Draft EIS/EIR for the San Luis Reservoir SRA Resource ...

5. Environmental Analysis
− Violate any air quality standard or contribute substantially to an
existing or projected air quality violation;
− Result in a cumulatively considerable net increase of any criteria air
pollutant for which the project region is nonattainment under an
applicable federal or state ambient air quality standard (including
releasing emissions that exceed quantitative thresholds for ozone
precursors);
− Expose sensitive receptors to substantial pollutant concentrations; or
- Create objectionable odors affecting a substantial number of people.
5.4.2.3 Environmental Evaluation
Criteria Pollutant Emissions from Motorized Vehicles and Vessels Vehicle
and motorized watercraft emissions include ozone precursors, carbon monoxide,
nitrogen and sulfur oxides, and particulate matter. These emissions have the
potential to affect local and regional air quality. The action alternatives would
support increased visitor use, associated vehicle travel, and motorized watercraft
use, as well as construct visitor, operations, and maintenance facilities. The action
alternatives could also result in increased vehicle traffic to, from, and in the Plan
Area.
The level of the potential increase in motorized vehicle and vessel use is unclear,
since Plan Area visitation has fluctuated in recent years independent of local and
regional population growth (see Chart 2-1). Future criteria pollutant emissions
related to Plan Area motorized vehicle and vessel use were estimated using the
CARB EMFAC 2007 and Offroad 2007 models, respectively. The modeling
assumed a 98 percent increase in daily vehicle trips and boat launches in future
year 2040 over existing conditions (Section 2.5.2 and Table 2-15). The increase
was based on the California Department of Finance’s projected population
increase of 98 percent in 2040 for Merced County (DOF 2011). Applying this
increase to Plan Area vehicle and vessel use is considered highly conservative.
Santa Clara County, which is the source of at least a portion of Plan Area
visitation, 8 is projected to have a 2040 population increase of only 21 percent. In
addition, the 98 percent increase assumes that Plan Area visitation will nearly
double.
8 CSP does not have data for county of visitor origin, but because Santa Clara County is adjacent
to the western side of the Plan Area, it is reasonable to assume that some vistors come from that
county.
5-18 San Luis Reservoir SRA
Draft RMP/GP and Draft EIS/EIR