development report 2012 - UMAR

114 Development Report 2012
Indicators of Slovenia’s development
Structure of
merchandise exports
by factor intensity
Slovenia’s gap with EU countries in terms of hightech
exports remains wide. After the remarkable
one-off increase in 2003, 1 the share of high-tech
products in merchandise exports was declining in
2004 and 2005, and then started to grow modestly.
A more visible increase was recorded only in 2008
and 2009 (from 17.4% in 2007 to 21.1% in 2010), in
2009 only due to a considerable shrinkage of exports
of less competitive industries at the beginning of
the economic crisis. Among high-tech products,
pharmaceuticals represent the largest share, as they
were less affected by lower demand in the first period
of the crisis 2 . Amid a gradual recovery of exports of
other product groups, the share of pharmaceuticals,
and hence the share of high-tech products in
Slovenian merchandise exports, declined somewhat
again (by 0.8 p.p.). In the period since the beginning
of the crisis, the relatively wide gap in exports of
the most technology-intensive products between
Slovenia and the EU average narrowed only in 2008;
in the following two years it widened somewhat
again and remains high, close to 7 p.p. Moreover, in
2010 the gap with the average of new EU countries
even rose (by 3 p.p.) to the highest level in the last
decade. The share of medium-high-tech products in
Slovenian merchandise exports also declined slightly
in 2010 (by 0.3 p.p.), on account of lower passenger
car exports 3 after the phase-out of the temporary
incentives for new car purchases in some European
countries. This is the product group where Slovenia
has otherwise the greatest comparative advantages
in exports (see Table).
For a number of years, the importance of products
with low value 4 added in merchandise exports
has been declining primarily due to a lower share
of labour-intensive products. The share of lowtech
products has also shrunk noticeably since
the beginning of the economic crisis. The share of
labour-intensive products dropped further in 2010.
Since Slovenia’s accession to the EU, the share of these
products has been falling rapidly chiefly on account
of the lower shares of textile products, furniture and
paperboard manufactures. The relative volume of
labour-intense products has thus been approaching
the EU average in the last few years. However, in 2010
it was still nearly three percentage points higher than
the EU average and almost one percentage point
higher than the average in the new EU Member States.
Data for 2010 also indicate a further decline in the
share of low-tech products in merchandise exports
(1.2 p.p.), which had been relatively high until 2008.
After several years of growth, the share of exports
of miscellaneous metal products shrank in 2009 and
2010. The decline in 2010 was largely related to a fall
in the share of iron and steel profiles. The share of lowtech
products was thus only 1.6 p.p. higher than the
EU average in 2010.
The share of exports of natural-resource-intensive
products 5 increased markedly in 2010 after being
relatively stable for a number of years. A more
pronounced increase in 2010 (by 1.6 p.p.) was due
to significant growth in the share of electricity and
aluminium exports, most of which was not based on
increased production, according to our estimate. As a
result of significant regional differences in prices and
increased transmission capacity on the Slovenian-
Italian border, electricity transit from Croatia and
Austria to Italy rose substantially in 2010. Owing to
a larger volume of trading, imports and exports of
electricity grew considerably and hence the share of
electricity in merchandise exports, even though net
exports (the difference between exports and imports)
accounted for only slightly more than a fifth of total
electricity exports that year. Due to lower demand,
the volume of primary aluminium production had
dropped to a mere 41% of full capacity in 2009 and
climbed only to 48% in 2010, which leads us to believe
that the significant increase in the share of aluminium
in merchandise exports relative to 2009 was largely
due to higher selling prices. The shares of aluminium
exports in 2009 and 2010 were otherwise much lower
than before 2008.
1
As a result of increased sales of pharmaceuticals to the
American market.
2
In 2008 exports of pharmaceuticals rose by 20.2% in nominal
terms; in 2009 they shrank by 8.4% while in 2010 they increased
by 1.6%.
3
A decline by 1.4 p.p., while the share of other products from
this group was increasing.
4
The groups of low-tech and labour-intensive products include
products with the lowest value added per employee such
as: clothing, textile products, footwear, furniture, glass and
glass products, flat- and rolled-iron products, and base-metal
products.
5
The main groups of exported resource-intensive products in
Slovenia’s merchandise exports are: aluminium, finished mineral
manufactures, electricity, rough and worked wood, veneer and
other manufactured wood, wood manufactures, and nonalcoholic
and alcoholic beverages.