development report 2012 - UMAR

Development Report 2012
Development by the priorities of SDS – A competitive economy and faster economic growth
25
1.2. Increasing competitiveness
and promoting entrepreneurial
development
The Slovenian economy’s export competitiveness
has deteriorated considerably since the onset of the
economic crisis (2008). During the period between
the beginning of 2008 and the third quarter of 2011,
Slovenia lost approximately 15.6% of its export market
share on the world market of goods and 7.5% in its
largest trading partners 20 . This loss accounted for a good
half of the increases made during the preceding sevenyear
period of incessant growth 21 . The contraction of
export market shares at the beginning of the crisis was
characteristic of all EU Member States. However, Slovenia
was ranked in the group of countries with the largest
contraction on the world market 22 . During the period
2008–2009, a drop in market shares was alleviated by the
incentives for purchasing motor vehicles proposed by
some EU Member States, which resulted in an increase
in Slovenian exports and, consequently, an increase in
the market share of motor vehicles on foreign markets
(mainly in France and Germany). In 2010, when incentives
for purchasing motor vehicles in the majority of its
trading partners came to an end 23 , the drop in Slovenia’s
foreign market share grew deeper (‐10%). That year,
Slovenia came close to approaching the threshold of the
excessive imbalances detection mechanism at EU level,
which concerning the market share indicator, in addition
to goods, includes also services 24 . Apart from motor
vehicles, the reduction of shares on the foreign markets
in 2010, as was the case in 2008–2009, also existed
with the majority of other important Slovenian export
product groups 25 . The data available for the first nine
months of 2011 point to a stagnation in market shares
on the world market and to slight growth recorded with
its key trading partners. What is encouraging, however,
is the high growth recorded in two of its most important
trading partners: Germany and Croatia.
20
These comprise thirteen countries: Germany, Italy, Austria,
France, United Kingdom, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic,
Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, the United States and
Macedonia.
21
The loss in its largest trade partners accounted for a quarter of
the increase for the period 2000–2007.
22
During the period 2008–2009, a drop in its export market
share meant Slovenia ranked eighth among 17 EU Member
States; in 2010, a deterioration in its export competitiveness
meant Slovenia ranked fourth among EU Member States. .
23
In France, incentives for purchasing motor vehicles gradually
stopped (through reducing financial compensation) by the end
of 2010. Some larger Member States, although less important
importers of motor vehicles from Slovenia, offered these
incentives throughout the whole year (the Netherlands) or part
of 2010 (United Kingdom, Spain).
24
For more details, see Box 2: Excessive Imbalance Procedure
at EU level.
25
See indicator Market share.
Figure 5: Slovenia’s market share of exports on the global, EU
and non-EU markets
Indices, 2000=100
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
World market EU Non-EU
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, 2011; calculations by
IMAD.
Note: The export market share on the global market is calculated as Slovenia’s share
of exports among global exports, while on the EU and non-EU markets, this share is
calculated as Slovenia’s share of exports within EU and/or non-EU imports.
Over the past few years, the decline in Slovenia’s
export market share on the world market, which was
accompanied by a fall in competitiveness, largely
occurred under the influence of structural effects
in association with the geographical orientation of
Slovenia’s exports. After 2008, Slovenia’s export market
share was reduced to the largest extent on non-EU
markets, where major structural changes have recently
occurred. The main characteristic was extremely strong
market growth in countries with a relatively low level of
Slovenian exports (China, India and Brazil), which further
increased the decline in our share in world exports.
Besides that, outside the EU, most of Slovenia’s exports go
to the countries of the former Yugoslavia and to Russia,
where we have recently witnessed a decline in our export
market share. The biggest fall by far was recorded on the
Russian market, which is very large and growing rapidly;
for Slovenia – a small country with low export capacity –
maintaining its export share in this fast growing market
represents a significant challenge. A downturn in the
export market share also occurred on the markets of
the countries of the former Yugoslavia, which have
experienced a relatively slow recovery since the onset of
the crisis; however, they have a relatively more important
place in our export structure than in that of other EU
Member States or in our Eastern European competitors.
Recently, our region-oriented export activities have also
proved to be less favourable from the perspective of our
indirect links with fast growing global markets, since the
share of Germany as our indirect link to these markets
seems to be smaller in our exports than in the exports of
the majority of our Eastern Europe competitors (Czech
Republic, Hungary and Poland).