development report 2012 - UMAR

170 Development Report 2012
Indicators of Slovenia’s development
Employment rate
The employment rate 1 has declined for the third
year in a row, in the last two years more sharply
than in the EU as a whole. The reason lies in
tightened economic conditions, which had larger
negative consequences in Slovenia than on average
in the EU, and the consequent fall in employment.
Until 2003, the employment rate in Slovenia had
hovered around 63%, but it rose substantially in 2004
upon Slovenia’s accession to the EU, exceeding both
the EU average and the average of the EU-15. It had
been rising continually until 2008, then started to fall
in 2009 owing to a decline in economic activity (see
Table). The fall in employment in 2009 was relatively
small in comparison to the drop in economic
activity, partly due to the usual lag in labour market
response to the economic situation, but also as a
result of the government stepping in and adopting
two intervention acts 2 that helped to preserve jobs
in some vulnerable industries. In 2010 and 2011
employment continued to drop, despite the modest
recovery. Enterprises were mitigating the 2009 drop
in productivity with further cuts in employment.
Moreover, the effects of the government intervention
expired or declined, and in the second half of 2011
economic growth started to fall again. In 2011, the
employment rate in Slovenia thus fell by around 2
p.p., dropping below the EU average in the first and
second quarters for the first time to date.
In 2011, employment dropped most notably in
construction. The volume of informal work was also
substantially lower. In 2011, the number of formally
employed persons according to the Statistical Register
of Employment (SRE) fell by 2.1% relative to that in the
same period of 2010, most notably in construction
(by 13.6%). It also decreased (by 2% or more) in
agriculture, industry, and production and various nonbusiness
services. In 2011, employment increased
only in information, professional and administrative
support service activities, and among public services
in education, health and social work, while it dropped
in public administration. The number of formally
employed persons declined in particular (by 2.4%),
within that most notably the number of foreigners
working in Slovenia (by 14.3%), while the number
of self-employed persons rose (by 2.4%, excluding
farmers, the number of whom also increased for
statistical reasons). Comparing these data with those
from the Labour Force Survey, according to which
employment declined more than according to the
Statistical Register, we estimate that the number of
persons in informal employment 3 dropped in 2011 for
the second year in a row (according to our estimates,
by around 14% in 2011 and 3% in 2010).
In 2011, the employment rate declined for all age
categories and both genders. In the last three years
the employment rates of young people aged 15–24
and people aged 25–54 declined in particular. The year
2011 also saw a substantial drop in the employment
rate in the age group of 55–64, which had otherwise
been increasing slowly until 2009, although it has
always been one of the lowest in the EU. In the second
quarter of 2011, it totalled a mere 30.6% (16.9 p.p. less
than the EU average). The employment rate of youth
hovered around the EU average in 2007–2010, largely
due to high informal employment in this population
group (mainly work through student job agencies),
but in 2011 it dropped more than in the EU as a whole.
In the second quarter of 2011, it stood at 30.9% (2.7%
less than in the EU). Formal employment of the young
population according to SRE (see Figure) remains low.
The female employment rate in particular is higher
than in the EU. After hovering around 58% until 2003,
it had been growing rapidly in 2004–2008 and reached
64.5% in 2008. Since then it has been declining,
totalling only 61.1% in the second quarter of 2011 (in
the EU 58.7%). The rate of male employment, having
moved around 67% until 2003, caught up with the EU
average in 2007–2009. By 2008 it grew to 72.9%, while
in the last two years it was dropping faster than in the
EU, recording a low of 67.6% by the second quarter of
2011 (2.6% lower than the EU average).
In 2011, the government intervened much less in
the labour market than in the preceding two years.
March 2011 saw the phase-out of the last subsidies
according to one of the two acts by which the
government was mitigating the economic crisis on
the labour market. The effect of active employment
policy programmes was also lower in 2011, and only
around 10 thousand unemployed found work under
employment, self-employment and public works
programmes, a third fewer than the year before.
1
In the age group of 15–64 years.
2
The Partial Subsidising of Full-Time Work Act, OG RS 5/2009,
and the Partial Reimbursement of Payment Compensation Act,
OG RS 42/2009.
3
People who work either as unpaid family workers, on
contractual basis or in the grey economy.