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74 Development Report 2012 Development by the priorities of SDS – Integration of measures to achieve sustainable development transport volumes (by 7.9%), which resulted in a drop in the share of road freight transport to 82.3% 244 . Based on data for the first three quarters of 2011, we estimate that the share of road freight transport in 2011 continued to decline (to 81.3%) 245 . Before 2010, the share of road transport continued to increase steadily, an unfavourable development in terms of sustainable transportation. In 2010, the share of road freight transport in EU Member States decreased on average (to 76.5%), but the increase in freight volumes was less than in Slovenia. The modal split of freight transport in Slovenia is less favourable than the EU average, and freight transport volumes are extremely high due to Slovenia’s transit position. In 2010, Slovenian road transport operators transported 98% more tonne-kilometres 246 per inhabitant than the EU average, and the volume of rail transport per inhabitant was similarly above the EU average (114% higher). The growth in freight transport volumes was particularly high after Slovenia’s accession to the EU and the latter’s subsequent enlargement, while the unfavourable structure was stimulated by low prices for motor fuels and tolls for cargo vehicles before the onset of the crisis, and more modern road infrastructure than railway infrastructure. In public passenger transport, the trend of reduced bus transportation continued in 2010 and 2011. In 2008, public passenger traffic in Slovenia constituted only 13.8% of the total passenger transport, which is much less than in the majority of EU Member States 247 . The high level of individualised forms of transport in Slovenia is corroborated by a higher share of passenger vehicles per inhabitant (Slovenia: 521 cars per 1,000 inhabitants, EU: 473 cars per 1,000 inhabitants), despite below Box 10: Elasticity of motor fuel demand Using an instrumental variables regression method, we estimated the impact of the changed ratio between Slovenian and foreign fuel prices, and the impact of industrial production on motor fuel demand in Slovenia. The analysis of demand for motor fuels is based on monthly data for the period 2000–2011 1 . The quantities of petrol sold declined constantly until 2010, due, amongst other factors, to the changing structure of passenger vehicles in favour of diesel fuelled vehicles. The growing quantities of diesel fuel sold were also boosted by increasing road freight transport. At the end of 2008, diesel fuel quantities were considerably reduced, which coincided with the onset of the economic crisis and a fall in industrial production, which resulted in a decrease in foreign trade flows. Due to Slovenia’s small size, we expect that fuel prices in neighbouring countries affect the sale of fuel in our country. Using an instrumental variables regression method, we estimated the impact of the changed ratio between Slovenian and foreign fuel prices, and the impact of industrial production on motor fuel demand in Slovenia. Time lags and seasonal components are also variables in the function. Foreign fuel price consists of the price of fuel in neighbouring countries, and is weighted Figure: Quantities of diesel fuel and petrol sold in Slovenia, 2000–2011 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 by the share of transport through border crossings. The majority of (freight and passenger) vehicles cross the Italian border, followed by the Croatian and Austrian borders, and the lowest share is through the Hungarian border 2 . For Slovenia, we took account of the excise duty refund scheme for diesel fuel for commercial purposes, which reduces the price paid by (domestic and foreign) beneficiaries for fuel from July 2009 onwards 3 . Quantity of sold fuel in thousands of litres 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 Diesel Petrol Jan 00 Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Source: Ministry of Finance, 2011. 1 The data used for the analysis are: Quantities of fuels sold (source: Ministry of Finance), fuel prices in Slovenia and neighbouring countries (sources: SORS, Eurostat, European Commission - Oil bulletin, Automobile Association of Slovenia (AMZS)), industrial production index (source: SORS), EUR exchange rate (source: BoS), consumer price index (source: SORS), border crossing traffic (source: Ministry of Transport – Slovenian Roads Agency. 2 In case of cargo vehicles, Italian–Slovenian crossings constituted a good third of all border crossings, Croatian–Slovenian crossings and Austrian– Slovenian approx. a quarter and Hungarian–Slovenian crossings less than a fifth. For passenger cars, the share of Italian– Slovenian crossings constituted around 40%, Croatian–Slovenian 30%, Austrian – Slovenian 25%, and the rest was Hungarian– Slovenian. 3 Based on the data of the Ministry of Finance, we calculated the effective price of diesel fuel by taking into account the quantity of diesel fuel eligible for excise duty refund. 244 The trend of 2009 was reversed, meaning that rail freight transport volumes decreased by 20% and road freight transport volumes by 9.2%. The growth of transported freight volume in 2010 was comparable to its decline in 2009. The volume of both types of freight transport thus came close to the pre-crisis level (in 2008), and the share of road freight transport returned to the comparable level as well. 245 While the volume of transported freight in both modes of transportation increased. 246 The majority of transports (86%) were carried out abroad. 247 See Development Report 2011, 2011.
Development Report 2012 Development by the priorities of SDS – Integration of measures to achieve sustainable development 75 4 Ker se razmerje med cenama giblje blizu 100, to pomeni, da povišanje Box 10: Elasticity of motor fuel demand - continue cene v Sloveniji za 1 % (ob nespremenjenih cenah v sosednjih državah) zviša razmerje za približno 1 o. t. The results indicate a statistically significant change in the price ratio and industrial production on diesel and petrol sold in Slovenia. If the ratio between the domestic and foreign prices of diesel fuel, expressed as a percentage, is increased by 1% 4 , the quantity of diesel fuel sold is reduced by 0.56% in the short term. A 1% growth in industrial production, however, prompts a 0.66% rise in diesel fuel sold. As expected, both estimates of elasticity are lower for petrol. If the ratio between the domestic and foreign prices of petrol, expressed as a percentage, is increased by 1%, the quantity of petrol sold is reduced by 0.20% in the short term. A 1% growth in industrial production, however, prompts a 0.12% rise in petrol sold. Table: Elasticity of motor fuel demand Dizel Bencin Industrial production 0.659* (0.045) 0.124** (0.041) Fuel price ratio 0.557* (0.052) 0.201* (0.031) Adjusted R 2 0.773 0.841 T 136 136 Source: IMAD estimate. Notes: Standard deviations in brackets. Statistically significant at the risk level: * 1%, ** 5%. Relative price elasticities of fuel quantities should be taken in consideration in determining excise duty policy. A change in excise duty (and the resulting change in the ratio between prices in Slovenia and prices in neighbouring countries) is followed by a change in the quantities of fuel sold; both affect the level of revenues from fuel taxation. In 2010 excise duties for commercial diesel totalling EUR 46.6 million were refunded to road transport operators. If road transport operators could not claim excise duty refunds, it is estimated that, due to a higher effective price for diesel 5 , this would reduce the quantity of fuel sold and, as a result, reduce revenues from the taxation of diesel, but only by approximately one third of the total excise duty refund amount. 4 Because the ratio between the prices is close to 100, this means that a price increase of 1% in Slovenia (at unchanged prices in the neighbouring countries) increases the ratio by approx. 1%. 5 Taking into consideration our estimated effective price and flexibility. Comparable international study estimates of price flexibility of motor fuel demand are within the range of our estimates average economic development. This situation is partly that the revenues from environmental taxes in 2010 caused by dispersed settlement 248 , and partly due to the were nominally increased by 2.3%, i.e. to EUR 1.3 billion. fact that public passenger transport is neither efficient With a simultaneous increase in economic activity, this nor competitive. According to data from SORS, longdistance bus transport, despite increasing daily migration unchanged (3.6% of GDP). In comparison to the EU meant that their share with respect to GDP remained flows, declined by 50% between 2001 and 2010, while average, the revenues from environmental taxes in the number of passengers using urban transport fell Slovenia are relatively high 251 ; the difference to the EU by more than a fifth. The trend of long-distance bus Member States results from higher revenue collected transport decline also continued in 2011 249 . Slightly from energy taxes (Slovenia: 3.0% of GDP, EU: 1.8% of more favourable trends in rail passenger transport were GDP). It should be noted that above-average revenues interrupted during the period from 2010 to the third from energy taxes in Slovenia are not boosted by higher quarter of 2011, but the number of passenger-kilometres tax rates, but by greater energy consumption. The latter was 10% higher than in 2001. During the period analysed largely reflects the above-average fuel consumption in (2001–2010), transport with passenger cars increased transport, which is, on the one hand, a consequence of the most 250 (by 23.2%). However, in 2010, the volume of Slovenia’s transit position and relatively well-developed passenger transport by car did not increase for the first road infrastructure, and, on the other, stimulated by low time in this period, which might be due to higher fuel excise duties on fuels, especially before 2009. In 2010, prices and the poor economic situation. the revenues from energy taxes were further increased, which was mostly contributed to by higher revenues Revenues from environmental taxes in Slovenia are from electricity taxation 252 . However, relatively high relatively high but tax rates often do not reflect the negative impacts on the environment. We estimate 248 Among 38 analysed OECD countries, only Slovakia had a lower population concentration than Slovenia (OECD Factbook 2010, 2010). 249 Data on the volume of urban bus transport are not comparable due to the changed methodology in 2011. 250 Measured in passenger kilometres. 251 According to Eurostat data, environmental taxes in the EU in 2009 amounted to an average of 2.4% of GDP. 252 In 2010, a contribution for energy efficiency was introduced and, in August 2010, excise duties on electricity were increased. In addition to higher electricity taxation, a rise in electricity consumption recorded in 2010 contributed to the increased revenues. Excise duty on petrol was also slightly increased in 2010, but due to the equally lower consumption,
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Development Report 2012 Contents 3
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8 Development Report 2012 Main find
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10 Development Report 2012 Summary
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Part I Development by the prioritie
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THE SECOND PRIORITY Efficient use o
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Development Report 2012 Indicators
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THE FOURTH PRIORITY: A modern welfa
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234 Development Report 2012 Bibliog
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Development Report 2012 Appendix 24
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Development Report 2012 Appendix 24
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development report 2012
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