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Grain Legumes and Green Manures for Soil Fertility in ... - cimmyt

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the <strong>in</strong>vestment costs <strong>in</strong>curred. The <strong>in</strong>vestment cost<br />

.<strong>for</strong> farmers who <strong>for</strong>go maize production<br />

(opportunity cost of the l<strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> terms of <strong>for</strong>gone<br />

maize gra<strong>in</strong>) is less than <strong>for</strong> those who fallow their<br />

l<strong>and</strong>s (mucuna production cost). This is due to very<br />

low maize yields achieved on the soils that are<br />

degraded.<br />

In Malawi, the opportunity cost of <strong>for</strong>go<strong>in</strong>g maize<br />

production is more than the production cost (on<br />

labour <strong>and</strong> seed) of grow<strong>in</strong>g mucuna <strong>in</strong> the<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment season. ' This expla<strong>in</strong>s why, unlike <strong>in</strong><br />

Zimbabwe, <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> mucuna is more attractive<br />

(better NPY) <strong>for</strong> farmers who fallow than <strong>for</strong><br />

farmers who have to <strong>for</strong>go maize production.<br />

The fact that NPY is positive is not the only criterion<br />

or factor that farmers may cOf\Sider <strong>in</strong> their decision<br />

to adopt mucuna. The magnitude of the NPY <strong>and</strong><br />

the risk<strong>in</strong>ess of the technology are additional factors<br />

farmers may consider <strong>in</strong> adoption of the mucuna<br />

technology.<br />

Significance of NPV<br />

To assess the magnitude of the NPY <strong>and</strong> its<br />

significance to farmers, the maize gra<strong>in</strong> equivalent<br />

value can be a simple benchmark <strong>in</strong>dicator. In<br />

Zimbabwe the NPYs ha-] <strong>for</strong> both types of farmers<br />

are worth about 1.1 t of additional maize gra<strong>in</strong> to<br />

the farmer's household over the mucuna-maizemaize<br />

rotation period (3 years) while <strong>in</strong> Malawi the<br />

NPYs ha-] are worth about 0.25 t of additional maize<br />

gra<strong>in</strong>. Whether these additional pay-offs 'are<br />

worthwhile or not will vary from farmer to farmer<br />

depend<strong>in</strong>g on their various socio-economic<br />

characteristics. However, an additional tonne of<br />

For farmers who fallow l<strong>and</strong>:<br />

#1 Maize <strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> price (K/kg) <br />

#2 Year 1 yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) <br />

#3 Discount<strong>in</strong>g factor <br />

#4 Year 2 yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) <br />

#5 Wage rate (K/day) <br />

#6 Mucuna labour (days). <br />

#7 Seed rate (Kg/ha) <br />

1#8<br />

Mucuna seed costs (K/kg)<br />

maize can be very mean<strong>in</strong>gful <strong>for</strong> many farmers<br />

who are faced with food <strong>in</strong>security <strong>and</strong> limited<br />

choices. Note that the additional cash dem<strong>and</strong>s <strong>for</strong><br />

labour <strong>and</strong> seed <strong>for</strong> <strong>in</strong>vest<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> mucuna are very<br />

modest compared to <strong>in</strong>put costs <strong>for</strong> grow<strong>in</strong>g maize.<br />

Sensitivity <strong>and</strong> Risk Assessment<br />

Farmers operate <strong>in</strong> an environment of risk <strong>and</strong><br />

uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty. In reality the expected maize yield<br />

<strong>in</strong>crease a'ssociated with mucuna, maize gra<strong>in</strong>. price<br />

<strong>and</strong> labour costs are not \ fixed but subject to<br />

changes. This makes it necessary to subject NPYs to<br />

sensitivity analysis to take <strong>in</strong>to account the<br />

uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties <strong>in</strong>herent <strong>in</strong> the elements of the NPYs.<br />

Results of risk analysis show that <strong>in</strong> general the<br />

technology is more risky to farmers who <strong>for</strong>ego<br />

maize produ~tion than farmers who fallow <strong>in</strong> both<br />

countries (see Appendix 4). There is a 30% <strong>and</strong> 38%<br />

chance <strong>in</strong> Zimbabwe <strong>and</strong> Malawi, respectively, that<br />

the NPY is negative <strong>for</strong> farmers who <strong>for</strong>go maize <strong>in</strong><br />

the <strong>in</strong>vestment year. For farmers who fallow,<br />

chances that the NPY is negative are about 10% <strong>in</strong><br />

both countries. The risk level of 30 <strong>and</strong> 38% of<br />

gett<strong>in</strong>g negative returns can be high to many<br />

smallholder farmers who are generally risk averse.<br />

This level of risk can be prohibitive to mucuna<br />

adoption by l<strong>and</strong> constra<strong>in</strong>ed smallholder' farmers<br />

<strong>in</strong> Malawi <strong>and</strong> Zimbabwe who are pressed with the<br />

need to produce maize every season. Farmers who<br />

alreaady fallow l<strong>and</strong> are there<strong>for</strong>e more likely to<br />

adopt mucuna as their <strong>in</strong>vestments <strong>in</strong> mucuna are<br />

less risky than <strong>for</strong> farmers who have to <strong>for</strong>ego<br />

maize production.<br />

The sensitivity analysis reveals that changes <strong>in</strong> the<br />

benefit elements are more<br />

Table 2. Sensitivity of NPVs to changes <strong>in</strong> costs <strong>and</strong> benefit elements<br />

Malawi<br />

Zimbabwe<br />

important <strong>in</strong> determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

the NPY than changes <strong>in</strong><br />

For non· fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers<br />

the cost elements <strong>for</strong><br />

Rank<br />

Element<br />

Regr Corr Rank<br />

Element Regr Corr fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers (Table<br />

#1 Forgone maize harvest (kg) ·0.67 ·0.72 #1 Forgone Maize harvest (kg) .0,60 .0.66 , 2). For farmers who fallow<br />

#2 Discount<strong>in</strong>g factor<br />

0.40 0.49 #2 Year 1maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) 0.55 0.57 l<strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> Malawi, changes <strong>in</strong><br />

the maize gra<strong>in</strong> price have<br />

#3 Year 1 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) 0.36 0.42 #3 Year 2 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) 0.41 0.15 the most <strong>in</strong>fluence on<br />

#4 Year 2 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) 0.31 0.27 #4 Discount<strong>in</strong>g Factor<br />

0.40 0.33<br />

#5 Maize <strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> price (K/kg) 0.09 0.06 #5 Maize gra<strong>in</strong> price (S/kg) 0.21 0.07<br />

0.64 0.52 #1 Discount<strong>in</strong>g factor 0.64 0.47<br />

0.57 0.67 #2 Maize <strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> price (S/kg) 0.57 0.42<br />

0.40 0.35 #3 Year 1 yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) 0.45 0.37<br />

0.35 0.25 #4 Year 2 yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) . 0.41 0.42<br />

·0:07 ·0.12 #5 Mucuna labour (hrs) 0.00 0.12<br />

0.00 ·0.06 #6 L<strong>and</strong> prep cost (S) 0.00 0.03<br />

0.00 0.08 #7 Wage rate (S/hr) 0.00 0.05<br />

0.00 ·0.06 #8 Seed rate (Kg/ha) 0.00 ·0.02<br />

#9 Mucuna seed costs (S/kg) 0.00 0.02<br />

NPY. The changes <strong>in</strong> year<br />

1 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crement,<br />

discount<strong>in</strong>g factor <strong>and</strong><br />

year 2 maize yield<br />

<strong>in</strong>crement are ranked <strong>in</strong><br />

th,at order as the<br />

additional factors<br />

positively related to NPY.<br />

For farmers who fallow<br />

l<strong>and</strong> <strong>in</strong> Zimbabwe, the<br />

discount<strong>in</strong>g factor is the<br />

most important factor<br />

positively related to NPY<br />

218<br />

<strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>Legumes</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Green</strong> <strong>Manures</strong>· <strong>for</strong> <strong>Soil</strong> <strong>Fertility</strong> <strong>in</strong> Southern Africa

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