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A comparative analysis of the US and EU retail banking markets - Wsbi

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In sharp contrast, <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> mortgage market is largely<br />

a securitised market, where <strong>the</strong> great majority <strong>of</strong><br />

mortgage funding originates from <strong>the</strong> capital <strong>markets</strong>.<br />

There have however been some questions over<br />

<strong>the</strong> future <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> mortgage market, given <strong>the</strong><br />

domination <strong>of</strong> state sponsored enterprises which<br />

benefit from a number <strong>of</strong> competitive advantages<br />

that distort market prices. It is widely said that <strong>the</strong><br />

regulation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> secondary mortgage market<br />

creates an undesirable government subsidy to<br />

mortgage lending.<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r issue in <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> mortgage market is <strong>the</strong> size<br />

<strong>and</strong> influence <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GSEs. Toge<strong>the</strong>r, Fannie Mae <strong>and</strong><br />

Freddie Mac have more than $2 trillion in debt<br />

outst<strong>and</strong>ing, <strong>and</strong> have guaranteed ano<strong>the</strong>r $3 trillion<br />

in mortgage-backed securities. In addition, <strong>the</strong>y have<br />

huge derivative positions to hedge <strong>the</strong>ir retained<br />

portfolios. Concerns have been raised about possible<br />

systemic risk to <strong>the</strong> financial system.<br />

Looking at <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> can give us a number <strong>of</strong> insights<br />

with regard to <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> secondary mortgage<br />

funding in Europe. If we consider for instance that<br />

<strong>the</strong> rise <strong>of</strong> securitisation in <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> came as a result <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> consequent lack <strong>of</strong> capital to finance mortgage<br />

loans following <strong>the</strong> 1980’s thrift crisis, it could be<br />

concluded, given that <strong>the</strong>re continues to be no such<br />

shortage <strong>of</strong> capital in Europe, that <strong>the</strong>re isn’t <strong>the</strong><br />

same need in Europe for similar extensive securitisation.<br />

In addition, we can consider that <strong>the</strong> interest rate<br />

instability that triggered <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> thrift crisis is not an<br />

issue in Europe today, where low <strong>and</strong> stable interest<br />

rates have become <strong>the</strong> norm.<br />

This hasn’t stopped a number <strong>of</strong> initiatives being<br />

established in Europe to attempt fur<strong>the</strong>r developing<br />

<strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> secondary mortgage <strong>markets</strong> by providing<br />

pan-European platforms. The two currently in existence<br />

are that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> European Mortgage Finance Agency,<br />

as mentioned above, <strong>and</strong> that <strong>of</strong> Kreditanstalt für<br />

Wiederaufbau (KFW), which is currently securitising<br />

<strong>retail</strong> mortgages <strong>of</strong> foreign banks via its Provide<br />

Platform.<br />

These two initiatives are in fact very much <strong>the</strong><br />

replication <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> GSE system as <strong>the</strong>y both rely<br />

on state backing. The EMFA would function with an<br />

<strong>EU</strong> guarantee, <strong>and</strong> KFW is a German bank that is<br />

80% owned by <strong>the</strong> German government <strong>and</strong> 20%<br />

by one <strong>of</strong> Germany’s Bundesländer.<br />

The question is whe<strong>the</strong>r any European platform could<br />

exist without a state or state-backed entity to take<br />

up <strong>the</strong> credit risk, given <strong>the</strong> difficulty for individual<br />

investors to assess loan quality in multi-origin loan<br />

portfolios.<br />

Yet, as experts in <strong>the</strong> <strong>EU</strong>’s Forum Group have made<br />

clear (as reported above) <strong>the</strong>re is no appetite in<br />

Europe ei<strong>the</strong>r from <strong>the</strong> Commission, or from experts<br />

in European mortgage credit <strong>markets</strong>, to have in<br />

place a state-backed system such as exists in <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong>.<br />

This means that mortgage loans in Europe will have<br />

to continue being funded on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

financial strength <strong>of</strong> banks or <strong>the</strong> intrinsic quality <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> securities.<br />

There is also <strong>the</strong> added dimension that state aid<br />

in <strong>the</strong> form <strong>of</strong> guarantees is in fact outlawed in<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>EU</strong> 317 .<br />

But if <strong>the</strong> trend <strong>of</strong> mortgage funding via MBS is<br />

anything to go by, it could be expected that a<br />

dem<strong>and</strong> lead push could in <strong>the</strong> future give rise to<br />

increased securitisation <strong>of</strong> mortgage loans at least at<br />

<strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> individual Member States.<br />

This trend could fur<strong>the</strong>r be accentuated if securitisation<br />

brings <strong>the</strong> promise <strong>of</strong> cheaper mortgage funding.<br />

Looking to <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> however reveals that in practice,<br />

such results are far from assured. The growth <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

securitisation <strong>of</strong> mortgage loans in <strong>the</strong> <strong>US</strong> has not<br />

narrowed <strong>the</strong> interest-rate spread between mortgage<br />

loans <strong>and</strong> Treasury bonds over <strong>the</strong> years. One possible<br />

explanation is that greater rates <strong>of</strong> mortgage<br />

prepayment have increased <strong>the</strong> prepayment risk<br />

inherent in mortgage backed securities contracts,<br />

<strong>of</strong>fsetting any reduction in <strong>the</strong> cost <strong>of</strong> financing<br />

mortgage loans 318 .<br />

317 Article 87 <strong>and</strong> 88 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> EC Treaty.<br />

318 “The costs <strong>and</strong> benefits <strong>of</strong> integration <strong>of</strong> <strong>EU</strong> mortgage <strong>markets</strong>”, London Economics, August 2005.<br />

120

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