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116 Development Report 2012 Indicators of Slovenia’s development Exports and imports as a share of GDP Slovenia’s trade integration rate increased again in 2011, which was in addition to foreign demand, also due to higher foreign trade prices. The average share of trade in goods and services relative to GDP reached 71.8% in 2011, a 6.6 p.p. higher figure than a year previously. After a significant decline in 2008 and 2009, Slovenia’s trade integration rate rose again last year, mainly due to increased trade integration of goods in international trade flows, while the relative volume of trade in services has been growing only modestly for several years, except in 2009. The share of goods exports expanded by 6.1 p.p., the share of merchandise imports by 6.3 p.p. The growth of Slovenia’s exports of goods to the EU remained relatively high. Exports to non-EU markets also recorded stronger growth, particularly to the former Yugoslav countries and the US. The growth of goods exports was underpinned by growth in medium-highand medium-low-technology industries, which have a predominant share in Slovenia’s total exports of goods. Electricity exports also picked up considerably last year; among shrinking electricity production, this is related to higher exports, which were, to a certain extent, intended for re-exports. Having been increasing vigorously for the second successive year, electricity exports thus contributed 1 p.p. to the growth of exports in 2011. On the side of imports, intermediate goods imports have been picking up fastest because of the strong dependence of Slovenian producers on foreign suppliers and individual phases of production, and were higher in 2011 than before the crisis. Imports of electricity also recorded much stronger growth. The increase in consumer goods imports was largely attributable to imports of food and beverages, gasoline and passenger cars, while imports of durable goods declined. Imports of investment goods, which are mainly affected by the current and expected economic conditions at home and abroad, were recovering at the slowest pace. The growth of the value of merchandise imports was also underpinned by rising prices of energy products and other primary commodities, which is why import prices rose faster than export prices. The terms of trade 1 therefore deteriorated further in 2011 (by 1.6%). In 2011, the share of services exports in GDP was 0.8 p.p. higher than a year earlier, while the share of services imports remained unchanged for the fourth year in a row. Exports of services recorded a somewhat larger share of transport and travel services, where Slovenia has comparable advantages over the EU as a whole. The share of knowledge-intensive services (the group of other services), which include insurance, financial, computer and IT services, communication services, licences, patents and copyrights, and other business services, continued to decline in 2011. In this segment of services exports Slovenia lags behind the current trends in the services trade. In 2010 and 2011, as well as in the whole period since the beginning of the crisis (2008), in Slovenia the trade integration rate increased more than in the EU as a whole and more than in the majority of the small economies of the EU. After a substantial decline in 2008 and 2009, which had been much larger than the EU average, in 2010 and 2011 the share of international trade in GDP expanded much more than in the EU, where in the last two years economic growth was not based solely on growth in foreign demand. 2 The average share of exports and imports in GDP also increased somewhat more in Slovenia than in the EU as a whole since the beginning of the crisis (in 2008–2011). In the preceding two years, the relative volume of foreign trade was also rising faster than, on average, in small open economies of the EU, yet more slowly than in Baltic countries and in Slovakia. 1 The terms of trade are an important indicator of economic development, particularly in small open economies, which are fairly vulnerable to external price shocks. Given the price inelasticity of the quantity of exports and imports demanded, changes in foreign trade prices also affect nominal net exports. Net exports are thus positively correlated with the terms of trade. 2 In Slovenia, domestic consumption declined further in 2010 and 2011, while in the EU it already started to grow.
Development Report 2012 Indicators of Slovenia’s development 117 Table: Average trade-to-GDP ratio (exports and imports) * in Slovenia and the EU, in % 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Trade-to-GDP ratio – Slovenia 50.6 55.4 62.4 66.8 70.4 68.8 57.7 65.1 71.8 Goods 42.1 47.1 52.6 56.7 59.7 57.3 46.8 53.7 59.9 Services 8.5 8.4 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.4 10.8 11.5 11.9 Exports of goods and services 49.6 53.7 62.2 66.5 69.6 67.1 58.4 65.4 72.3 Goods 39.7 44.2 50.8 54.8 57.3 53.7 45.8 51.9 58.0 Services 9.8 9.5 11.4 11.7 12.3 13.4 12.6 13.5 14.3 Imports of goods and services 51.5 57.2 62.6 67.1 71.3 70.4 57.0 64.9 71.3 Goods 44.4 49.9 54.5 58.6 62.2 60.9 47.9 55.4 61.8 Services 7.1 7.2 8.1 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.1 9.4 9.5 Trade-to-GDP ratio – EU-27 28.8 35.8 36.8 39.3 39.9 41.2 36.3 40.2 42.9 Goods 22.8 27.9 28.4 30.5 30.8 31.8 27.2 30.8 33.3 Services 6.0 7.9 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.1 9.5 9.6 Sources: SI-STAT data portal – National accounts, 2012; Eurostat Portal Page – Economy and Finance, 2012; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The ratio between the average value of total exports and imports according to the national accounts statistics and GDP in current prices. Figure: Average trade-to-GDP ratio (exports and imports) * in small EU economies 180 160 140 2005 2009 2011 120 In % 100 80 60 40 20 0 Luxembourg Estonia Slovakia Malta Ireland Slovenia Lithuania Latvia Austria Cyprus Denmark Finland Sources: SI-STAT data portal – National accounts, 2012; Eurostat Portal Page – Economy and Finance, 2012; calculations by IMAD. Note: 1 The ratio between the average value of total exports and imports according to the national accounts statistics and GDP in current prices.
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8 Development Report 2012 Main find
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10 Development Report 2012 Summary
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Part I Development by the prioritie
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THE FOURTH PRIORITY: A modern welfa
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234 Development Report 2012 Bibliog
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Development Report 2012 Appendix 24
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