Participation and Democracy: Dynamics, Causes ... - Jacobs University

that someone will participate in elite-challenging activities. These odds (or chances) are
defined as P/(1-P), i.e. the probability (that someone participates, so ‘an event will
occur’) divided by one minus the probability (that someone does not participate, so ‘an
event will not occur’). The β 0i coefficient is the individual-level intercept, the other beta
coefficients in the model are the individual-level effects (slopes). Finally, r ij represents
the error term in this model.
The main goal of a multilevel analysis is “to account for variance in a dependent variable
that is measured at the lowest level of analysis by considering information from all levels
of analysis” (Steenbergen and Jones 2002: 219). The information from the subordinate
level, the societal level, is taken into account in the next two steps. Here, it is assumed
that level-2 variables can have direct effects (Model 2) but may also mediate the effects
of level-1 predictors (Model 3).
In the second step of analyzing multilevel data, level-2 variables are introduced to
estimate their independent effects on the individual-level intercept β 0j . In Model 2, the
level-2 variables are (1) Voice and Accountability, (2) Democracy Stock, (3) GDP per
capita, (4) Tertiarization, (5) Inequality, (6) Happiness level, and (7) Parliamentary
system. The variable Electoral system (Proportional system) was excluded from analysis,
as the predictor did not have a significant effect on the level of elite-challenging
participation (see T-test in Table 8-3a) and was insignificant even when introduced as the
only predictor for individual-level participation in the multilevel model. The model for
the context factors looks as follows:
Model 2:
β 0j = γ 00 + γ 01 (Voice and Accountability j ) + γ 02 (Democracy Stock j ) +
γ 03 (GDP per capita j ) + γ 04 (Tertiarization j ) + γ 05 (Inequality j ) + γ 06 (Happiness level j) +
γ 07 (Parliamentary system j ) + u ij .
In the equation, γ 00 is the societal level intercept, the other γ coefficients are level-2
effects on the level-1 intercept β 0j . The level-2 error term is summarized in u ij .
With eight individual-level and seven context factors, the problem of multicollinearity
must be addressed before we begin with the statistical analysis. Multicollinearity is a
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