development report 2012 - UMAR

116 Development Report 2012
Indicators of Slovenia’s development
Exports and imports as
a share of GDP
Slovenia’s trade integration rate increased again
in 2011, which was in addition to foreign demand,
also due to higher foreign trade prices. The average
share of trade in goods and services relative to GDP
reached 71.8% in 2011, a 6.6 p.p. higher figure than
a year previously. After a significant decline in 2008
and 2009, Slovenia’s trade integration rate rose again
last year, mainly due to increased trade integration of
goods in international trade flows, while the relative
volume of trade in services has been growing only
modestly for several years, except in 2009. The share
of goods exports expanded by 6.1 p.p., the share
of merchandise imports by 6.3 p.p. The growth of
Slovenia’s exports of goods to the EU remained
relatively high. Exports to non-EU markets also
recorded stronger growth, particularly to the former
Yugoslav countries and the US. The growth of goods
exports was underpinned by growth in medium-highand
medium-low-technology industries, which have
a predominant share in Slovenia’s total exports of
goods. Electricity exports also picked up considerably
last year; among shrinking electricity production,
this is related to higher exports, which were, to a
certain extent, intended for re-exports. Having been
increasing vigorously for the second successive year,
electricity exports thus contributed 1 p.p. to the
growth of exports in 2011. On the side of imports,
intermediate goods imports have been picking up
fastest because of the strong dependence of Slovenian
producers on foreign suppliers and individual phases
of production, and were higher in 2011 than before
the crisis. Imports of electricity also recorded much
stronger growth. The increase in consumer goods
imports was largely attributable to imports of food
and beverages, gasoline and passenger cars, while
imports of durable goods declined. Imports of
investment goods, which are mainly affected by the
current and expected economic conditions at home
and abroad, were recovering at the slowest pace.
The growth of the value of merchandise imports was
also underpinned by rising prices of energy products
and other primary commodities, which is why import
prices rose faster than export prices. The terms of trade 1
therefore deteriorated further in 2011 (by 1.6%). In
2011, the share of services exports in GDP was 0.8 p.p.
higher than a year earlier, while the share of services
imports remained unchanged for the fourth year in a
row. Exports of services recorded a somewhat larger
share of transport and travel services, where Slovenia
has comparable advantages over the EU as a whole.
The share of knowledge-intensive services (the group
of other services), which include insurance, financial,
computer and IT services, communication services,
licences, patents and copyrights, and other business
services, continued to decline in 2011. In this segment
of services exports Slovenia lags behind the current
trends in the services trade.
In 2010 and 2011, as well as in the whole period
since the beginning of the crisis (2008), in Slovenia
the trade integration rate increased more than in
the EU as a whole and more than in the majority of
the small economies of the EU. After a substantial
decline in 2008 and 2009, which had been much
larger than the EU average, in 2010 and 2011 the share
of international trade in GDP expanded much more
than in the EU, where in the last two years economic
growth was not based solely on growth in foreign
demand. 2 The average share of exports and imports
in GDP also increased somewhat more in Slovenia
than in the EU as a whole since the beginning of the
crisis (in 2008–2011). In the preceding two years, the
relative volume of foreign trade was also rising faster
than, on average, in small open economies of the
EU, yet more slowly than in Baltic countries and in
Slovakia.
1
The terms of trade are an important indicator of economic
development, particularly in small open economies, which
are fairly vulnerable to external price shocks. Given the price
inelasticity of the quantity of exports and imports demanded,
changes in foreign trade prices also affect nominal net exports.
Net exports are thus positively correlated with the terms of
trade.
2
In Slovenia, domestic consumption declined further in 2010
and 2011, while in the EU it already started to grow.