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Grain Legumes and Green Manures for Soil Fertility in ... - cimmyt

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Appendix 3. Distribution Functions <strong>for</strong> uncerta<strong>in</strong> Mucuna cost <strong>and</strong> benefit elements used <strong>in</strong> simulat<strong>in</strong>g NPV distributions <strong>for</strong> Zimbabwean<br />

<strong>and</strong> Malawian farmers<br />

Zimbabwe<br />

Malawi<br />

Parameter Distribution function Parameter Distribution funciion<br />

Benefits:<br />

Benefits:<br />

Year 1 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) Triang.(O 945 2500) Year 1 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) Triang.(O 13502500)<br />

Year 2 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) Triang.(O 2196 2500) Year 2 maize yield <strong>in</strong>crease (kg) Triang.(O 305 2000)<br />

Discount<strong>in</strong>g factor Triang.(O.5 0.666 1) Discount<strong>in</strong>g.factor Triang.(0.5 0.746 1)<br />

Maize <strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> price ($/kg) Triang.(3 4.5 10) Maize <strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> price (K/kg) Triang.(3512)<br />

Costs:<br />

Mucuna labour (hrs) Triang.(105 107.18 110) Mucuna labour (days) Triang.(82 8486)<br />

l<strong>and</strong> prep cost ($) Triang.(800 900 1500) Wage rate (K/day) Triang.(24 26 35)<br />

Wage rate ($/hr) Triang.(5 6.75 10) Seed rate (Kg/ha) Triang.(78 80 82)<br />

I Seed rate (Kg/ha) Triang.(78 80 82) Mucuna seed costs (K/kg) Triang.(20 27 30)<br />

I<br />

i<br />

Mucuna seed costs ($/kg) Triang.(5 79) Maize harvest <strong>for</strong>gone (kg) Triang.(800 951 .5 1500)<br />

Maize harvest <strong>for</strong>gone Triang.(300 3131000)<br />

Costs:<br />

Appendix 4. NPV Cumulative distribution curves <strong>in</strong> Zimbabwe <strong>and</strong> Malawi generated by @risk4.5<br />

Prob.<br />

0.6<br />

10 15<br />

0.6<br />

0.4<br />

0.2<br />

0<br />

·2 8 10 12 14<br />

Thous<strong>and</strong> ZM$<br />

Non-fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers ZIMBABWE Fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers<br />

Prob. 0.6 0.6<br />

0.6 0.6<br />

0.4 0.4<br />

0.2 0.2<br />

o<br />

0<br />

·5 20<br />

·10 .0 0 15 20 25<br />

Thous<strong>and</strong>MK<br />

NPV<br />

NPV<br />

Fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers MALAWI Non-fallow<strong>in</strong>g farmers<br />

<strong>Gra<strong>in</strong></strong> <strong>Legumes</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Green</strong> <strong>Manures</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>Soil</strong> <strong>Fertility</strong> <strong>in</strong> Southern Africa 221

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