development report 2012 - UMAR

More documents

Recommendations

Info

98 Development Report 2012 Indicators of Slovenia’s development Inflation Consumer prices increased by 2.0% in 2011. 1 As in the previous three years when the rates of inflation were similar, price movements mainly reflected weak economic activity. Different measures of core inflation, which show these effects, moved between 1% and 2% at the end of the year. This is otherwise more than in previous years and a result of the spillover of higher oil and food prices from international markets to the domestic retail prices of certain goods and service from the beginning of 2011 and the end of 2010. Unlike in previous years, the total effect of fiscal charges was small last year (0.1 p.p. to 0.2 p.p.). The greatest contribution arose from higher excise duties on tobacco products. Monthly fluctuations in prices of seasonal goods and services were greater than usual. Energy and food prices also increased most notably since the beginning of the crisis (2009–2011), by 36.0% and 5.5%, respectively. The prices of services rose the least (3.0%), while the prices of non-energy industrial commodities dropped by 4.4%. 2 Energy price rises accounted for nearly half of last year’s total consumer price growth. The principal reason for last year’s growth in domestic energy prices was almost 18% higher oil prices (in euros) on global markets. Energy prices grew by 6.9%, in the preceding two years combined by more than 29%, partly also owing to higher excise duties. Energy prices contributed 0.9 p.p. to inflation in 2011, two thirds of which came from higher prices of liquid fuels for transport and heating and the rest from higher prices of gas, district heating and electricity. Food prices recorded higher growth than in the previous year. Food prices were up 4.9% at the end of the year and contributed 0.8 p.p. to inflation in 2011. They increased 2 p.p. more than a year earlier. As in 2007, when domestic food prices had risen by nearly 14%, last year the main reason for price rises was higher global prices of commodities, but due to less favourable economic circumstances the passthrough to domestic retail prices was much smaller than in 2007. non-energy commodity prices was recorded for the prices of durable goods and a somewhat smaller decline for the prices of semi-durable goods, whose purchase can be deferred. Prices of non-durables have been growing ever since the beginning of the crisis, though in the last two years at lower rates than previously. Seasonal fluctuations were stronger than in previous years. Seasonal fluctuations, which impact the dynamics of consumer price index between months, are typical particularly for clothing and footwear (where they are largest), and package holidays and fresh fruit and vegetables (where they are less pronounced). Last year seasonal fluctuations were stronger than in previous years, which can be partly explained by changes early last year in Eurostat’s methodology for collecting prices of seasonal goods and services in Slovenia and euro area. According to the SORS estimate, this methodological change contributed 0.2 p.p. to inflation growth in 2011. Inflation in the euro area was 2.7% last year. Consumer price growth exceeded the ECB’s inflation target, which is just below 2% annually. The man factor of inflation was the increase in oil prices on the global market, which had a direct effect on growth in energy prices (with the same contribution to inflation as in Slovenia) and an indirect effect on the increase in other energy prices and certain other retail prices, so that the indicators of core inflation in the euro area also increased relative to the previous year. The key reason for lower inflation in Slovenia than in the euro area as a whole is weaker economic activity, which is shown in lower domestic core inflation, particularly in the component that results from the movement of prices of durable and semi-durable goods, which in the past three years were more or less falling in Slovenia, while they grew somewhat in the euro area. Slovenia also recorded somewhat lower growth in the prices of services. The movement of prices of other goods and services remained moderate last year. Last year, prices of goods, excluding food and energy, dropped by close to 1% while prices of services rose by 0.4%. The decline in these prices in the last three years and modest growth in services prices in the last two years reflect weak demand. In this period, the largest decline in 1 In December 2011 compared with December 2010. 2 The calculation of growth according these groups is based on the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).
Development Report 2012 Indicators of Slovenia’s development 99 Table: Annual price rises in Slovenia and in the euro area, in % 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Consumer prices in Slovenia (CPI) 9.0 8.9 2.3 2.8 5.6 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 Goods 7.1 8.8 2.0 2.1 6.0 1.3 1.9 2.7 2.7 Services 15.9 9.2 3.0 4.3 4.8 3.8 1.6 0.0 0.4 Administered prices 10.0 16.0 7.7 2.1 7.2 -7.8 12.6 11.5 7.1 Energy 8.2 18.9 9.8 3.7 9.6 -11.9 14.7 14.3 9.1 Other 11.4 12.0 3.0 -2.1 1.5 0.4 4.0 0.7 1.6 Consumer prices in the euro area (HICP) 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.9 3.1 1.6 0.9 2.2 2.7 Source: SI-STAT Data Portal – Prices – Consumer price indices, 2012; annual data (SORS), 2012; Eurostat Portal Page – Economy and Finance – Prices – Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2012; calculations by IMAD. Figure: Y-o-y consumer price rises in Slovenia and in the euro area (HICP) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Y-o-y growth, in % Slovenia HICP Slovenia HICP -core inflation Euro area HICP Euro area HICP -core inflation Source: Eurostat Portal Page – Economy and Finance – Prices – Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2012. Note: Core inflation – consumer prices without energy and non-processed food.
Page 1:
development report 2012
Page 5 and 6:
Development Report 2012 Contents 3
Page 7:
Development Report 2012 Contents 5
Page 10 and 11:
8 Development Report 2012 Main find
Page 12 and 13:
10 Development Report 2012 Summary
Page 15:
Part I Development by the prioritie
Page 18 and 19:
16 Development Report 2012 Developm
Page 20 and 21:
Page 22 and 23:
Page 24 and 25:
Page 26 and 27:
Page 28 and 29:
Page 30 and 31:
Page 32 and 33:
Page 34 and 35:
Page 36 and 37:
Page 38 and 39:
Page 40 and 41:
Page 42 and 43:
Page 44 and 45:
Page 46 and 47:
Page 48 and 49:
Page 50 and 51: 48 Development Report 2012 Developm
Page 93: Part II Indicators of Slovenia’s
Page 96 and 97: 94 Development Report 2012 Indicato
Page 98 and 99: 96 Development Report 2012 Indicato
Page 102 and 103: 100 Development Report 2012 Indicat
Page 133 and 134: THE SECOND PRIORITY Efficient use o
Page 135 and 136: Development Report 2012 Indicators
Page 151 and 152:
Development Report 2012 Indicators
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157:
Page 160 and 161:
158 Development Report 2012 Indicat
Page 162 and 163:
Page 164 and 165:
Page 166 and 167:
Page 168 and 169:
Page 171 and 172:
THE FOURTH PRIORITY: A modern welfa
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Page 177 and 178:
Page 179 and 180:
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186:
Page 187 and 188:
Page 189 and 190:
Page 191 and 192:
Page 193 and 194:
Page 195 and 196:
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203:
Page 206 and 207:
Page 208 and 209:
Page 210 and 211:
Page 212 and 213:
Page 214 and 215:
Page 216 and 217:
Page 218 and 219:
Page 220 and 221:
Page 222 and 223:
Page 224 and 225:
Page 226 and 227:
Page 228 and 229:
Page 230 and 231:
Page 232 and 233:
Page 234 and 235:
Page 236 and 237:
234 Development Report 2012 Bibliog
Page 238 and 239:
Page 240 and 241:
Page 242 and 243:
Page 244 and 245:
Page 247 and 248:
Development Report 2012 Appendix 24
Page 249 and 250:
Development Report 2012 Appendix 24
Page 251:
development report 2012
show all

development report 2012 - UMAR

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?