14th ICID - Poster Abstracts - International Society for Infectious ...

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When citing these abstracts please use the following reference: Author(s) of abstract. Title of abstract [abstract]. Int J Infect Dis 2010;14S1: Abstract number. Please note that the official publication of the International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2010, Volume 14, Supplement 1 is available electronically on http://www.sciencedirect.com Final Abstract Number: 81.004 Session: Public Health Interventions, Modeling & Training Date: Friday, March 12, 2010 Time: 12:30-13:30 Room: Poster & Exhibition Area/Ground Level Type: Poster Presentation Models and data for determining transmission routes J. Koopman University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA Background: Multiple modes of transmission are possible for respiratory infections. For example influenza might be spread via small droplet aerosols that get down into the lungs, airborne medium size droplets that settle on upper airway mucosa, or large droplets that might travel directly between individuals or contaminate hands or fomites that carry infectious agent to a new host. Methodology to study the frequency of different transmission modes and the role that they play in amplifying or disseminating transmission throughout populations has been lacking. Methods: Environmental Infection Transmission System Models were formulated that range from highly abstract to highly detailed. These models follow the infectious agent out of one person, through the environment, to another individual, and then through the immune elements that could eliminate them until they start an infection. These models are analyzed mathematically and numerically. Then they are run with different hypothetical types of data in order to determine what types of data would be most helpful in determining what modes of transmission are acting in the real world. Results: The abstract models show that different modes of transmission will be expected to have different relationships that constrain the number of individuals that can be infected via that mode. The more detailed models show that for influenza, different routes of transmission will dominate under different conditions. The framework for determining infection mode from real world data involves relating a hierarchy of data types to a hierarchy of model types in a manner that assesses the robustness of inferences about modes of transmission to realistically relaxing extreme simplifying assumptions in the models and then finding a reasonable data set that can estimate model parameters. Conclusion: Data from a single venue on who gets infected given different levels of environmental contamination and their exposure to that contamination will be very difficult to gather in a manner that allows for definitive conclusions about transmission mode. Data on genetic variation patterns of pathogens in different environments where different modes of transmission might dominate could be more productive.
When citing these abstracts please use the following reference: Author(s) of abstract. Title of abstract [abstract]. Int J Infect Dis 2010;14S1: Abstract number. Please note that the official publication of the International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2010, Volume 14, Supplement 1 is available electronically on http://www.sciencedirect.com Final Abstract Number: 81.005 Session: Public Health Interventions, Modeling & Training Date: Friday, March 12, 2010 Time: 12:30-13:30 Room: Poster & Exhibition Area/Ground Level Type: Poster Presentation Epidemiological transition in Venezuela: Relationships between infectious diarrheas, ischemic heart diseases and transportation accidents mortalities and the human development index (HDI) in Venezuela, 2005-2007 A. Rísquez Parra, L. Echezuria, A. Rodriguez-Morales Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, Venezuela Background: The objective of this study is to describe potential relationships between the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components and the mortality due to infectious diarrheas (ID), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) and transportation accidents (TA) in the 23 States and DC of Venezuela between 2005-2007 as a reflect of epidemiological transition in the country. Methods: Socioeconomical data (classified according the WB) was obtained from the National Institute of Statistics, including the HDI and its components life expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living, and GDP per capita; and the epidemiological data (mean rates) from the Ministry of Health, both from Venezuela. For the analysis regression models were done. Results: The HDI varied in the states from 0.710689-0.865577. ID mortality disparity ranges from rate of 1.55-49.62 deaths/100,000pop; IHD mortality from 14.77-97.78 deaths/100,000pop; and TA mortality from 12.63-47.05 deaths/100,000pop. Linear regression models evidenced that the relationship between epidemiological and social variables and HDI was negative for ID, positive for IHD and neutral for TA. Those states with higher HDI and its components had lower ID mortality rates (r2=0.2341;p
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