Airport Master Plan 2012 - City of Waterville

Identifying aviation activity measures;
Reviewing previous airport forecasts;
Gathering the various types of data;
Selecting the forecasting methodology;
Applying the forecast methods and evaluate the results; and
Comparing the forecast results with the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast.
The FAA has outlined several acceptable forecasting methodologies and the selected methodology should
be representative of the airport’s unique characteristics and the validity of the historical data. Some
common forecasting methodologies include:
Regression analysis – A statistical technique that ties aviation demand to economic
measures. Regression analysis should be restricted to relatively simple models with
independent variables for which reliable forecasts are available.
Trend analysis and extrapolation – Typically the historical pattern of an activity and
projects this trend into the future. This approach is useful where unusual local conditions
differentiate the study airport from other airports in the region.
Market share analysis or ration analysis – This technique assumes a top-down
relationship between national, regional, and local forecasts. Local forecasts are a market
share percentage of regional forecasts, which are a market share percentage of national
forecasts. Historical market shares are calculated and used as a basis for projecting future
market shares.
Smoothing – A statistical technique applied to historical data, given greater weight to the
latest trend and conditions at the airport; it can be effective in generating short-term
forecasts.
Expert Judgment – This effort simply looks to utilize a combination of the methods
presented above, but applies a level of expert judgment from local, regional and national
aviation industry knowledge.
Considering historical airport data inaccuracies and gaps, the forecast methodology used for this master
plan effort will incorporate Market Share analysis and Expert Judgment.
Over the life of a forecast, unanticipated events (trend breakers like September 11, 2001, Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome, Avian Flu, etc.) may take place that impact the anticipated activity levels at the
airport. It is critical that WVL consistently review the developed forecast to determine how those
unanticipated events impact the need for new or expanded facilities. The WVL Master Plan forecasts
were developed using:
Historical operations, instrument operations, and based aircraft data;
Federal Aviation Administration Aerospace Forecasts FY 2007-2020;
FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF); and
Maine State Aviation Systems Plan Update (MSASPU) forecast March 2006.
For airports with greater than 100,000 total annual operations, or 100 based aircraft the five and ten year
forecast must be approved by FAA prior to proceeding to the Facility Requirements analysis. The
forecasts developed for WVL will likely not attain those levels and therefore the FAA will only need to
review the forecasts and not formally approve them.
The City of Waterville Maine
Airport Role and Forecasts – Page 2-2
Airport Solutions Group, LLC & The Louis Berger Group, Inc. December 2011