, will continue to
rise. It is not clear if the Indonesian
bauxite mining industry will be able
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to support Chinese demand in the
long term, and higher priced imports
from India are also growing rapidly.
The Chinese alumina industry is
also looking to Australia as a source
of bauxite. Chalco, China’s largest
alumina producer, is investing in the
7.5m tpy Aurukun project in northern
Queensland.
Guinea in West Africa, having the
world’s largest bauxite resources,
would appear to be well placed to
meet rising global demand for bauxite.
Lack of infrastructure coupled
with political and economic instability,
however, appear to be hampering
the development of Guinea’s
bauxite resources, although some
major long term projects are in existence
and appear to be proceeding.
The bauxite and alumina industries
in Australia and Brazil are growing
rapidly with some 16m tpy of new
bauxite capacity planned in both
countries, and 6m tpy of new alumina
capacity planned in Australia and
13m tpy in Brazil.
what the report gives you
• Independent, in-depth research
and analysis
• Essential market intelligence for
successful business planning
• Detailed survey of production and
processing in over 50 countries
• Up-to-date profiles of the activities
of over 130 producing and
processing companies and their
activities
• Forecasts for end-use consumption
and world supply and demand
report highlights
The corporate structure of the world’s
bauxite and alumina industry has undergone
significant consolidation in
recent years, with Rio Tinto’s take
over of Alcan (in 2007), and Rusal’s
takeover of Sual and the bauxite and
alumina interests of Glencore (in
2006). The new entities, Rio Tinto
Alcan and UC Rusal are respectively
the world’s largest and fourth largest
producers of bauxite, and the fourth
largest and largest producers of alumina.
The prospective acquisition of
Rio Tinto Alcan by BHP Billiton, if it
goes ahead, would create the world’s
largest producer of both bauxite and
alumina by a considerable margin.
About 72m tonnes of alumina were
used in primary aluminium production
in 2007. Industry analysts are
forecasting that aluminium demand
will grow at a rate of 5.5% a year between
2007 and 2015. In a five-year
time frame, this would result in primary
aluminium production of about
n Rolling mills cold/hot
n Roll grinding machines
n Continuous casters
n Levellers/straighteners
n Drawing machines
50m tonnes in 2012, which would
require some 95m tonnes of alumina.
Demand for non-metallurgical
bauxite is expected to grow at an annual
average rate of 2.1% to reach
about 8.3m tpy by 2012, whereas
that for non-metallurgical alumina
and ATH will grow at faster rates of
3.7% and 3.9% a year respectively,
resulting in markets of 4.8m and
4.6m tpy. Proppants are expected
to show fastest growth rates for
bauxite, while aluminium fluoride,
refractories and cement will be the
fastest growing markets for alumina
and ATH.
World trade in bauxite almost
doubled (increasing from 20% to
30% of consumption) over the period
2002 to 2007 to exceed 60m
tonnes in 2007, largely because of
substantial increases in Chinese
imports mainly from Indonesia. The
bulk of world trade in bauxite is accounted
for by exports from Guinea,
Indonesia, Australia, India and Brazil
and imports into China, the USA,
Ukraine, Ireland and Spain.
With production capacity for
both smelter grade and non-metallurgical
alumina increasing, prices
are expected to show more stability
in the future, and may come off the
highs seen in mid 2008. The opposite
may happen with bauxite reflecting
a potential deficit.
The Economics of Bauxite, 7 th edition,
published 28 August 2008,
370 pages, 202 tables, 79 figures,
ISBN 978 0 86214 552 1. Available
at £2,400; €4,000; USD5,000, from
Roskill Information Services Ltd,
London, Tel: +44 20 8944 0066,
info@roskill.co.uk
We purchase and supply:
n Slitting lines
n Cut-to-length lines
n Coilers
n Coil carriages
n Rollformers
n Tube welding machines
n Extrusion presses
n Joining presses
n Packing lines for strips
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Phone +49 (0) 2734/271190 · Fax +49 (0) 2734/271195
www.coiltec.de · email: info@coiltec.de
ALUMINIUM · 11/2008
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